The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1213 ET - Consumer sentiment measured by The University of Michigan's index improved to 54.4 in its initial July reading due to a retreat in gasoline prices. However, the recent re-escalation in the Middle East will threaten momentum in the weeks ahead, according to a note from Oxford Economics. "Renewed conflict in the Middle East threatens to chip away at that progress in the final July reading," the note says. Inflation expectations also held steady in the long-run in July, which is a good sign for Fed officials who watch the measure to ensure price pressures do not become more embedded. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
0952 ET - Euro-denominated credit could get a boost given that investor demand remains strong and issuance is expected to slow in the summer, Societe Generale's Juan Valencia says in a note. Credit spreads could inch tighter gradually given the favorable conditions, he says. The Middle East conflict poses a risk to credit markets, but the outlook stays positive for now, Valencia says. "We think the credit markets will remain resilient for longer." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0915 ET - European natural gas prices have climbed to their highest level since late March and are on track for a weekly gain of more than 18%. According to Commerzbank, prices are being supported not only by concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, low European gas storage, and strong Asian LNG demand, but also by two new risks: the partial outage at the U.S. Freeport LNG terminal until at least the end of August--which primarily supplies Europe, accounting for 60%-70% of its LNG exports--and forecast U.S. heatwaves that are expected to boost domestic gas demand, reducing LNG available for export. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 5.1% at 57.72 euros a megawatt-hour.(giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0905 ET - Treasury yields edge lower as the economy remains solid despite lingering geopolitical tension. President Trump raises doubts about the U.S. electoral process in a televised speech Thursday night. Residential construction accelerates more than expected in June, while the import price index cools down. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to tick higher to 50.5 from 49.5, in a WSJ survey. Oil futures rise more than 2%. The WSJ Dollar Index climbs 0.1%. The 10-year yield is at 4.533%, down from yesterday's settle of 4.568%. The two-year slips to 4.143% from 4.155%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0846 ET - Crude futures are higher and on track for hefty weekly gains as the U.S. continues its strikes against Iranian military targets, and Iran fires at sites in other Gulf countries. "We still consider that the escalation in the war between the U.S. and Iran is consistent with our baseline view that the recovery in oil flows would be bumpy and punctuated by flare-ups," Kieran Tompkins of Capital Economics says in a note. "That said, recent events have markedly raised the chances of a more adverse scenario where oil flows are constrained for another sustained period." WTI is up 2.6% at $80.97 a barrel and Brent gains 2.4% to $86.22.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0841 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are steady after recent declines on a milder weather outlook and soft LNG feedgas flows. "Natural gas appears to have found some footing as the market awaits a full return to service of the Freeport LNG terminal as well as more heat for the south and west next week," Gary Cunningham of Tradition Energy says in a note. The Nymex August contract will need "significant help" from the weather to get back toward the $3 level, "but the freefall towards $2.70 looks to have been belayed at least for now," he adds. Natural gas is up 0.1% at $2.861/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0824 ET - Oil prices extend gains in early U.S. trade, with Brent crude up 2.1% to $86.02 a barrel and WTI futures rising 2.4% to $80.15 a barrel. Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran are curbing flows through the Strait of Hormuz and raising fears of a full-blown conflict as the two sides attack energy infrastructure in the Gulf region. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the gateway to the Red Sea that market watchers fear could become a target for Yemen's Houthi rebels. While in February just under 3.9 million barrels a day were transported through this strait, the figure rose to about 7.2 million barrels in April, highlighting the growing importance of the shipping route, analysts at Commerzbank say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0631 ET - A fall in U.S. Treasury yields accelerates in European trade as oil prices stabilize. The dollar is stable as safe-haven demand due to concerns about conflict in the Middle East is offset by reduced expectations for U.S. interest-rate hikes. "The U.S, dollar remained broadly stable as investors balanced safe-haven demand against moderating expectations for Federal Reserve tightening," Kudo.com's Konstantinos Chrysikos says in a note. The two-year Treasury yield falls 3.2 basis points to 4.122%, while the 10-year Treasury yield declines 4 basis points to 4.528%, according to Tradeweb. Brent is up 1.8% at $85.77, but stays around recent levels. The DXY dollar index is flat at 100.797. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0455 ET - BlueBay Asset Management has been tactically buying 10-year German Bund yields at yields around 3.12% over the past week, fixed income CIO Mark Dowding says in a note. Unlike other major central banks, the European Central Bank hiked interest rates early in response to higher energy prices. This could help prevent a rise in medium-term inflation expectations and alleviate the potential for more aggressive policy action later, Dowding says. "In this light, we continue to favour European yields, relative to those in the U.S.," he says. The asset manager also adds exposure to U.S. inflation swaps at attractive levels following below-forecast June inflation data. The 10-year Bund yield falls 1.7 basis points to 3.120%, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0442 ET - SMA Solar Technologies faces a highly favorable scenario if the U.S. and EU decide to implement a ban on Chinese large-scale inverters--electrical devices used in renewable-energy projects--and battery storage systems, Jefferies analysts say in a note. The solar energy equipment supplier's 2H pipeline remains solid due to strong battery energy storage systems demand, and a government ban would force Western developers to find non-Chinese alternatives. Jefferies' upside scenario assumes a more favorable regulatory environment, particularly in the U.S., which supports solid growth in utility scale orders and assumes a significant uptick in storage orders from Europe. "We also anticipate this to lead to a re-rating," the analysts say. Shares are up 10% at 64 euros.(anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com)
0412 ET - Recent renewed optimism on Germany's chemical manufacturer BASF is premature, since much remains uncertain around the continued conflict in the Middle East, J.P Morgan analysts say in a research note. Chemical producers in Asia, who were typically more exposed to the Strait of Hormuz for the sourcing of oil and naphtha--the key oil-based feedstock for petrochemicals--prior to the conflict, have shown greater flexibility in sourcing from alternative regions than was originally expected, the analysts say. This means that oversupply in the chemical industry might persist even in a tighter feedstock market, with potential for an even greater margin pressure, they add. Shares trade 0.2% higher at 48.49 euros. (nina.kienle@wsj.com)
0356 ET - Gold prices slip below $4,000 a troy ounce and are on track for a weekly decline of more than 3%. Escalating hostilities between the U.S. and Iran are fueling fears that higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated and prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. "The recent price action suggests that markets are placing greater weight on the prospect of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates than on gold's traditional safe-haven demand, leaving gold vulnerable unless geopolitical risks translate into a broader deterioration in financial market sentiment," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. In early trading, New York gold futures rise 0.1% to $3,996.80 an ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 17, 2026 12:14 ET (16:14 GMT)
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