The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0726 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds climb as the U.S.-Iran conflict drives up oil prices, raising inflation risk. Investors are concerned that the prolonged hostilities could push up inflation and cause the Bank of England to increase interest rates. Ten-year gilt yields climb 4.4 basis points to last trade at 4.994%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0717 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields rise in opening trade, in line with U.S. Treasury yields, as higher oil prices reignite inflationary fears. The significant military escalation between the U.S. and Iran has driven Brent oil back above $90 per barrel, last trading 3.2% higher at $90.91. The rise in oil prices will concern policymakers at the European Central Bank ahead of Thursday's decision. However, money markets continue to suggest the ECB won't raise rates until September, LSEG data show. Yields on the 10-year German Bund, maturing in August 2036, rises 2.2 basis points to 3.145%, while the increase is slightly more on bonds of eurozone peers, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0705 GMT - AI could have more immediate inflationary impact in South Korea and Taiwan, which are upstream hardware suppliers, HSBC economists say in a research note. Bottlenecks in high‑tech components and logistics are lifting producer prices in these key upstream markets, they say. Central banks in Korea and Taiwan could have to tighten monetary policies in response to the inflation, they say. HSBC expects one additional hike from each bank by the end of this year. Meanwhile, there could be upside risk for further tightening in 2027, depending on the extent of pass-through from surging AI exports into domestic activity, they add.(sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0658 GMT - Bitcoin falls slightly as an escalation in the Middle East conflict weighs on risk appetite. The U.S. military announced a ninth consecutive night of attacks targeting Iran late Sunday after a U.S. service member was killed. "With no important U.S. data scheduled today, bitcoin's direction will depend mainly on exchange traded fund flows, the dollar, Treasury yields, geopolitical developments and progress toward clearer crypto regulation," Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam says in a note. Bitcoin falls 1.0% to $63,845, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0653 GMT - The dollar trades steady, showing little reaction to an escalation in strikes between the U.S. and Iran. The U.S. military announced a ninth consecutive night of attacks late Sunday, pushing oil prices higher. "In part, we think markets are now more comfortable with the risks stemming from disrupted energy supply," Monex Europe analysts say in a note. With the U.S. economy likely to slow in coming months, a modest pullback in the dollar "looks fair to us," they say. The DXY dollar index trades flat at 100.761. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0612 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise across maturities in European trade, reflecting an escalation of the Middle East conflict and a subsequent rise in oil prices. "President Trump's defense of expanded U.S. strikes on Iran has strengthened fears that the confrontation could last longer or move beyond its original objectives," Zaye Capital Markets CIO Naeem Aslam says in a note. Trump's remarks matter for oil because any escalation near production facilities, export terminals or key shipping routes could remove barrels from the global market before producers can replace them, Aslam says. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is up 2.9 basis points at 4.569%, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0611 GMT - OpenAI and Anthropic have reached extraordinary valuations and are both reportedly considering public listings. Valuations rest on the assumption that AI spending will continue expanding, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, market strategist at Swissquote. The problem is that Chinese AI models are said to cost up to 100 times less, which could force U.S. providers to reduce prices, she says. Lower prices would compress revenue expectations, making the current eye-watering valuations increasingly difficult to justify. The mismatch is already striking, she adds. OpenAI is generating roughly US$25 billion in annualised revenue against an US$852 billion valuation, she says.(james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0608 GMT - Energy prices and headline risks are likely to remain the key drivers for Bunds, curves and spreads ahead of the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision, Commerzbank's Rainer Guntermann says in a note. German 10-year Bund yields could test last week's highs at 3.16%, but these levels may also provide some support, the rates strategist says. Brent oil last trades at $90.57, up 2.80%. On Friday, the 10-year Bund yield closed at 3.123%, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0601 GMT - Rising oil prices leave another interest-rate hike by the European Central Bank in the offing for September, which is also fully priced in, Commerzbank's Rainer Guntermann says in a note. ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to strike a firm tone with regard to inflation risks, the rates strategist says ahead of the ECB's monetary policy decision Thursday. Lagarde, however, is unlikely to precommit to a September hike, as the situation remains in flux amid rising headwinds to growth, Guntermann says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0551 GMT - The war between the U.S. and Iran continues to put pressure on oil prices as well as global rates, bond yields and monetary policy expectations, Danske Bank's Kristoffer Kjaer Lomholt says in a note. As a result, the 10-year German Bund yield is back above 3%, while 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is above 5%, says the director for fixed income and FX research. Brent crude oil has risen above $90 per barrel. Danske continues to expect one more interest-rate hike from the European Central Bank in 2026 after a 25bp increase in June. It considers the outright levels for yields and rates as looking attractive, expecting the 3% level for 10-year Bunds to hold. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0549 GMT - The Indian rupee and several other Asian currencies weaken against the dollar amid rising oil prices. Major net oil importers such as India are widely perceived to be extremely vulnerable to higher oil prices, which typically stoke inflationary pressures. "Risks are to the upside [for India's inflation] given renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran," Capital Economics' Shilan Shah says in recent commentary. "Developments in the Middle East have put the Indian rupee under renewed downward pressure," the deputy chief emerging markets economist adds. The dollar is 0.2% higher at 96.4650 rupees after earlier touching 96.4725 rupees, its highest intraday level since May 21, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0537 GMT - For the time being, foreign investors from the private sector have apparently returned to the role they have played for many years as stable net buyers of U.S. Treasurys, LBBW's Elmar Voelker says in a note. "In our view, the latter was temporarily in doubt during the second half of 2025--that is, in the aftermath of U.S. President Trump's so-called 'Liberation Day'," the senior fixed-income analyst says. LBBW gets the impression that the increased global uncertainty in the financial markets in the wake of the war in Iran has reanimated the role of U.S. Treasurys as a safe haven, for now at least. "This finding is consistent with the sharp appreciation of the U.S. dollar relative to other major currencies since the end of February 2026." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 20, 2026 03:26 ET (07:26 GMT)
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