Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0504 ET - The latest jump in oil prices following an escalating conflict in the Middle East is likely to be short-lived, Julius Baer's Norbert Rücker says in a note. Despite fresh attacks on tankers in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, the renewed fighting appears to reflect efforts by the parties to strengthen their bargaining positions ahead of another round of negotiations. "None of the involved conflict parties have an interest in the situation getting out of hand," Rücker says, adding that conditions underpinning the early summer truce are unchanged. With the pledged government oil releases only partially done and global oil overall less depleted than initially expected, the market still has a buffer if supply disruptions persist, Julius Baer says. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
0351 ET - The oil market is increasingly focused on the resilience of physical crude flows rather than whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Rystad Energy says. While supply disruptions since March have been absorbed through inventory drawdowns, alternative export routes and spare production capacity are diminishing, leaving the market more exposed to prolonged outages. "The direction of prices will ultimately depend on three factors: whether crude flows into Asia can be maintained, whether refiners can adapt to a changing mix of crude grades and how geopolitical developments unfold," says Janiv Shah, VP of commodity markets. Rystad's base case is an interim deal that restores trade but stops short of resolving the nuclear issue or curbing Iran's maritime leverage. Markets would still price in a geopolitical-risk premium while Gulf oil inventories are cleared, export operations recover and confidence in shipping routes is rebuilt. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0302 ET - Brent crude edges lower in early trading after settling above $100 a barrel, though prices remained on track for weekly gains of more than 12% as threats to Red Sea shipping stoked fears of further supply disruptions. The global oil benchmark falls 1.3% to $99.39 a barrel, while WTI futures slip 1.4% to $90.89 a barrel. "The key question is at what price level pressure begins to build on the Trump administration to return to the negotiating table," analysts at ING say. Based on previous price spikes during the early stages of the conflict, they say pressure to de-escalate would rise significantly if Brent approaches $120 a barrel. For Iran, the more pressing issue is not the level of oil prices, but how long the country can withstand a sharp drop in oil revenue under the U.S. blockade. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0115 ET - Unless oil prices fall significantly over the coming weeks, a rate hike by the European Central Bank in September is highly likely, while market pricing of further hikes might prove excessive, Pictet Wealth Management's Nadia Gharbi says in a note. "We continue to believe current market pricing is exaggerated... given the absence of second-round effects, the loosening of the labour market and the underlying weakness in the economy, which is being exacerbated by the energy shock," the senior economist says. Money markets currently price in almost 70bps of additional tightening by June 2027, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
2150 ET - President Trump's decision to slap a 12.5% tariff on Australia on grounds that the country has inadequately enforced bans on goods produced by forced labor is "ludicrous," says David Bassanese, chief economist at Betashares. "This is obviously just a lame excuse to justify replacement tariffs for those struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court earlier this year," he adds. For the U.S., the tariff adds another source of price pressure just as the inflationary effects of earlier tariff increases were starting to ease, he says. Higher tariffs only increases the risk the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this year, he says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1248 ET - Brent crude's rise above $100 could prompt leaders to seek de-escalation, Lombard Odier's Nannette Hechler-Fayd'herbe says. Rational actors in the U.S. and Iran will push both sides toward the negotiating table, with U.S. Republicans wary of midterm elections, and Tehran eager to ease economic sanctions, the investment strategist says. "Everyone has their own perennity in sight." Lombard Odier continues to expect the Federal Reserve to avoid a rate hike this year, and the latest escalation in the Gulf hasn't changed the investment group's oil outlook. Brent crude oil trades 6.6% higher at $100.26 a barrel, while WTI rises 5.9% to $91.91 a barrel. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0957 ET -- RTX CEO Chris Calio says the company has been seeing bipartisan support for an increase in defense spending in 2027. "What I can tell you, as we engage with Congress, is there's a bipartisan support for increased munitions and ramping in those areas which are pretty core to our capabilities," Calio says on a call with analysts. The House just narrowly passed a $1.15 trillion defense policy bill in a 216-to-212 vote, with six Democrats supporting the measure and seven Republicans opposing it. The Senate's version of the bill is currently stalled, with Democrats arguing that the bill doesn't attempt to restrain the White House's military actions in Iran. (dean.seal@wsj.com)
0854 ET - Renewed Iranian attacks are likely to derail the Gulf's tentative economic recovery, says Nicolas Crittenden, an assistant economist at Capital Economics. The latest escalation threatens to reverse improvements that emerged after last month's U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal eased disruption to regional trade and energy flows. Crittenden says Gulf-wide private sector activity improved in June, led by Saudi Arabia. Exports to the region from major trading partners also strengthened, while flight numbers returned close to pre-conflict levels, pointing to a recovery in tourism and logistics. Renewed disruption to Strait of Hormuz traffic is likely to stall the recovery, with downside risks building around Capital Economics' forecast for Gulf GDP to contract about 6% this year. (farhan.salehrafid@wsj.com)
0632 ET - Investors should look beyond the race for the most advanced AI models or chips and consider China's broader advantages across the AI value chain, Victoria Mio of Janus Henderson Investors writes. Despite trailing the U.S. on the technological front, China has developed competitive advantages in the layers of energy, infrastructure and application of the AI ecosystem, says the China equities head and portfolio manager. She notes China benefits from lower industrial power prices and rapid infrastructure development, and has a proven ability to commercialize technology at scale. Among the five layers of the AI stack, the application layer could be where the biggest long-term investment opportunities lie as AI adoption expands into robotics, autonomous driving, healthcare and enterprise products and services, Mio adds. (farah.elias@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 24, 2026 05:05 ET (09:05 GMT)
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