The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1136 GMT - The Turkish lira stays weaker against the dollar, showing little reaction after Turkey's central bank left interest rates unchanged at 37% as widely anticipated. The central bank said the underlying trend of inflation fell slightly in June but it expects a temporary increase in July following a renewed rise in energy prices due to the U.S.-Iran conflict. It said its tight monetary policy stance will be maintained until price stability is achieved and this should strengthen the disinflation process. The dollar rises 0.1% to 47.2321 lira, little changed from levels before the decision. It reached a record high of 47.2434 overnight, according to LSEG.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1115 GMT - The Bank of England looks less likely to raise interest rates in the coming months, UBS Investment Bank economists say in a note. The U.K.'s sluggish economic growth and weak labor market reduce the need for the BOE to raise interest rates, the economists say. "The Bank can address the risk of second-round effects by keeping rates at the current restrictive level for longer, without hiking them further." However, the prospects of the BOE raising rates can't be ruled out, given rising oil prices and some BOE members' preference for a rate increase, they say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1109 GMT - U.K. inflation is expected to accelerate after slowing in June and could hit a peak of 3.3% in November, UBS Investment Bank economists say in a note. Utility bills are expected to rise in July and could push up annual headline inflation up to 2.9% from 2.6% in June, the economists say. "We expect food and goods inflation to pick up towards year-end as higher input costs--particularly for energy and fertilisers--are gradually passed through to consumers." The worsening Middle East conflict raises the risk of rising inflation, they say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0958 GMT - The Monetary Authority of Singapore will likely maintain a mildly hawkish bias without tightening its policy next week as it monitors broader price pressures, Goldman Sachs economists say in a note. The country's core inflation was largely stable at 1.6% on year in June, compared with May's 1.4% reading. The economists think July's core inflation print will be key to watch, with the recent 17% increase in electricity tariffs for households likely lifting the reading by about 0.5 percentage point this month. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0952 GMT - The cost of insuring high-yield euro-denominated credit against default rises to a six-week high due to risk-off sentiment as the U.S.-Iran war intensifies. The U.S. on Wednesday said it fired strikes against Iranian targets, the 12th consecutive day of attacks. Iran continued attacks on ships on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran-backed Houthis claimed strikes on tankers in the Red Sea. The widening conflict has led investors to exercise caution. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps rises 3 basis points to 260bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0905 GMT - Business confidence in France inched up in July, though it remains subdued overall, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Claus Vistesen says in a note. The headline manufacturing sentiment index rose to 101 in July from 100 in June, marginally above its long-run average. Across sectors, the small manufacturing increase was joined by a rebound in services confidence, while sentiment in retail trade jumped--possibly due to the World Cup. "Overall, these are encouraging data, pointing to a clear improvement in business sentiment," Vistesen says. More generally, hard date for the second quarter point to a stronger GDP outturn in next week's first print than surveys imply. "We think the initial estimate will show that GDP rose by 0.3% in 2Q, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in 1Q." (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0904 GMT - The Japanese yen falls to a fresh 40-year low against the dollar and the Swiss franc hits an 11-month low versus the dollar as the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict sends oil prices higher. The low-yielding yen and the franc are two of the worst performing G-10 currencies since the U.S.-Iran conflict started in late February and continue to underperform this month, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. "The negative energy price shock and building expectations for European Central Bank and Federal Reserve rate hikes has weighed on both currencies." The dollar rises to as high as 0.8156 francs and 163.44 yen. The euro also rises to a six-month high of 0.9316 Swiss francs, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0858 GMT - Hong Kong's common-law system could make it a useful gateway for Malaysian companies seeking to enter mainland China. Its more familiar legal and business environment may help reduce execution risks, particularly for smaller companies, although using Hong Kong as an intermediary may involve additional costs, Hong Kong Trade Development Council Regional Director for Southeast Asia and South Asia Leung Kwan Ho says in a media roundtable. Hong Kong will continue leveraging its "one country, two systems" framework to connect overseas businesses with mainland China, he adds. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0844 GMT - Hong Kong businesses are turning to Asean markets for diversification amid continuing geopolitical tensions, according to Leung Kwan Ho, Hong Kong Trade Development Council regional director for Southeast Asia and South Asia. Speaking at a media roundtable in Kuala Lumpur, he says that companies are looking beyond their traditional Western markets as supply chains realign and Southeast Asian economies expand. Leung sees opportunities across the services sector. Professional services such as consulting in finance, engineering, technology and infrastructure, as well as risk management, are areas where Hong Kong companies can collaborate with Malaysian counterparts while deepening bilateral trade and investment, he says. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0816 GMT - The European Central Bank could signal a possible September interest-rate rise through a media leak after Thursday's meeting, but this is unlikely to prevent the euro from falling in coming days, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. ING's near-term bias for the euro remains "titled to the downside" as currency markets appear "dangerously complacent" about the escalating Middle East conflict, he says. "Unless the newsflow becomes more constructive, we look for the euro to slip towards $1.1380 in the coming days." The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1423. The ECB announces its policy decision at 1215 GMT and is expected to leave rates unchanged but markets price a 90% chance of a rate rise in September, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0812 GMT - Sterling could continue to hand back recent gains if U.K. short-dated rates drift lower and fiscal risks return, ING analysts say in a note. Inflation probably won't reach the 4% threshold seen as the trigger for the Bank of England to raise interest rates while the European Central Bank could deliver one more rate rise, they say. New U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham's openness to bigger policy changes means a bolder budget, expected in October or November, cannot be ruled out, they say. The euro rises to a nine-day high of 0.8544 pounds, having hit a 13-month low of 0.8453 last week, according to LSEG. ING expects it to reach 0.88 by year-end and 0.90 in 2027. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0806 GMT - Markets increase their expectations of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in 2026 due to rising oil prices and inflation fears. Intensifying conflict in the Middle East has led investors to price in the possibility of high inflation and potential central bank rate hikes to tackle inflation. Investors fully price in one quarter-point BOE rate increase in November and a 93% possibility of a second rate rise in December, LSEG data show. Traders were pricing in a total of 38 basis points of BOE rate rises in 2026, last week. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 23, 2026 07:36 ET (11:36 GMT)
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