The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1024 GMT - The U.K. flash purchasing managers' index for July shows improved business confidence as the World Cup lifted activity, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Rob Wood says in a note. The U.K. flash composite PMI for July, which measures manufacturing and services activity, rose to 52.1 points from 49.3 points in June. A reading above 50.0 points shows improved activity. The flash PMI data offers a tentative sign that U.K. economy can continue to rise at a healthy pace in the third quarter, Wood says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1018 GMT - The dollar and Treasury yields fall slightly but remain near Thursday's highs as oil prices pull back marginally. Brent crude falls 3% to $97.73 a barrel, having reached a two-month high of $102 on Thursday driven by the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. Geopolitical risks are unlikely to fade anytime soon, keeping energy markets tight and inflation risks elevated, Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn says in a note. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 101.359, having hit a three-week high of 101.544 Thursday. The 10-year Treasury yield falls 2 basis points to 4.683%, below an 18-month high of 4.714% reached Thursday, Tradeweb data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0941 GMT - The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% next week, but it could keep the door open to a hike at future meetings, Bank of America economists say in a note. Elevated energy prices raise the risk of a BOE rate rise this year, they say. The economists don't expect the BOE to give a strong signal about an imminent hike on Thursday, given uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and limited second-round effects from high oil prices so far. Markets are pricing a total of 44 basis points of BOE rate rises in 2026, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0936 GMT - The dollar could remain supported by the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates ahead of Wednesday's decision, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The recent surge in energy prices, driven by a re-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, has boosted U.S. rate rise expectations. "While we do not think the Fed will hike next week, it remains very dangerous to fight this trend and, as we have been saying all week, we expect the dollar to outperform," Turner says. With President Trump threatening fresh military strikes against Iran, investors should hold onto bets for a stronger dollar into the weekend, he says. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 101.393 after reaching a three-week high of 101.544 Thursday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0913 GMT - Japan could struggle to curtail the yen's depreciation against the dollar due to the U.S.-Iran conflict, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. President Trump told Axios Thursday that he is close to deciding whether to launch a "massive attack" against Iran on a scale that is "bigger than ever before." A large attack that lifts oil prices even higher could increase market pricing for an interest-rate rise by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, Halpenny says. "That will ensure Japan remains constrained by what they can do to curtail dollar/yen moving further higher." The dollar falls 0.1% to 163.71 yen, having reached a 40-year high of 163.98 on Thursday, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0911 GMT - Sterling and U.K. government bonds show little reaction to a stronger-than-expected U.K. purchasing managers' survey as investors focus on the U.S.-Iran conflict. The composite PMI measure of business activity rose to 52.1 in July, exceeding the 49.8 consensus in a WSJ survey. The Middle East conflict has flared up in recent days, lifting oil prices. A sustained cooling in prices and improvement in business confidence is "by no means assured," S&P's Chris Williamson says in the survey's press release. Sterling rises 0.1% to $1.3324 while the euro trades flat at 0.8541 pounds, little changed from before the data. The 10-year gilt yield falls 5.1 basis points to 5.060%, Tradeweb data show, as oil prices fall from high levels. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0859 GMT - A hit to Moncler's share price looks overdone, with current challenges likely to ease, analysts at Berenberg write in a note to clients. The Italian fashion group saw its shares lose more than 7% on Thursday after the company reported slower sales growth over the second quarter. That weakness reflects timing issues and a hit to tourism in Europe from the Middle East conflict, Berenberg says. "[But] both trends may unwind, the latter if emerging euro weakness is sustained," the bank says. The euro fell to a three-week low this week after the ECB kept interest rates on hold despite growing inflation fears, a trend that could make European holidays more attractive to U.S. and Asian visitors. Berenberg has a hold rating and a 57-euro target on Moncler shares, which Friday gain a little ground back to 47.50 euros. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)
0833 GMT - The cost of default protection for European financial credit remains fairly high as geopolitical concerns and AI jitters weigh on market sentiment. Investors are concerned about the continuing Middle East conflict as well as huge spending plans by AI companies. The iTraxx Europe Senior Financials index of senior financial credit trades steady at 58 basis points, a 2-month high, after rising to that level on Thursday, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0829 GMT - The euro stays slightly higher against the dollar while eurozone government bond yields remain lower after the July eurozone purchasing managers' survey exceeded expectations. The eurozone composite purchasing managers' index rose to 51.9 in July from 50.0 in June, above the 50.2 forecast by economists in a WSJ survey. High oil prices could weigh on economic activity going forward, however. "July is seeing a welcome revival of economic activity in the eurozone, but a volatile geopolitical environment means it remains to be seen if the good news can last," S&P economist Chris Williamson says in the survey's press release. The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1387. The 10-year German bund yield falls 1.4 basis points to 3.195%, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0811 GMT - The euro and sterling could fall if energy prices continue rising markedly, with the risk of a further escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. The rise in natural gas prices impacts household incomes which can feed through into weaker consumer spending and growth, he says.While expectations for interest-rates rises are becoming more aligned between the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, investors are likely to see the U.S. economy being better able to manage potential tightening, he says. The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1393 after reaching a three-week low of $1.1363 on Thursday, LSEG data show. Sterling rises 0.1% after hitting a three-week low of $1.3296 Thursday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0800 GMT - U.K. retail spending could decelerate in the second half of the year as inflation is expected to hurt spending, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Rob Wood says in a note. U.K. retail sales data shows monthly sales increased by 1.0% in June, stronger than the consensus forecast of a 0.1% contraction by economists in a WSJ poll. U.K. inflation is projected to rise in the second half, eroding households' real income growth and affecting consumer spending, Wood says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0738 GMT - Gold prices are back below $4,100 as higher real yields and rate-hike bets weigh on the non-yielding metal's appeal. In early trading, New York futures are up 0.05% to $4,052.40 a troy ounce, leaving prices on track for a modest weekly gain after a rebound earlier this week. The market's main focus remains on monetary policy, as higher interest rates reduce bullion's appeal. "The benign June price data brought the Fed some more time to gauge how inflation evolves over the coming months," says Thomas Ryan from Capital Economics. "If inflation pressures remain as persistent as we expect, the Fed will begin tightening policy with a 25-basis-point hike in September, a move now fully priced into markets following the rebound in WTI to more than $90 a barrel." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 24, 2026 06:24 ET (10:24 GMT)
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