The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0812 GMT - Recent renewed optimism on Germany's chemical manufacturer BASF is premature, since much remains uncertain around the continued conflict in the Middle East, J.P Morgan analysts say in a research note. Chemical producers in Asia, who were typically more exposed to the Strait of Hormuz for the sourcing of oil and naphtha--the key oil-based feedstock for petrochemicals--prior to the conflict, have shown greater flexibility in sourcing from alternative regions than was originally expected, the analysts say. This means that oversupply in the chemical industry might persist even in a tighter feedstock market, with potential for an even greater margin pressure, they add. Shares trade 0.2% higher at 48.49 euros. (nina.kienle@wsj.com)
0756 GMT - Gold prices slip below $4,000 a troy ounce and are on track for a weekly decline of more than 3%. Escalating hostilities between the U.S. and Iran are fueling fears that higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated and prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. "The recent price action suggests that markets are placing greater weight on the prospect of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates than on gold's traditional safe-haven demand, leaving gold vulnerable unless geopolitical risks translate into a broader deterioration in financial market sentiment," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. In early trading, New York gold futures rise 0.1% to $3,996.80 an ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0757 GMT - Oil prices are on track for a weekly gain of more than 10% as the U.S. and Iran step up attacks and raise fears of broader regional disruptions. "The renewed disruption has interrupted the recent recovery in regional supply, reviving concerns about tighter global markets," Saxo Bank analysts say. "The impact has been most acute in refined products, with diesel and gasoline prices surging, pushing U.S. refining margins to record highs and increasing the risk of higher fuel costs for consumers." On Thursday, the U.S. struck multiple bridges in Iran in an effort to cut off supply routes to a port city and naval base in the Strait of Hormuz that Iran uses to attack ships, The Wall Street Journal reported. Brent crude rises 0.4% to $84.57 a barrel, while WTI futures are up 0.8% to $79.58 a barrel. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0727 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds fall, reversing Thursday's rise, as oil prices stabilize and inflation concerns ease. Oil prices are more contained than they were at the start of the week, providing relief over inflation fears, particularly after recent weaker-than-forecast U.S. inflation data. Demand for safe-haven assets such as government bonds also pushes yields lower as hostilities between the U.S. and Iran continue. Ten-year gilt yields fall 3.6 basis points to last trade at 4.938%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0718 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields fall in early trade, tracking U.S. Treasury yields lower. Oil prices edge slightly higher but their rise is limited, with Brent crude trading at $84.55 per barrel, still significantly below the Middle East war-time peak of $126.41 on April 30. The data calendar is light on Friday, although eurozone balance of payments data for May and final harmonized CPI data for June are due for release. There is no government bond issuance due. The yield on the August 2036-dated Bund yield falls 1.8 basis points to 3.120%, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0711 GMT - The resumption of the Middle East war begs the question of what has been achieved, says Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP. Iran is arguably now stronger having proved it can block the strait, its government is more hardline, there is no resolution to its nuclear ambitions and it still has missiles and drones, he adds. There are parallels with the Ukraine and Vietnam wars that showed a superior military power can be challenged, though they didn't threaten the global economy to the same degree, he adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0641 GMT - The dollar edges lower as oil prices stabilize after rising recently, even as hostilities between the U.S. and Iran continue. Oil prices have risen due to renewed Middle East conflict, which should typically benefit the dollar because the U.S. is a net oil exporter. However, weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer-price and producer-price inflation figures have sent confusing signals and leave the dollar struggling for direction, Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur says in a note. "In addition to the rise in oil prices, there are also falling inflation numbers, which point in a different direction," he says. The DXY dollar index edges down 0.1% to 100.689 as the price of a barrel of Brent crude is steady at $84.25. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)
0615 GMT - Danske Bank expects the euro to gradually weaken against the dollar over the coming months. The bank's analysts forecast the euro to trade at $1.13 in six months and at $1.12 in 12 months, they write in a note. Danske had already downgraded its forecast for the euro versus the dollar in May when it perceived a structural shift in relative macro and monetary policy drivers. "The moderation in energy prices is euro-positive in isolation, but the fact that EUR/USD has still declined over the past month supports our view that the cross will be driven lower by more long-term factors," they say. The euro trades steady at $1.1441. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0537 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields decline in Asian trade, while Brent oil prices rise, continuing to trade around the $85-per-barrel level amid ongoing hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. The two-year yield falls 2 bps to 4.136%; the 10-year yield is down 2 bps to 4.548%, and 30-year yield falls 1.4 bps to 5.083%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 17, 2026 04:14 ET (08:14 GMT)
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