MARKET WRAPS
Stocks:
European shares were up Monday as oil climbed on escalating hostilities between the U.S. and Iran.
The U.S. military announced a ninth consecutive night of attacks late Sunday, pushing Brent oil back above $90 per barrel.
"In part, we think markets are now more comfortable with the risks
stemming from disrupted energy supply," Monex Europe said.
The rise in oil prices will concern policymakers at the European Central Bank ahead of Thursday's decision. However, money markets continue to suggest the ECB won't raise rates until September, LSEG data show.
ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to strike a firm tone with regard to inflation risks, Commerzbank said. Lagarde, however, is unlikely to precommit to a September hike , as the situation remains in flux amid rising headwinds to growth.
"Oil has moved far enough to trouble central banks, but not far enough for markets to treat the shock as fully priced," Tickmill Group said. "That is an uncomfortable middle ground."
In the U.K., Andy Burnham is poised to become prime minister on Monday, following Keir Starmer's resignation from the role. Investors will be eager to find out the new cabinet members on Burnham's team as this could indicate the direction of future public spending and taxation plans.
The market appears to be betting that the period of political turmoil and recurring scandals in recent years is coming to an end, Commerzbank said. However, Burnham needs to revive the economy while consolidating the public finances.
U.S. Markets:
Stock futures were up Monday after major indexes declined last week, as tech stocks sold off.
The week ahead is a relatively quiet one for U.S. economic data but investors will scrutinize any evidence of how the economy is performing ahead of the next Federal Reserve announcement on July 29.
Forex:
The euro rose.
A tighter correlation between energy prices and short-dated euro swap rates seems to be supporting the euro as the Middle East conflict escalates, ING said.
The dollar traded steady, showing little reaction to an escalation in strikes between the U.S. and Iran.
Sterling rose
as Andy Burnham is set to become the U.K.'s prime minister Monday. It completes a surprisingly smooth transition of power from Keir Starmer who announced his resignation as prime minister last month, Commerzbank said.
Bonds:
Eurozone government bond yields rose in opening trade, in line with Treasury yields, as higher oil prices reignite inflationary fears.
Treasury yields rose
across maturities in European trade, reflecting an escalation of the Middle East conflict and a subsequent rise in oil prices. "President Trump's defense of expanded U.S. strikes on Iran has strengthened fears that the confrontation could last longer or move beyond its original objectives," Zaye Capital Markets said.
The war between the U.S. and Iran continues to put pressure on oil prices as well as global rates, bond yields and monetary policy expectations, Danske Bank said. As a result, the 10-year Bund yield is back above 3% , while 30-year Treasury yield is above 5%.
The inflation impact on bond yields is more important than fiscal considerations, said AXA IM Core. Elevated levels of government bond supply
will be more easily absorbed if investors buying the bonds are confident of maintaining the real value of their investments.
Energy:
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was up 3.2% in early trading on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate gained 2.8%.
Metals:
Gold prices dropped as escalating attacks between the U.S. and Iran pushed Brent crude back above $90 a barrel, reinforcing concerns over inflation concerns despite softer U.S. inflation data.
Gold chart
Comex gold futures were likely to remain in a bearish technical setup, based on the daily chart, RHB Retail Research said.
Copper
Copper rose in early trade. Copper prices were likely to be driven by sentiment around artificial intelligence, which is increasingly shaping expectations for future power and copper demand, Goldman Sachs Research said.
Iron
Iron ore fell in early trade. Broader demand for the ferrous metal remains weak, with China's structural slowdown in steel consumption showing little sign of reversing without targeted policy support, ANZ Research said.
EMEA HEADLINES
ECB to Hold Rates Steady as Rebound in Energy Prices Threatens to Revive Inflation
The European Central Bank is expected to keep its key interest rate on hold Thursday, but might signal that further rises in borrowing costs are possible after an escalation of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran pushed energy prices higher.
In June, the bank raised its key rate for the first time since 2023 to 2.25% from 2%, as policymakers judged that the surge in energy costs prompted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was too strong to ignore.
Prologis Says Segro Rejected Sweetened $18.2 Billion Offer
Prologis said Segro has rejected a sweetened third takeover offer that values the company around 13.5 billion pounds, equivalent to $18.16 billion.
The world's largest owner of industrial real estate said Monday that a third offer was rejected on July 17. This followed a second approach, which was rejected days prior on July 12. The revised offers come amid a flurry of trans-Atlantic dealmaking that has resulted in some of the longest-standing members of the London Stock Exchange leaving the bourse.
Ryanair Shares Fall After Profit Drops on Lower Fares, Fuel-Cost Headwinds
Shares in Ryanair slid after the budget carrier posted a drop in fiscal first-quarter profit, hit by lower fares and fuel-cost headwinds stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.
In European morning trade, shares were 6.5% lower at 24.28 euros, and are down 18% so far this year.
Telecom Italia's Board Backs Poste Italiane's Nearly $15 Billion Bid
Telecom Italia said its board of directors supported an offer from Poste Italiane, the group's biggest shareholder, to take full control through a bid valued at more than 13 billion euros ($14.87 billion) just ahead of its formal launch.
The Italian telecommunications company, also known as TIM, said Saturday that its board viewed favorably the rationale and industrial prospects of the deal, and deemed the price to be fair.
GLOBAL NEWS
Everyday Investors Are Over the Mag Seven and Into New AI Darlings
If the artificial-intelligence boom is a gold rush, Alex Cardona wants to start digging outside the usual spots.
That's the strategy the 50-year-old director at a software company had in mind when he dedicated a chunk of his portfolio to investing in AI infrastructure firms such as data-center operator Equinix and semiconductor company Marvell Technology.
Volatility Is Climbing-and a New Margin Rule May Be Adding Fuel
Retail investors are in love with leverage. In June, margin debt hit a record high of $1.5 trillion, up 49% from a year ago, according to the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Experts say that the rise in leverage is amplifying volatility in retail-favorite stocks and heightening the risk of forced selloffs.
What Comes After Merck's Keytruda? The Race for the Next Standard Cancer Treatment.
For many cancers now, the standard treatment is chemotherapy plus an immunotherapy such as Merck's Keytruda, the best-selling drug in the world. But many patients eventually relapse and Keytruda patents start peeling off in 2028.
What's the next standard treatment?
Oil Climbs as U.S.-Iran Attacks Escalate, With Brent Back Above $90
Oil surged above $90 a barrel for the first time in more than a month after the U.S. and Iran sharply escalated hostilities over the weekend, deepening a conflict that has spread across the Middle East and threatening prolonged disruption to global energy markets.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was up 3.2% to $90.93 a barrel in early trading on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate gained 2.8% to $84.05 a barrel. European natural-gas prices also jumped, topping 60 euros a megawatt-hour.
FDA Walks Back Finding of Cyclospora Parasite as Outbreak Probe Continues
Taylor Farms said that the Food and Drug Administration has apologized after the agency walked back an earlier statement that the parasite linked to an outbreak affecting thousands of people had been detected on a sample of its lettuce.
The FDA on Sunday said it has yet to identify the presence of cyclospora on samples of lettuce from the company despite recent tests. The agency now deems the detection that it reported Saturday a false positive after laboratory experts reviewed the sample results.
China's Campaign to Suffocate Taiwan Is Hitting Children's Choirs and Baristas
TAIPEI-Beijing is sparing no effort as it applies its formidable diplomatic pressure to squeezing Taiwan on the global stage.
Chinese officials have pushed African allies to block Taiwan's president from flying through their airspace and revoked entry visas for officials trying to attend global conferences, according to Taipei.
Write to priscila.barrera@wsj.com
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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 20, 2026 04:58 ET (08:58 GMT)
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