The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0926 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower with LNG maintenance still curbing feedgas flows and a softer outlook for near-term power-sector demand. Heat and smoke from Canadian wildfires cleared over the northeast, raising solar energy output and lowering electricity demand, although Texas will see some triple-digit "feels like" temperatures by mid-week, Gary Cunningham of Tradition Energy says in a note. "Outlooks for power-sector demand and continued maintenance at LNG export terminals are simply too bearish for a rally," he adds. "The August contract is likely range bound between $2.80 and $2.95 until something changes." Nymex gas for August delivery is off 1% at $2.882/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0920 ET - Oil futures pull back from the overnight highs reached on the military escalation in the Middle East as Iran says it has received proposals from mediators for a return to negotiations. Stepped up U.S. and Iranian strikes at the weekend pushed Brent and WTI to their highest levels in more than a month. "This movie has been seen before and as retail gasoline prices lift back up while Iranian oil revenue is again cut back, both sides will be looking for an off-ramp," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. WTI is up 0.2% at $82.68 a barrel and Brent is up 0.6% at $88.66. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0900 ET - Interest-rate differentials have moved against the dollar, Societe Generale's Kit Juckes says in a note. "The market now prices a 90% chance of an European Central Bank [rate] hike in September (with a further adjustment expected after this week's meeting) and a 70% chance of a Federal Reserve hike." The ECB is more sensitive to oil prices due to its primary mandate to maintain price stability. That provides some cushion to the euro from rising oil prices in response to the Middle East conflict. While this isn't sustainable, investors betting on a higher dollar will need to be patient, he says. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 100.861.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0837 ET - Sterling and U.K. government bond yields are little moved after Andy Burnham pledged to improve cost of living in his first speech as prime minister. He promised to end rough sleeping, help more young people into work and build more council homes. Burnham said he would set out some of his measures, including how to pay for them, on Tuesday. The euro falls 0.2% to 0.8487 pounds, little changed from levels before the speech. Ten-year gilt yields rise 2.3 basis points in response to the Middle East conflict, to last trade at 4.972%, Tradeweb data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0752 ET - Escalation of strikes in the Middle East has pushed energy markets away from the European Central Bank's mild scenario and toward the baseline, which strengthens the case for another quarter-point hike in September, says Antonio Garcia Pascual at Santander CIB. However, only a prolonged disruption with material damage to energy infrastructure would justify a broader hiking cycle, he says in a note. The ECB will focus on indirect inflationary effects through food and core and second-round effect via wages and inflation expectations. Further escalation in Hormuz would raise the risk of supply-chain disruption, he says. Eurozone inflation is likely to stay near 3% through the second half of the year, reaching 3.2% in December, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0731 ET - The Norwegian krone has limited scope to extend its recent appreciation as the Norges Bank might not raise interest rates further, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. The krone is finding support from the recent pick up in oil prices due to a re-escalation in the Middle East conflict as Norway is a major oil producer, she says. However, Norwegian price pressures were more moderate than expected in June. "On the back of doubts regarding further Norges Bank rate hikes, we expect euro-krone to stay close to the 11.00 level on a one-to-three-month view." The euro rises 0.1% to 11.0324 krone, having reached one-month low of 10.9920 earlier, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0534 ET - U.S. Treasury yields rise as military hostilities in the Middle East escalate further, while the dollar is relatively stable amid demand for safe-haven assets. The Middle East conflict has lifted oil prices and could push Treasury yields higher as they reinforce market expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve, Hola Prime's Somesh Kapuria says in a note. "Elevated energy costs could reinforce the expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates," he says. Despite weaker-than-expected inflation figures published last week, the Fed is still expected to increase rates before year-end, he says. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rises 1.7 basis points to 4.556%, according to Tradeweb. The DXY dollar trades steady at 100.785. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0521 ET - The euro should benefit if the European Central Bank strongly signals it is willing to raise interest rates further as the escalating Middle East conflict pushes up energy prices, Commerzbank's Thu Lan Nguyen says in a note. The ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged Thursday but raise rates again in September. Given the rise in energy prices, it is crucial how clearly the ECB underscores that it is prepared to raise rates beyond September, she says. "This is likely to be decisive in limiting the downside potential in euro versus the dollar in the event of a further escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict." The euro trades steady at $1.1438. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0508 ET - Sterling is unlikely to rise much further in response to higher U.K. real yields adjusted for inflation and reduced fiscal concerns, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. "After recent strong gains, we believe that a lot of good news is now priced into the pound which should curtail further upside." Higher energy prices due to the U.S.-Iran conflict have lifted U.K. bond yields. Markets have scaled back initial worries over political risks as incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham has pledged to be fiscally responsible. Reports that Burnham will pick Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood as his treasury chief could ease fiscal concerns, he says. Sterling rises 0.1% to $1.3470. The euro falls 0.1% to 0.8494 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0453 ET - Fixed income assets enter the third quarter of the year on a stronger footing than many expected, but the path forward is less straightforward, Principal Asset Management says in a note. Yields are elevated, fundamentals are broadly healthy while demand for income continues to support markets. "That combination gives investors a solid starting point," the asset manager says. At the same time, healthy fundamentals are now largely reflected in valuations, with credit spreads tighter across much of the market, leaving less room for error across sectors, it says. Principal AM sees the biggest shift in recent months around policy expectations, as markets have moved from confidently anticipating rate cuts to debating whether policy may need to stay restrictive for longer. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0415 ET - U.S. gasoline prices climbed back to $4 a gallon on Monday as the Iran war continued to squeeze global oil supplies and push up energy costs. Prices have climbed from $3.87 a week ago and $3.14 a year ago, according to the American Automobile Association, marking the first time the national average has reached $4 since mid-June. Hawaii, California and Washington are among the most expensive gasoline markets, with prices above $5 a gallon, AAA data shows. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0404 ET - A tighter correlation between energy prices and short-dated euro swap rates seems to be supporting the euro as the Middle East conflict escalates, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. Higher energy prices have driven a sizeable narrowing in euro-dollar two-year swap spreads, he says. Two-year euro swap rates are trading at a new high for the year, while last week's lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data has left short-dated U.S. rates off their highs, he says. "We do favor the euro moving back below $1.14 on these high energy prices, but we are cognisant of the risk of a surprise rate hike from the European Central Bank this Thursday." The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1445.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 20, 2026 09:26 ET (13:26 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments