The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0950 ET - Sterling and euro were little moved by Friday's better-than-expected U.K. and eurozone purchasing managers' surveys as the data don't reflect the latest surge in energy prices, Monex Europe's Barry van der Laan says in a note. Both surveys were conducted between July 9 and 22, before Brent crude surged above $100 on the Middle East conflict, he says. "Had investors believed these surveys fundamentally changed the outlook for growth and inflation, both currencies should have responded positively." August PMIs and the next inflation releases carry more significance. They could show whether the renewed energy-price shock is impacting business confidence, pricing behaviors and activity, he says. Sterling and the euro are little changed at $1.3317 and $1.1371, respectively.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0945 ET - The dollar's strength looks set to persist until the U.S. and Iran can agree another ceasefire and energy prices come lower, ING analysts say in a note. A de-escalation in the conflict and a resumption in energy flows would cause oil prices to drop and U.S. interest rate rise expectations to unwind, they say. Should the conflict escalate and oil prices rise further, inflation would rise sharply and the Federal Reserve would need to respond by raising rates. The euro could fall below $1.13 while the dollar could rise to 165 yen, they say. The euro last trades down 0.1% at $1.1370 and the dollar is flat at 163.84 yen. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0847 ET - An agreement to end the U.S.-Iran conflict wouldn't necessarily bode well for the euro even if it is positive for the eurozone economy, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. If oil prices fall on any de-escalation in the conflict, the market could price out interest-rate rise expectations for the European Central Bank, he says. This was evident after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June where the euro saw little support from a significant fall in oil prices, he says. For now, ECB rate-rise bets are mitigating the negative impact of the recent jump in oil prices due to the re-escalation in the conflict, he says. The euro trades steady at $1.1381. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0840 ET - The latest U.S. tariffs on German goods imports increase uncertainty and create additional bureaucracy, the DIHK German chamber of commerce's trade chief Volker Treier says. "Uncertainty is, of course, poison for business." The Trump administration on Friday imposed a new 10% tariff on European Union products it said was designed to combat forced labor. Neither the accusations of insufficient measures against forced labor nor claims of alleged overcapacity stand up to scrutiny, Treier says. "It's clear Washington is trying to enforce tariffs that were halted in court in February through other legal avenues". On the positive side, the new tariffs incorporate the existing most favored nation tariffs, which mean the tariff rate should be below 15% in future, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0837 ET - The South African rand trades near its weakest level against the dollar since April in the wake of the central bank leaving interest rates unchanged Thursday. Rates were held at 7.0%, surprising many analysts who had expected a rate rise. The decision felt out of place on a day when Brent crude prices rose above $100 per barrel which should have significantly heightened inflation concerns, Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose says in a note. The policy statement also sounded "rather out of touch," signalling only one more rate rise in an adverse scenario compared to three previously, he says. The dollar rises 0.4% to 16.8777 rand, having risen to a 15-week high of 16.9797 earlier, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0824 ET - European equities are exposed to a clutch of possible negative catalysts, Bank of America analysts write. The Europe-wide Stoxx 600 remains close to record highs, while expectations for European companies' margins are at all-time highs, the analysts say. "Much of the good news is already in the price. This leaves the market vulnerable to disappointment," they say. Potential downside risks include wobbles in the AI trade and continued escalation in the Middle East leading to higher energy prices. Moreover, the prospect of a higher interest-rate environment could prompt further European underperformance. The Stoxx 600 rises 0.5% Friday, and is up 8.5% for the year. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0745 ET - Chinese government bonds have shown resilience despite the global market turbulence, emerging as a "clear low-volatility anchor," BlackRock's Navin Saigal says in a note. The Chinese government bonds have remained steady due to the government's supportive policy stance, strong domestic liquidity, and an economic cycle that is disconnected from the West, Saigal says. "Economies with greater policy autonomy and lower oil sensitivity, notably China, are better positioned as defensive anchors." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0716 ET - Bitcoin turns slightly lower as investors exercise caution towards risky assets amid concerns about a further escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict. President Trump told Axios on Thursday that he would soon make a decision on whether to launch a "massive attack" against Iran on a larger scale than ever before. Given the severity of the situation, the recent jump in oil prices might not represent the full scale of disruption to energy markets, XM analyst Raffi Boyadjian says in a note. "Investors are likely holding onto some optimism that Trump will seek a way out and agree to a ceasefire." Bitcoin drops 0.2% to $64,979, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0713 ET - The U.K. preliminary purchasing manager index data for July came in better than forecast, indicating economic resilience despite challenges from the Middle East conflict, Validus Risk Management's Harry Woolman says in a note. The U.K. flash composite PMI for July, which shows activity in the manufacturing and service sectors, climbed to 52.1 points from 49.3 points in June, above the consensus forecast of 49.8 points by economists in a WSJ poll. A reading above 50.0 points shows increased activity. The data provides "a welcome near-term tailwind for both policymakers and U.K. assets", Woolman says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0628 ET - Markets are likely to focus on the Bank of England's review of its gilt sales program, also referred to as quantitative tightening, during next week's policy meeting, Bank of America rates strategists say in a note. The BOE review could provide guidance on the pace of gilt sales for the 12-month period starting in October. Any indication of a slower pace of quantitative tightening and/or a further skew away from long-dated gilt sales could support gilts on an asset-swap basis, the strategists say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0624 ET - The U.K. flash purchasing managers' index for July shows improved business confidence as the World Cup lifted activity, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Rob Wood says in a note. The U.K. flash composite PMI for July, which measures manufacturing and services activity, rose to 52.1 points from 49.3 points in June. A reading above 50.0 points shows improved activity. The flash PMI data offers a tentative sign that U.K. economy can continue to rise at a healthy pace in the third quarter, Wood says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0618 ET - The dollar and Treasury yields fall slightly but remain near Thursday's highs as oil prices pull back marginally. Brent crude falls 3% to $97.73 a barrel, having reached a two-month high of $102 on Thursday driven by the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. Geopolitical risks are unlikely to fade anytime soon, keeping energy markets tight and inflation risks elevated, Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn says in a note. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 101.359, having hit a three-week high of 101.544 Thursday. The 10-year Treasury yield falls 2 basis points to 4.683%, below an 18-month high of 4.714% reached Thursday, Tradeweb data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 24, 2026 09:50 ET (13:50 GMT)
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