The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0824 ET - European equities are exposed to a clutch of possible negative catalysts, Bank of America analysts write. The Europe-wide Stoxx 600 remains close to record highs, while expectations for European companies' margins are at all-time highs, the analysts say. "Much of the good news is already in the price. This leaves the market vulnerable to disappointment," they say. Potential downside risks include wobbles in the AI trade and continued escalation in the Middle East leading to higher energy prices. Moreover, the prospect of a higher interest-rate environment could prompt further European underperformance. The Stoxx 600 rises 0.5% Friday, and is up 8.5% for the year. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0745 ET - Chinese government bonds have shown resilience despite the global market turbulence, emerging as a "clear low-volatility anchor," BlackRock's Navin Saigal says in a note. The Chinese government bonds have remained steady due to the government's supportive policy stance, strong domestic liquidity, and an economic cycle that is disconnected from the West, Saigal says. "Economies with greater policy autonomy and lower oil sensitivity, notably China, are better positioned as defensive anchors." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0716 ET - Bitcoin turns slightly lower as investors exercise caution towards risky assets amid concerns about a further escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict. President Trump told Axios on Thursday that he would soon make a decision on whether to launch a "massive attack" against Iran on a larger scale than ever before. Given the severity of the situation, the recent jump in oil prices might not represent the full scale of disruption to energy markets, XM analyst Raffi Boyadjian says in a note. "Investors are likely holding onto some optimism that Trump will seek a way out and agree to a ceasefire." Bitcoin drops 0.2% to $64,979, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0713 ET - The U.K. preliminary purchasing manager index data for July came in better than forecast, indicating economic resilience despite challenges from the Middle East conflict, Validus Risk Management's Harry Woolman says in a note. The U.K. flash composite PMI for July, which shows activity in the manufacturing and service sectors, climbed to 52.1 points from 49.3 points in June, above the consensus forecast of 49.8 points by economists in a WSJ poll. A reading above 50.0 points shows increased activity. The data provides "a welcome near-term tailwind for both policymakers and U.K. assets", Woolman says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0628 ET - Markets are likely to focus on the Bank of England's review of its gilt sales program, also referred to as quantitative tightening, during next week's policy meeting, Bank of America rates strategists say in a note. The BOE review could provide guidance on the pace of gilt sales for the 12-month period starting in October. Any indication of a slower pace of quantitative tightening and/or a further skew away from long-dated gilt sales could support gilts on an asset-swap basis, the strategists say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0624 ET - The U.K. flash purchasing managers' index for July shows improved business confidence as the World Cup lifted activity, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Rob Wood says in a note. The U.K. flash composite PMI for July, which measures manufacturing and services activity, rose to 52.1 points from 49.3 points in June. A reading above 50.0 points shows improved activity. The flash PMI data offers a tentative sign that U.K. economy can continue to rise at a healthy pace in the third quarter, Wood says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0618 ET - The dollar and Treasury yields fall slightly but remain near Thursday's highs as oil prices pull back marginally. Brent crude falls 3% to $97.73 a barrel, having reached a two-month high of $102 on Thursday driven by the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. Geopolitical risks are unlikely to fade anytime soon, keeping energy markets tight and inflation risks elevated, Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn says in a note. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 101.359, having hit a three-week high of 101.544 Thursday. The 10-year Treasury yield falls 2 basis points to 4.683%, below an 18-month high of 4.714% reached Thursday, Tradeweb data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0541 ET - The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% next week, but it could keep the door open to a hike at future meetings, Bank of America economists say in a note. Elevated energy prices raise the risk of a BOE rate rise this year, they say. The economists don't expect the BOE to give a strong signal about an imminent hike on Thursday, given uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and limited second-round effects from high oil prices so far. Markets are pricing a total of 44 basis points of BOE rate rises in 2026, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0536 ET - The dollar could remain supported by the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates ahead of Wednesday's decision, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The recent surge in energy prices, driven by a re-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, has boosted U.S. rate rise expectations. "While we do not think the Fed will hike next week, it remains very dangerous to fight this trend and, as we have been saying all week, we expect the dollar to outperform," Turner says. With President Trump threatening fresh military strikes against Iran, investors should hold onto bets for a stronger dollar into the weekend, he says. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 101.393 after reaching a three-week high of 101.544 Thursday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0513 ET - Japan could struggle to curtail the yen's depreciation against the dollar due to the U.S.-Iran conflict, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. President Trump told Axios Thursday that he is close to deciding whether to launch a "massive attack" against Iran on a scale that is "bigger than ever before." A large attack that lifts oil prices even higher could increase market pricing for an interest-rate rise by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, Halpenny says. "That will ensure Japan remains constrained by what they can do to curtail dollar/yen moving further higher." The dollar falls 0.1% to 163.71 yen, having reached a 40-year high of 163.98 on Thursday, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0511 ET - Sterling and U.K. government bonds show little reaction to a stronger-than-expected U.K. purchasing managers' survey as investors focus on the U.S.-Iran conflict. The composite PMI measure of business activity rose to 52.1 in July, exceeding the 49.8 consensus in a WSJ survey. The Middle East conflict has flared up in recent days, lifting oil prices. A sustained cooling in prices and improvement in business confidence is "by no means assured," S&P's Chris Williamson says in the survey's press release. Sterling rises 0.1% to $1.3324 while the euro trades flat at 0.8541 pounds, little changed from before the data. The 10-year gilt yield falls 5.1 basis points to 5.060%, Tradeweb data show, as oil prices fall from high levels. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0459 ET - A hit to Moncler's share price looks overdone, with current challenges likely to ease, analysts at Berenberg write in a note to clients. The Italian fashion group saw its shares lose more than 7% on Thursday after the company reported slower sales growth over the second quarter. That weakness reflects timing issues and a hit to tourism in Europe from the Middle East conflict, Berenberg says. "[But] both trends may unwind, the latter if emerging euro weakness is sustained," the bank says. The euro fell to a three-week low this week after the ECB kept interest rates on hold despite growing inflation fears, a trend that could make European holidays more attractive to U.S. and Asian visitors. Berenberg has a hold rating and a 57-euro target on Moncler shares, which Friday gain a little ground back to 47.50 euros. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 24, 2026 08:25 ET (12:25 GMT)
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