The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
0734 GMT - China is likely able to draw down its crude inventories and sustain historically low import levels for several more months, possibly into 2027, Capital Economics says in a note. Economist Hamad Hussain says the sharp decline in China's crude imports has been a key factor capping global oil prices. He argues the drop reflects the end of China's streak of oil stockpiling, rather than weaker end-user demand from long-term trends such as rising EV adoption. However, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for much longer, oil markets are still likely to reach a tipping point in the coming months, potentially pushing crude prices to $120 a barrel or higher. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
0727 GMT - The recent re-escalation of the Middle East conflict could transform the energy supply disruption from a crude-routing problem to a broader supply-chain crisis, ANZ commodity strategists say in a research note. The oil market has avoided a more disorderly price response so far because of several buffers, including China's sharp reduction in crude imports, they say. However, the latest strikes raise concerns about whether these buffers can effectively keep the world supplied with oil, as a disruption to the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb shipping would undermine one of the market's most important workarounds, they note. ANZ maintains its end-Q3 2026 Brent crude forecast of $92 per barrel, but warns if regional supply disruptions intensify, Brent could rise towards $120 a barrel. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0447 GMT - Singapore's core inflation is expected to tick higher to around the 2% mark this month following the recent 17% electricity tariff hike, Maybank economists say in a report. "The lagged pass-through of higher energy, logistics and imported input costs from Gulf War shocks are still filtering through to prices," the economists add. Core inflation reached 1.6% last month, up from 1.4% in May. Despite rising consumer prices, the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Ministry of Trade and Industry maintain their 1.5%-2.5% forecast for core and headline inflation this year. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
2339 GMT - Oil futures edge lower on likely technical correction after Brent futures settled above $100 per barrel overnight for the first time in two months. However, losses may be limited by rising concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East. President Trump said the U.S. would hold Iran responsible for future attacks by the Houthi militants after the group fired on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. "Hostilities in the Red Sea raised concerns of further supply disruptions," ANZ Research analysts say in a research report. "This has been an alternative route through which Saudi Arabia has exported oil since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz," they add. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.1% lower at $92.10 a barrel. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2231 GMT - Power generator Mercury NZ's strong end to FY26 means it will comfortably beat earnings guidance, Forsyth Barr says. Mercury NZ was able to expand profit margins in 4Q as a result of improved electricity trading. Conditions in the quarter, with hydro-generation volumes some 18% above average and wind-power output up 6% on year. Forsyth Barr expects Mercury NZ's Ebitdaf totaled NZ$1.069 billion in FY26. That is 2% above the power company's own guidance. "Looking ahead, further earnings growth will come from its new generation projects (Ngā Tamariki, Kaiwera Downs 2, and Kaiwaikawe), partially offset by falling electricity futures prices, its Manawa hedge contract repricing and, in the near term, expected El Niño impacts," analyst Andrew Harvey-Green says. Forsyth Barr retains a "neutral" call on the stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
Euroz Hartleys is more optimistic than the market about Beach Energy's dividends in FY26. It expects Beach to pay out A$0.04/share, some 33% above consensus forecasts for A$0.03/share. Still, both projections represent a steep drop on the A$0.09/share of dividends declared in FY25. Beach says it is reviewing its dividend framework and will update investors next month. So, the dividend outlook is likely to dominate Beach's FY26 result. "Investors are increasingly looking for either a meaningful inorganic reserve/resource addition or a move back to improved distributions," says analyst Declan Bonnick. Euroz Hartleys has a hold call on Beach, and pared its price target by 8.9% to A$1.02/share following its 4Q report. Beach ended Thursday at A$0.885. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1909 GMT - Crude futures extend gains with Brent settling above $100 a barrel for the first time in two months as Iran-backed Houthis said they attacked Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, threatening a key alternative shipping route to the Strait of Hormuz. "This has a double hit. It further reduces exports from the Middle East, but it also means the alternative route for cargoes traveling to Europe (around South Africa) is significantly longer," Ellen Fraser, an energy analyst at consulting firm Baringa says in a note. The added threat to supply comes as global stocks are low, including in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, she adds. "Globally oil could go higher ... and that's quite likely unless things calm soon." Brent rises 7% to $100.69 a barrel, its highest close since May 22. WTI settles up 6.2% at $92.19, the highest since June 4. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1616 GMT - The backwardation in crude oil futures as WTI moves above $90 a barrel points to a retreat from current highs once military action in the Middle East ends, says Pavel Molchanov, investment strategy analyst at Raymond James. "The oil market's futures curve is, once again, steeply downward-sloping," he says. "WTI's November contract is below $85, January 2027 below $80, and May 2027 below $75." Raymond James's base case is for the fighting to end by mid-August, and "we expect all of these prices to shift further down," Molchanov adds. Front-month WTI is up 5.8% at $91.90 a barrel and Brent gains 6.6% to $100.26.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1556 GMT - The falling availability of oil from the Persian Gulf is likely to support crude prices in coming weeks, although immediate demand seems to have been met with the supply surge that occurred under the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, Vikas Dwivedi of Macquarie Group says in a note. "The reintroduction of geopolitical risk premium has driven the recent rally along with a short squeeze propelled by historically high short interest prior to the ceasefire's collapse," he says. Macquarie assigns a "medium probability" of modest escalation from here, "but a low probability for a return to a large-scale conflict, absent a serious miscalculation by either side." WTI is up 6.5% at $92.44 a barrel and Brent is up 6.8% at $100.82.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1517 GMT - Canadian energy companies are among the top gainers on Toronto's indexes as oil surges back higher, with Brent crude reaching $100 a barrel before easing amid renewed Middle East tensions flaring up. Crude jumped after Tehran-backed Houthi militants claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, threatening another key shipping route and reviving fears of a broader return to confrontation with Iran. Canada's energy companies have already benefited from higher prices and renewed investor interest during the early weeks of the conflict as limited movement in the key shipping lane of the Strait of Hormuz threatened global supplies. Among the top gainers in the session are Vermilion Energy, Athabasca Oil, Cenovus and Suncor. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
1450 GMT - U.A.E. stocks end higher as major banks rise, while Saudi Arabia also gains, supported by index heavyweight Saudi Aramco. This comes as President Trump says the U.S. would hold Iran responsible for future attacks by Houthi militants after the group fired on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. First Abu Dhabi Bank and Emirates NBD, the largest listed banks on their respective exchanges, support gains in Abu Dhabi and Dubai after both lenders reported resilient earnings in 2Q, a period marked by war-related disruptions. Healthy loan growth and solid capital levels are improving confidence in the banking sector, says Mazen Abou Ismail, head of trading desk at FFA Private Bank Dubai. Abu Dhabi's benchmark index gains 0.7%, Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index rises 0.3%, the Dubai Financial Market General Index adds 0.2% and Qatar's QE Index falls 0.3%. (farhan.salehrafid@wsj.com)
1343 GMT - Oil prices and Treasury yields are rising ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed, which was once navigating the appropriate time to possibly lower interest rates, is now increasingly focused on more inflation risks, such as higher energy prices and demand driven by artificial intelligence investment. Oil prices are climbing back to $100 a barrel as President Trump says the U.S. would hold Iran responsible for future attacks by Houthi militants after the group fired on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. Investors are pricing in the possibility that the Fed may need to raise rates in the future. The 10-year yield reaches its highest intraday level since January 2025. Still, according to the CME's FedWatch tool, only 35.8% of investors expect the Fed to raise rates next week.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 24, 2026 04:20 ET (08:20 GMT)
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