The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1008 ET - BMO Capital Markets economist Robert Kavcic estimates that President Trump's proposed new 50% levy on some Canadian goods to address discriminatory treatment of U.S.-made autos, alcohol and dairy products likely lifts the average effective tariff on Canadian exports to America to around 7.5%, from its current 5% level. On aggregate, Kavcic says that sounds digestible, although warns "some specific businesses and sectors industries would be hit extremely hard." He adds the latest Trump threat, which could be enacted on Aug. 19, is likely to weigh on business confidence, and serves as a reminder "that uncertainty on the trade front has not gone away." He says deteriorating trade ties between Ottawa and Washington "could even open the door" to fresh rate cuts. (paul.vieira@wsj.com)
1004 ET - Just over one-third of U.S. house hunters say a "clean" home--one with high-end filtration systems for air, water, etc.--is one of the most important features in the next place they live, Redfin says. That makes it the most common priority for prospective homebuyers, along with security systems. Views come in third, followed by smart-home technology. Backup power generation--such as solar panels or generators--rounds out the top five. Climate resilient upgrades or features are also fairly important to prospective buyers, with one in seven ranking it as one of their top considerations. Features that take health and climate risks into account are ranked higher than luxurious upgrades like home theaters, outdoor kitchens or tennis courts. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
0959 ET - The fear that has dominated cryptocurrency trading is starting to break, according to data from CoinMarketCap. It's Fear and Greed index has risen to a reading of 40-out of-100, a 'neutral' rating up from ratings in 'fear' territory seen since May. While this a hopeful sign for investors, analysts warn that other signs of continued weakness in the market remain. One is that bitcoin dominance of the entire cryptocurrency space remains high at around 60%, according to CoinMarketCap data -- with investors unwilling to risk money on more-volatile altcoin options. "This rotation underscores a definitive de-risking phase across the digital asset landscape," says analysts with Bitfinex in a note. Other major cryptocurrencies follow bitcoin higher, with ethereum up 1.2%, XRP up 2.2%, and solana climbing 0.5%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0950 ET - Bitcoin gains 1.7% to $66,443, the highest prices have gotten for the token since June 2. Bitcoin has posted gains for the last three weeks. Today's uptick moves the resistance level for bitcoin up to $68,000, says analysts with Bitfinex in a note. "The market's next direction will likely be decided near the US$68,000 level, where a concentration of breakeven sellers is expected to provide the first major challenge to the rally," says Bitfinex. The firm pegs the short-term holder cost basis of bitcoin around $68,000, meaning that holders that want to exit the coin without stomaching a loss may take the opportunity of a price around that level to do so. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0945 ET - Sterling could fall further in coming months if fiscal concerns rise, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. The market is bracing for further policy announcements after the newly formed government under U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced plans to remove VAT from electricity bills, she says. "This suggests that funding issues will remain at the fore of the market's mind and hints that Burnham's honeymoon may be short-lived." Another headwind facing sterling is that U.K. interest rate rise expectations look overdone, she says. The euro rises 0.4% to 0.8531 pounds and sterling falls 0.4% to $1.3374. Rabobank expects the euro to rise to 0.8650 pounds and sterling to fall to $1.32 within three months.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0923 ET - Investors in U.K. government bonds, or gilts, are watching for any possible shift in the government commitment to fiscal discipline as new spending plans are announced, Nomura research analysts say in a note. New Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledged to maintain the current fiscal rules but said he would use any "flexibility" within the rules. The government has announced a plan to remove value added tax on energy bills, which would by funded by cancelling the Digital ID scheme. Ten-year gilt yields hit a one-week of 5.044% earlier in the session and last trade at 5.035%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0903 ET - Bitcoin rallies to a five-week high as U.S. stock futures rise, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading gains ahead of earnings from major tech companies. Bitcoin is also supported by renewed institutional demand, with spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds recording two consecutive weeks of net inflows, Trade Nation's David Morrison says in a note. Bitcoin rises to a high of $66,602, LSEG data show. The next big upside target is $70,000, while chart support stands at $65,000, Morrison says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0858 ET - U.K. is more vulnerable than other advanced economies to global supply shocks, Matt Swannell at Oxford Economics says in a note. "Although global negative supply shocks push up prices across all economies, the U.K. has often shown a greater tendency to turn these shocks into longer-lasting bouts of above-target inflation," he says. This is due to successive shocks, such as Brexit and the pandemic, as well as strong wage growth, which has made households and businesses more responsive to inflation. Running a persistent current account deficit while relying heavily on overseas investors to finance it also leaves the U.K. exposed to international risk appetite, while a lack of fiscal space means the government is less able to provide support to cushion supply shocks, Swannell says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
0831 ET - Polling from Ottawa-based Abacus Data suggest that a majority of Canadians aren't keen on PM Mark Carney making quick concessions to secure a trade detente with Washington. In results published Tuesday, or hours after President Trump threatened to slap a new 50% tariff on a swath of Canadian goods, Abacus says 69% of Canadians want Carney to hold firm in trade talks regarding USMCA, "even if it means living with uncertainty for longer." Abacus adds respondents indicate that reducing Canada's trading dependence on the U.S. should remain a long-term policy priority. The White House says the new 50% tariff is in response to discriminatory Canadian treatment of U.S.-made automobiles, spirits and wine, and dairy products. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
0801 ET - Sterling should perform well as new U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham is unlikely to veer from his commitment to the fiscal rules, J.P. Morgan's James Nelligan says in a note. Sterling's attractive yields suggest investors should favor the currency, but instead fiscal concerns have been held it back, he says. J.P. Morgan takes profits on bets for a stronger sterling against the euro, Swiss franc and Swedish krona after recent gains, but its positive view is unchanged. The bank would look to re-enter these positions on any increase in risk premium. John Healey's appointment as treasury chief reduces political uncertainty and could allow sterling to rise towards levels that should be justified by higher yields, Nelligan says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0705 ET - The European Central Bank is likely to hold interest rates at this week's meeting after a hike in June but retain a hawkish tone, Nuveen's Laura Cooper says in a note. The ECB will keep its options open for further tightening should renewed tensions drive energy prices higher, the global investment strategist says. Inflation has been softer than feared and PMI pricing components show little sign of reacceleration, while producer price data confirms that upstream cost pressures are fading, she says. "That makes the case for a pause this month." The complication is renewed disruption to commodity flows, which risks reigniting energy price pressure just as the ECB was gaining confidence in the disinflation path, she says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0700 ET - The outlook for European government bonds remains constructive, Payden Global SIM SpA's Antonella Manganelli says in a note. Although the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have brought volatility back to energy markets, the rise in oil prices appears contained for now and does not alter the scenario of a gradual normalization of inflation in the euro area, the CEO says. This backdrop continues to favor intermediate maturities particularly--those between five and ten years--which offer the best balance between yield and risk, she says. "One note of caution remains, however: the greater financing needs linked to investment in defence and the energy transition could limit any further decline in yields, especially on longer maturities." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 21, 2026 10:08 ET (14:08 GMT)
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