The crypto industry's most critical Washington priority is hanging by a thread, and whether it succeeds or fails could come down to the outcome of a White House meeting Thursday between President Donald Trump and Republican senators.
The subject of the meeting, according to Republicans who plan to attend, is the Clarity Act, a crypto-regulation bill long-sought by Coinbase Global and others in the industry. The bill among other provisions would create clearer pathways for raising money through token sales, establish consumer protections, and put most crypto trading out of the purview of the Securities and Exchange Commission, a longtime industry goal.
To avoid a filibuster, the bill would need at least 60 votes in the Senate, meaning it needs support from several Democrats to pass. A critical hangup, however, is Trump's own investments in the crypto industry. As a condition of passing the bill, some Democrats want to include a provision barring Trump and other government officials from crypto investments.
Thursday's meeting could make clear what prohibitions, if any, Trump is willing to accept. Trump's most recent financial disclosure form showed he made more than $1 billion last year from crypto-tied investments, including from World Liberty Financial, which the president and his family co-founded before he was re-elected in 2024.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment. In the past, White House spokespeople have said that Trump's investments aren't a conflict of interest.
Reaching a deal this week or early next week is critical to the Clarity Act's chances. Lawmakers leave for a long recess in August, and when they return, they'll have little time to consider legislation before the November midterm elections.
If Democrats win one or both of the House of Representatives and Senate, they'll likely hold off on passing any significant bills until they take control next year. There's no guarantee that a Democratic-led Congress would even have an interest in tackling crypto in 2027.
Some analysts think the bill is already basically out of time. Stifel Washington policy strategist Brian Gardner earlier this week gave the bill a 30% chance of passing this year.
"Truth be told, that estimate might be a bit optimistic," Gardner wrote in a research note, adding its chances would fall below 20% should the Senate not pass it before the recess.
Thursday's meeting should result at least in an agreement from Trump on a limited conflict-of-interest provision that would give Republicans the cover to reject Democrats' demand of a more comprehensive ban, wrote TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg in a research note on Thursday.
"If Trump turns this into a partisan fight, then Senate Democrats who want to back the bill may turn against it on procedural and political grounds," Seiberg said.
Even if the Senate can't get the bill over the finish line, there's a silver lining for Coinbase and other crypto firms.
During President Joe Biden's administration, the SEC sued Coinbase and others in the industry for allegedly violating securities laws, an accusation that the companies rejected.
Though some progressive senators like Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) argue that much of the industry should be subject to securities regulation, many Democrats don't hold that position, which is what has given the Clarity Act a path to passing in the first place.
It might take a while for rules around digital assets to be enshrined into law, but the crackdown against Coinbase and other crypto firms is unlikely to return in any event.
Write to Joe Light at joe.light@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 16, 2026 13:49 ET (17:49 GMT)
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