The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1446 ET - Ongoing trade-related uncertainty is going to keep USDCAD above the 1.40 for the foreseeable future, says TD Securities. The firm says that, so far, President Trump's plan to impose a new 50% tariff has triggered "fairly muted" market reaction. The reason, TD says, is the hefty tariff would apply to a small share of total US-Canada trade, thereby minimizing the duty's impact. USDCAD is up 0.26%, while Canada yields are down slightly. TD says the muted response likely reflects fatigue among traders about the trade acrimony between Ottawa and Washington. Traders may also be leaning on remarks last week from Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem, who suggests firms are adjusting to a new U.S.-Canada trade reality, the firm says. (paul.vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)
1357 ET - The scope of the proposed new U.S. 50% tariff on certain Canadian goods does not meet the threshold for Bank of Canada officials to consider rate cuts, say the economics team at National Bank of Canada. The 50% levy, which is set to be imposed as soon as Aug. 19, sounds hefty but covers roughly 5% of U.S. imports from Canada, NBC says. Yet, the economists say the new 50% tariff could have economic repercussions. It gives the BOC "more reason to remain patient and refrain from near-term rate hikes despite above-target inflation," NBC says. The firm adds that this new layer of uncertainty is likely to dent business confidence, which had been improving. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)
1334 ET - As demand for homebuilding softened midway through 2Q, D.R. Horton says it prioritized gross margin instead of finding ways to push unit volume, management says on a call with analysts. As such, the company trimmed its full-year home delivery forecast to protect profitability. Doing so helped get home sales gross margin to 20.7% for the quarter, the high end of the company's guidance, as stick-and-brick costs came down 5%. While the company still has significant long-term growth ambitions, it is choosing to hold margin steady for now, management says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)
1319 ET - It's not enough to consider a software company's "moat"--their current competitive positioning and risk of displacement--when considering which companies will emerge as winners and losers from the adoption of artificial-intelligence, Morgan Stanley analysts write in a note. Investors should also consider the "journey": how well a company can adapt to AI processes and models as software continues to evolve. The companies that clearly check both boxes are Microsoft, Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, Shopify, Cloudflare, ServiceNow, Datadog, and Snowflake, the analysts write. Stocks that appear more challenged include Adobe and Workday, they add. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1243 ET - New York state's housing market saw prices hit a record high in June, with the median sales price hitting $475,000, the New York State Association of Realtors said. The increase, from $440,000 in June of last year, comes amid an increase in inventory, which has seen 16 straight months of year-over-year inventory growth, according to the Association. Closing sales saw a rise of 0.8% from June of last year, while pending sales rose 8.1%. (stephen.nakrosis@wsj.com)
1224 ET - Starting in November, food-delivery startup Wonder plans to offer tools for people to build their own fast-casual restaurants based on an AI prompt, CEO Marc Lore says during an appearance on CNBC. "Think Shopify on the front end, but we do the entire back end as well," he says, noting Wonder will source the ingredients, cook the food and deliver it. "There's nothing to do other than to basically market your restaurant," he says. Lore says the offering will be just one aspect of Wonder's business, but it could potentially grow into a big piece. "I think millions of people could potentially own their own restaurants in five or 10 years," he says. Last week Wonder announced it raised $650 million in a Series D financing round at a $9 billion pre-money valuation. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)
1037 ET - President Trump's tariff threat against Canada -- 50% on an array of goods, effective Aug. 19 -- was to be expected at this stage of trade talks between Washington and Ottawa, says Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Capital Markets. "If anything, they're somewhat less aggressive than feared," he says. Talks between the U.S. and Canada to resolve trade tensions have largely stalled, while negotiations between Washington and Mexico are at an advance stage. Mendes says the new 50% tariff fits Trump's style of leveraging access to the US market to force countries to make concessions. He adds Desjardins' outlook had already incorporated a degree of trade uncertainty, and he expects Canadian bond yields, stock prices and CAD to weaken over the next few months due to elevated trade tensions. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1016 ET - President Trump is threatening to impose a 50% tariff starting on Aug. 19 on roughly $20 billion in Canadian exports, citing Canada's discriminatory treatment of U.S.-made automobiles, dairy product and alcohol. The Washington-based Distilled Spirits Council offers a lukewarm response to the tariff news. "We appreciate the administration's recognition of the significant damage" done to U.S. distillers, says council CEO, Chris Swonger. Nearly all Canadian provinces have banned the sale of U.S. spirits and wines at their government-run liquor outlets. "We had hoped, however, this issue could be resolved without further escalation," Swonger says, warning the 50% tariff could trigger new retaliation from Ottawa that threatens to further harm America's hospitality sector. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1012 ET - Attention is turning to how new U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham will fund an expanding policy agenda, Sandra Horsfield and Ellie Henderson at Investec say in a note. Burnham's priorities also include greater devolution, ending rough sleeping, reforming social care, raising defense spending and easing living costs. To fund this, he could look to exploit the flexibility of fiscal rules by classifying more spending as investment, the analysts say. But if this proves insufficient, tax rises might follow. Options could include changes to capital gains tax, wealth taxes, thresholds and exemptions. "Press reports have suggested this could be coupled, ambitiously, with a Spending Review too, to reshape public finances more substantially." (don.forbes@wsj.com)
1011 ET - The streak of bitcoin outflows has given way to a different streak of money coming back to bitcoin ETFs, with CoinGlass reporting its fifth consecutive net gain on those ETFs as of yesterday. The amounts coming in for bitcoin ETFs have also picked up, with $226.8 million entering into bitcoin yesterday. CoinGlass says that inflows have totaled $727 million over the course of those five days. Prior to this, bitcoin had weeks of outflows, with fund managers selling their positions amid speculation of impending rate hikes from the USDA. Bitcoin is up 2.1% to $66,713. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1008 ET - BMO Capital Markets economist Robert Kavcic estimates that President Trump's proposed new 50% levy on some Canadian goods to address discriminatory treatment of U.S.-made autos, alcohol and dairy products likely lifts the average effective tariff on Canadian exports to America to around 7.5%, from its current 5% level. On aggregate, Kavcic says that sounds digestible, although warns "some specific businesses and sectors industries would be hit extremely hard." He adds the latest Trump threat, which could be enacted on Aug. 19, is likely to weigh on business confidence, and serves as a reminder "that uncertainty on the trade front has not gone away." He says deteriorating trade ties between Ottawa and Washington "could even open the door" to fresh rate cuts. (paul.vieira@wsj.com)
1004 ET - Just over one-third of U.S. house hunters say a "clean" home--one with high-end filtration systems for air, water, etc.--is one of the most important features in the next place they live, Redfin says. That makes it the most common priority for prospective homebuyers, along with security systems. Views come in third, followed by smart-home technology. Backup power generation--such as solar panels or generators--rounds out the top five. Climate resilient upgrades or features are also fairly important to prospective buyers, with one in seven ranking it as one of their top considerations. Features that take health and climate risks into account are ranked higher than luxurious upgrades like home theaters, outdoor kitchens or tennis courts. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 21, 2026 14:46 ET (18:46 GMT)
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