The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0945 ET - Oil futures are lower with Brent retreating below the $100 mark hit when Yemen's Houthis attacked Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, threatening the main alternative route for Saudi oil shipments. Prices are likely to stay within yesterday's range "with buying caution prompted ahead of a weekend that could bring major developments of either a bullish or bearish nature," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. The firm sees rising odds of renewed ceasefire talks, although Iran hasn't so far responded to President Trump's threats of massive attacks. "We feel that such events are more apt to skew bullish than bearish." Brent is off 2.8% at $97.89 a barrel, and WTI is down 2.3% at $90.09 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0945 ET - European natural-gas prices are headed for a weekly gain of more than 11%, as escalating hostilities in the Middle East continue to threaten global LNG supplies. In afternoon trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 3.3% to 64 euros a megawatt-hour. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have prompted Asian buyers to increase purchases of U.S. cargoes that would typically be destined for Europe. As a result, European LNG imports have fallen by more than is usual for the summer season. "If disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, upward pressure on European gas prices is likely to continue," says Norman Liebke from Commerzbank. The outlook is further complicated by Europe's historically low gas storage levels, which require substantial replenishment ahead of winter and will be difficult to rebuild without stronger LNG inflows. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0940 ET - Houthi threats in the Red Sea could force some vessels to reroute, increasing shipping costs and complicating logistics, but oil shipping from Yanbu is still expected to reach global markets, says Hamad Hussain from Capital Economics. "It is unlikely that all oil flows from Yanbu port will be choked off from global supply," the commodities economist says. Tankers carrying Saudi crude could still travel north through the Suez Canal, although the longer route would increase transit times and costs while limiting the ability of fully loaded supertankers to pass through. Another uncertainty is whether the blockade applies to all vessels. Some Chinese-flagged tankers have previously passed through the Bab El-Mandeb Strait without incident, raising questions over whether certain ships may continue operating, Hussain says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0847 ET - An agreement to end the U.S.-Iran conflict wouldn't necessarily bode well for the euro even if it is positive for the eurozone economy, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. If oil prices fall on any de-escalation in the conflict, the market could price out interest-rate rise expectations for the European Central Bank, he says. This was evident after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June where the euro saw little support from a significant fall in oil prices, he says. For now, ECB rate-rise bets are mitigating the negative impact of the recent jump in oil prices due to the re-escalation in the conflict, he says. The euro trades steady at $1.1381. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0824 ET - European equities are exposed to a clutch of possible negative catalysts, Bank of America analysts write. The Europe-wide Stoxx 600 remains close to record highs, while expectations for European companies' margins are at all-time highs, the analysts say. "Much of the good news is already in the price. This leaves the market vulnerable to disappointment," they say. Potential downside risks include wobbles in the AI trade and continued escalation in the Middle East leading to higher energy prices. Moreover, the prospect of a higher interest-rate environment could prompt further European underperformance. The Stoxx 600 rises 0.5% Friday, and is up 8.5% for the year. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0745 ET - Chinese government bonds have shown resilience despite the global market turbulence, emerging as a "clear low-volatility anchor," BlackRock's Navin Saigal says in a note. The Chinese government bonds have remained steady due to the government's supportive policy stance, strong domestic liquidity, and an economic cycle that is disconnected from the West, Saigal says. "Economies with greater policy autonomy and lower oil sensitivity, notably China, are better positioned as defensive anchors." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0621 ET - Palm oil ended higher. Prices are likely to remain supported in the near term, according to Chaos Ternary Futures analysts in a research note. Indonesia has officially launched its B50 biodiesel program, which will boost crude palm oil consumption, they point out. Data from Malaysia for July shows a month-on-month drop in production, they note. Despite recent retreats, middle east tension still keeps crude oil pries at elevated levels, which is likely to provide a support for crude palm oil's prices. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery rises 13 ringgit to 4,723 ringgit a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0618 ET - The dollar and Treasury yields fall slightly but remain near Thursday's highs as oil prices pull back marginally. Brent crude falls 3% to $97.73 a barrel, having reached a two-month high of $102 on Thursday driven by the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. Geopolitical risks are unlikely to fade anytime soon, keeping energy markets tight and inflation risks elevated, Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn says in a note. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 101.359, having hit a three-week high of 101.544 Thursday. The 10-year Treasury yield falls 2 basis points to 4.683%, below an 18-month high of 4.714% reached Thursday, Tradeweb data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0541 ET - The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% next week, but it could keep the door open to a hike at future meetings, Bank of America economists say in a note. Elevated energy prices raise the risk of a BOE rate rise this year, they say. The economists don't expect the BOE to give a strong signal about an imminent hike on Thursday, given uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and limited second-round effects from high oil prices so far. Markets are pricing a total of 44 basis points of BOE rate rises in 2026, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0536 ET - The dollar could remain supported by the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates ahead of Wednesday's decision, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The recent surge in energy prices, driven by a re-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, has boosted U.S. rate rise expectations. "While we do not think the Fed will hike next week, it remains very dangerous to fight this trend and, as we have been saying all week, we expect the dollar to outperform," Turner says. With President Trump threatening fresh military strikes against Iran, investors should hold onto bets for a stronger dollar into the weekend, he says. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 101.393 after reaching a three-week high of 101.544 Thursday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0513 ET - Japan could struggle to curtail the yen's depreciation against the dollar due to the U.S.-Iran conflict, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. President Trump told Axios Thursday that he is close to deciding whether to launch a "massive attack" against Iran on a scale that is "bigger than ever before." A large attack that lifts oil prices even higher could increase market pricing for an interest-rate rise by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, Halpenny says. "That will ensure Japan remains constrained by what they can do to curtail dollar/yen moving further higher." The dollar falls 0.1% to 163.71 yen, having reached a 40-year high of 163.98 on Thursday, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0511 ET - Sterling and U.K. government bonds show little reaction to a stronger-than-expected U.K. purchasing managers' survey as investors focus on the U.S.-Iran conflict. The composite PMI measure of business activity rose to 52.1 in July, exceeding the 49.8 consensus in a WSJ survey. The Middle East conflict has flared up in recent days, lifting oil prices. A sustained cooling in prices and improvement in business confidence is "by no means assured," S&P's Chris Williamson says in the survey's press release. Sterling rises 0.1% to $1.3324 while the euro trades flat at 0.8541 pounds, little changed from before the data. The 10-year gilt yield falls 5.1 basis points to 5.060%, Tradeweb data show, as oil prices fall from high levels. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 24, 2026 09:45 ET (13:45 GMT)
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