The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1131 GMT - The Norwegian krone has limited scope to extend its recent appreciation as the Norges Bank might not raise interest rates further, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. The krone is finding support from the recent pick up in oil prices due to a re-escalation in the Middle East conflict as Norway is a major oil producer, she says. However, Norwegian price pressures were more moderate than expected in June. "On the back of doubts regarding further Norges Bank rate hikes, we expect euro-krone to stay close to the 11.00 level on a one-to-three-month view." The euro rises 0.1% to 11.0324 krone, having reached one-month low of 10.9920 earlier, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0934 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise as military hostilities in the Middle East escalate further, while the dollar is relatively stable amid demand for safe-haven assets. The Middle East conflict has lifted oil prices and could push Treasury yields higher as they reinforce market expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve, Hola Prime's Somesh Kapuria says in a note. "Elevated energy costs could reinforce the expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates," he says. Despite weaker-than-expected inflation figures published last week, the Fed is still expected to increase rates before year-end, he says. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rises 1.7 basis points to 4.556%, according to Tradeweb. The DXY dollar trades steady at 100.785. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0921 GMT - The euro should benefit if the European Central Bank strongly signals it is willing to raise interest rates further as the escalating Middle East conflict pushes up energy prices, Commerzbank's Thu Lan Nguyen says in a note. The ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged Thursday but raise rates again in September. Given the rise in energy prices, it is crucial how clearly the ECB underscores that it is prepared to raise rates beyond September, she says. "This is likely to be decisive in limiting the downside potential in euro versus the dollar in the event of a further escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict." The euro trades steady at $1.1438. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0908 GMT - Sterling is unlikely to rise much further in response to higher U.K. real yields adjusted for inflation and reduced fiscal concerns, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. "After recent strong gains, we believe that a lot of good news is now priced into the pound which should curtail further upside." Higher energy prices due to the U.S.-Iran conflict have lifted U.K. bond yields. Markets have scaled back initial worries over political risks as incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham has pledged to be fiscally responsible. Reports that Burnham will pick Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood as his treasury chief could ease fiscal concerns, he says. Sterling rises 0.1% to $1.3470. The euro falls 0.1% to 0.8494 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0853 GMT - Fixed income assets enter the third quarter of the year on a stronger footing than many expected, but the path forward is less straightforward, Principal Asset Management says in a note. Yields are elevated, fundamentals are broadly healthy while demand for income continues to support markets. "That combination gives investors a solid starting point," the asset manager says. At the same time, healthy fundamentals are now largely reflected in valuations, with credit spreads tighter across much of the market, leaving less room for error across sectors, it says. Principal AM sees the biggest shift in recent months around policy expectations, as markets have moved from confidently anticipating rate cuts to debating whether policy may need to stay restrictive for longer. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0815 GMT - U.S. gasoline prices climbed back to $4 a gallon on Monday as the Iran war continued to squeeze global oil supplies and push up energy costs. Prices have climbed from $3.87 a week ago and $3.14 a year ago, according to the American Automobile Association, marking the first time the national average has reached $4 since mid-June. Hawaii, California and Washington are among the most expensive gasoline markets, with prices above $5 a gallon, AAA data shows. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0804 GMT - A tighter correlation between energy prices and short-dated euro swap rates seems to be supporting the euro as the Middle East conflict escalates, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. Higher energy prices have driven a sizeable narrowing in euro-dollar two-year swap spreads, he says. Two-year euro swap rates are trading at a new high for the year, while last week's lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data has left short-dated U.S. rates off their highs, he says. "We do favor the euro moving back below $1.14 on these high energy prices, but we are cognisant of the risk of a surprise rate hike from the European Central Bank this Thursday." The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1445.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0754 GMT - Markets raise their bets on the prospects of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months due to rising oil prices. Escalating hostilities between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend earlier caused the price of Brent crude to rise above $90 per barrel, increasing concerns about prospects of higher inflation. Markets price in a total of 42 basis points of BOE rate increases in 2026, 4 basis points higher than Friday's pricing, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0747 GMT - European airline stocks fall as oil prices rise following an escalation of hostilities between Iran and the U.S. over the weekend. Deutsche Lufthansa and Air France-KLM trade 2.7% and 3.1% lower, respectively, while International Consolidated Airlines Group is down 2.1% and Wizz Air falls 3.0%. Jet2 and TUI trade 2.1% and 1.5% lower, respectively. EasyJet shares are down 0.5% and Ryanair tumbles 7.2%. The Dublin-listed carrier on Monday posted a drop in first-quarter net profit on lower fares and fuel-cost headwinds amid the conflict in the Middle East. (nina.kienle@wsj.com)
0729 GMT - Gold prices slip as escalating attacks between the U.S. and Iran push Brent crude back above $90 a barrel, reinforcing concerns over inflation concerns despite softer U.S. inflation data. "The recent price action suggests that concerns over higher-for-longer interest rates are offsetting gold's traditional safe-haven appeal, leaving gold largely range-bound despite escalating geopolitical risks," says Soojin Kim, analyst at MUFG. Markets are now pricing in at least one interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year, diminishing the appeal of nonyielding bullion. In early European trading, gold futures are down 0.2% to $4,010.20 a troy ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0726 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds climb as the U.S.-Iran conflict drives up oil prices, raising inflation risk. Investors are concerned that the prolonged hostilities could push up inflation and cause the Bank of England to increase interest rates. Ten-year gilt yields climb 4.4 basis points to last trade at 4.994%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0721 GMT - European energy stocks open higher as oil climbs on concerns that escalating hostilities between Iran and the U.S. threaten energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Tit-for-tat exchanges have pushed Brent crude futures 3.3% higher to 90.97 a barrel while WTI rises 1% to $78.46 a barrel. In London, BP is up 1.2% while Shell rises 0.5%. Spain's Repsol, Norway's Equinor and France's TotalEnergies are all up around 1.7%. Italy's Eni rises 1.4%.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 20, 2026 07:31 ET (11:31 GMT)
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