George Noble warns AI bubble crash could be 17x worse than dot-com

cryptonews02:26

Former Fidelity fund manager George Noble has warned that an AI bubble crash could cause 17 times more damage than the dot-com collapse, which erased about $5 trillion from the Nasdaq. Summary ...

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Their declines came as investors questioned whether the revenue generated by AI services would justify the industry’s expanding infrastructure bill, according to the report.In its warning, IBM said spending on AI infrastructure was pulling corporate budgets away from software, contributing to weaker-than-expected revenue growth. The selloff erased tens of billions of dollars from IBM’s market value and weighed on other software and information technology stocks, according to the report.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"crypto.news","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","BK4579":"人工智能","VTHR":"Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF","BK4538":"云计算","BK4588":"碎股","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU1883839398.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS INCOME OPPORTUNITIES \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4134":"信息科技咨询与其它服务","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","QTOC":"Innovator Growth Accelerated Plus ETF - October","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","BK4543":"AI","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","BK4612":"AI芯片","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0321505439.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Acc SGD","LU1880398554.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1880398471.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","SKYY":"First Trust Cloud Computing ETF","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","BK4602":"量子计算概念","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","VGT":"信息技术ETF-Vanguard","BK4575":"芯片概念","NBL":"诺贝尔能源","IBM":"IBM","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU1430594728.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Low Volatility Equity AS SGD","MMAT":"Meta Materials Inc.","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","TDIV":"第一信托纳斯达克科技股利指数基金"},"translate_title":"乔治·诺布尔警告人工智能泡沫崩溃可能比互联网严重 17 倍","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TDIV":0.6,"VTHR":1.5,"CHAT":1.5,"AGIX":1.5,"IBM":0.9,"QTOC":1.5,"SKYY":0.6,"MMAT":1.5,"VGT":0.9,"NBL":1.5,"AIPO":1.5,"ARTY":1.5},"content_text":"Former Fidelity fund manager George Noble has warned that an AI bubble crash could cause 17 times more damage than the dot-com collapse, which erased about $5 trillion from the Nasdaq.\n\n\nSummary\n\n\n\nGeorge Noble warns an AI crash could cause 17 times more damage than the dot-com collapse.\nPolymarket traders have raised the odds of an AI bubble bursting in 2026 above 17%.\nDalio and the U.S. Treasury identify liquidity and economic links as key risks.\n\n\n\nAccording to Polymarket, the probability of an AI bubble bursting in 2026 has climbed above 17% after recently falling from 30% to 14%. Contracts using different resolution criteria placed the likelihood between 16% and 24% as traders weighed falling technology shares, revenue concerns, and weakness across global markets.\nNoble tied his forecast to the large sums flowing into AI infrastructure, arguing that the financial fallout could extend far beyond technology companies if expected returns fail to arrive.\n“The fallout from this could really be much more significant,” Noble said while discussing the rise in AI capital spending.\n\n\n\nAI bubble odds have rebounded above 17%\nFresh pressure on semiconductor and technology shares has added to those concerns. The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. stock futures fell on Thursday as AI-related anxiety spread from Asian markets, where SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics dropped almost 9%.\nBoth South Korean chipmakers plan to spend billions of dollars on semiconductor plants and AI capacity. Their declines came as investors questioned whether the revenue generated by AI services would justify the industry’s expanding infrastructure bill, according to the report.\nIBM has added to the unease after its shares suffered their steepest daily fall since 1968, dropping almost 25% earlier this week. Market data cited in the report showed IBM closing another 2.7% lower at $211.20 on Wednesday, taking its decline over several sessions past 26%.\nIn its warning, IBM said spending on AI infrastructure was pulling corporate budgets away from software, contributing to weaker-than-expected revenue growth. The selloff erased tens of billions of dollars from IBM’s market value and weighed on other software and information technology stocks, according to the report.\nA draft U.S. Treasury Department report has also examined how an AI downturn could move through the economy. Drawing on research from the University of Texas at Austin cited by NOTUS, the report found that AI companies have become more closely linked to the U.S. economy than internet companies were during the dot-com period.\nUnder the report’s downside scenario, disappointing productivity or profits could hurt private credit, chipmakers, cloud providers, electric utilities, and companies financing data centers. The Treasury did not predict an imminent crash, but it listed electricity shortages, financing limits, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions among the risks facing the sector.\nCash demands could expose inflated AI valuations\nRay Dalio has separately argued that liquidity, rather than weak technology, could break the AI boom. During a television interview reported by Bloomberg, the Bridgewater Associates founder explained that investors often mistake rising asset values for money they can readily spend.\nDalio used private companies to illustrate the risk: a business can receive a billion-dollar valuation after raising far less in actual capital, but shareholders cannot use that paper wealth without selling. In his assessment, stress would emerge if many investors attempted to turn those valuations into cash at the same time.\nBernstein and Cummings have pointed to another pressure building beneath the boom. In a recent Substack post, the economists wrote that the AI bubble was “still inflating,” while technology investment had reached nearly 5% of U.S. GDP, above levels recorded during the dot-com era.\nTheir analysis also found that large technology companies were committing enough capital to AI projects to reduce their cash reserves. Combined with Noble’s warning and Dalio’s liquidity concerns, those figures leave investors focused on whether AI earnings can catch up with the money already committed to the sector.\n\n\n\n\n\n                Read more:\n            \nStrategy CEO Phong Le ties new Bitcoin buys to STRC rebound","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.45.2","shortVersion":"4.45.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2652429776","isCrawlerRequest":true}