Micron Technology is suffering from a reversal of its recent momentum but earnings and a bit of political help might put a stop to the bleeding.
The shares were down 0.9% at $845.50 in premarket trading. That was coming after a 5.7% loss the previous day amid a broad chip selloff which means the stock is down 25% in the past month.
The memory-chip maker closed below the $1 trillion market cap threshold on Thursday for the first time since June 5, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It has now lost about $407 billion in market value from its peak closing market cap of $1.37 trillion on June 25.
Arguably very little has changed about the fundamental picture for Micron with memory prices continuing to rise. Wall Street still expects Micron earnings to increase for the next three years at least amid higher artificial-intelligence spending and it now trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of less than six times according to FactSet.
"I don't think the memory [stocks] look unattractive post this pull back as a trade. The question is if they can double again from here on a 3-5 year basis," said Ivana Delevska, portfolio manager of the Spear Alpha ETF.
The first factor that could help Micron would be increased capital expenditure guidance from Big Tech companies this earnings season, starting with Google-parent Alphabet on Wednesday next week. That would reassure investors about demand.
However, there is an open question about rising supply, especially from Chinese memory-chip companies such as ChangXin Memory Technologies ( CXMT). While they are currently limited in their ability to supply U.S. companies and more advanced forms of hardware, there has been consistent speculation American customers might lobby to be allowed to buy from CXMT in the face of the shortage.
However, members of the U.S. House of Representatives are pushing back against that possibility. John Moolenaar (R., Mich.) and George Whitesides (D-CA) wrote a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick which was made public this Thursday calling for more explicit curbs on U.S. companies buying from CXMT or its peers.
"U.S. reliance on Chinese memory producers will expose Western manufacturers to a deluge of state-subsidized Chinese memory, putting our memory manufacturing base and supply chains at risk," Moolenar and Whitesides wrote. "Given these risks, we urge you to oppose efforts to facilitate the sale of Chinese memory chips abroad and further expand existing export controls on Chinese memory makers to ensure that they will never catch up to their Western counterparts."
If the Trump administration agrees to put tighter restrictions on Chinese memory chips, Micron might get some much-needed relief.
Comments