Micron Technology has become a key artificial-intelligence trade bellwether. Now analysts are trying to game out what peak earnings will look like for Micron if the AI cycle continues.
A Trivariate Research analyst team, led by Adam Parker, on Thursday called Micron "the most important stock in the market," writing that shares of the memory-chip maker have become a "proxy for the AI cycle and risk-taking."
The research firm set about looking at what peak earnings will look like for Micron.
The firm forecasts that as the AI cycle continues, which is estimated to last four years, peak earnings for Micron will be in 2028 or 2029.
Micron could see earnings of around $147 a share in 2028, according to the firm's base case estimate. However, if the AI cycle continues at a stronger-than-expected clip for longer, the company's peak earnings could be above $225 in 2029.
For comparison, Micron reported 2025 earnings of $8.29. The Wall Street consensus calls for earnings of $73.20 in 2026, $153.63 in 2027, $166.45 in 2028, $184.98 in 2029, and $264.67 in 2030, according to FactSet.
Micron stock fell 6.4% to $846.65 on Thursday, extending its losses from the previous session when it declined 8%. Shares closed at a record high of $1,213.56 on June 25, but have declined 30% since then, wiping out $414.95 billion in market value in that time.
The drop comes in the context of a 648% increase over the past 12 months. Such gains have left shareholders extremely nervous about any signs of a shift in the cyclical memory-chip business.
"We think MU is a buy, from a simulated peak and normalized EPS perspective. We certainly would not want a big underweight here to hurt our performance," Parker wrote.
Write to Kit Norton at kit.norton@barrons.com
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July 16, 2026 14:50 ET (18:50 GMT)
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