The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1559 ET - Treasury's fell sending yields higher in a quiet week for U.S. economic data and Fed speakers, with policymakers in a blackout period ahead of next Wednesday's interest-rate decision. U.S. leading economic indicators edged lower in June on weakening consumer spending, according to a report from The Conference Board. Meanwhile, the average price for a gallon of gasoline topped $4, according to AAA, following a recent surge in oil prices stemming from escalating military conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Brent crude futures briefly topped $90 a barrel this morning. The 10-year yield rose 0.055 percentage point to 4.597%. The two-year yield rose 0.042 percentage point to 4.214%. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1502 ET - CoinMarketCap's Fear and Greed index is drawing closer to neutral territory, which would be the first time since May the sentiment is that positive. CoinMarketCap assesses the score at 38 out-of 100, which is a reading slightly outside of the 40-60 range for neutral sentiment. Sentiment has been on a gradual improvement, gaining 12 percent since the early days of June. Bitcoin prices are trading up 1.5%, trading above the threshold of near-term resistance at up 1.4% to $65.1k. Ethereum are up 2.1% to over $1,900, and XRP climbs 1.8% to $1.11. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1321 ET - Canada is in the early stages of following through on plans to build domestic industrial capacity rather than just buying defense equipment, a trend that is positive for local companies, TD Securities says. In recent weeks there has been a flurry of defense-related news, including a historic decision on submarines and plans to order surveillance aircraft. TD says neither of those deals were a surprise, yet were still good news for Bombardier, CAE and Magellan Aerospace. TD adds developments like these should bring industrial benefits to Canada's defense industry, as they include domestic participation and supply chains, as well as Canadian jobs. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)
1310 ET - The Fed's preferred measure of core inflation [PCE] will look less threatening because of new methodological changes, Oxford Economics writes. At the end of September, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its annual revisions to the National Income and Product Accounts. Three controversial categories will see significant changes in how they're calculated - portfolio management fees, computer software and accessories, and legal services. "Given the near-equal divide on the Federal Open Market Committee between keeping rates on hold and raising them, the revisions give the doves on the committee a bit more cover and nudge policy toward remaining on hold," they write. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1136 ET - The spread between 10- and 2-year Treasury yields will narrow further over the coming months, and Capital Economics said continued escalation in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to the curve inverting outright. "One reason for this difference is that short-term real interest-rate expectations have risen by more than long-term ones, likely in response to strong economic data," the firm wrote. Capital Economics also expects the 2s10s curve to flatten further as investors price in additional rate hikes. "We forecast the Fed to hike by 75bp over the coming year, compared to the 40bp now discounted in markets," they wrote. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1134 ET - Bitcoin ETFs are back to winning ways after spending most of the previous month on a losing streak, with fund money seen exiting those ETFs in favor of more-lucrative holdings like AI stocks. These ETFs have recorded net inflows for four consecutive sessions, according to data from CoinGlass. Friday's trading resulted in a net inflow of $132.3 million. Retail buying is seen as having come back to the crypto space, but institutional money has been slow to re-enter positions held earlier this year in cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is up 0.4%, while ethereum is up 0.8% and XRP is up 0.5%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1132 ET - Continued transatlantic trade threats reinforce the notion that the European Union must reject the U.S. probe into Germany over drug pricing, the DIHK German Chambers of Commerce's trade chief Volker Treier says. The U.S. in June said it would investigate the German government's plans to reduce spending on pharmaceuticals. There is great concern in German industry that the U.S. could soon impose further tariffs, Treier says. The EU should insist on compliance with the EU-U.S. trade deal agreed on last year, he says. "European regulatory sovereignty must not become a bargaining chip in negotiations with Washington." The EU shouldn't forget its long-term goal of eliminating the WTO-incompatible U.S. tariffs either, Treier notes. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1115 ET - The European Union's trade deal agreed a year ago with the U.S. has failed to achieve its goal of stable transatlantic economic relations, the DIHK German Chambers of Industry and Commerce's Volker Treier says. The deal, which places a tariff cap of 15% on most EU goods imports to the U.S., hasn't stopped companies facing new tariff threats, additional bureaucratic hurdles, and legal uncertainty, Treier says. "As long as conditions can change at any time, investments will fall short of their potential and long-term business decisions will be postponed." To diversify the EU's trade, agreements with Indonesia and Australia should be ratified swiftly, he says. Talks with Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines must be at the top of the agenda, he adds. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1106 ET - Cryptocurrencies are under pressure as markets are expecting at least one Fed rate hike this year. "Markets continue to price at least one rate hike before the end of the year and short dated real yields remain elevated," says Stephen Coltman of 21shares in a note. Coltman points to any slowdown in AI business as a potential point where rate hike expectations may fade in lieu of cuts, which would in turn benefit cryptocurrencies and other assets. Bitcoin is down 0.3%, while ethereum falls 0.1%, XRP is down 0.4%, solana is flat, and dogecoin is down 0.2%. Zcash, which has been charging back toward the $600 mark, is down 3.5% today. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1050 ET - Bitcoin falls 0.2% to around $64,400 as a rally that pushed prices back over $65,000 last week appears to falter. $65k is seen as a major resistance marker for bitcoin, says Naeem Aslam of Zaye Capital Markets in a note. He attributes the cooling of the push higher to "limited liquidity and broader risk-off positioning," but says that bitcoin managing to maintain a price level above $65k in the near-future could signal a new leg-up for the cryptocurrency. Ethereum is flat around $1,866, XRP is down 0.3% to $1.09, and solana is up 0.3% to $76.28. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1046 ET - The U.K.'s high spending on the welfare bill could continue to drive up inflation and keep interest rates high, Eurizon SLJ Capital CEO Stephen Li Jen says in a note. New U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham faces the challenge of controlling the country's high cost of living, Jen says. Investors price in a total of 40 basis points of interest-rate rises by the Bank of England in 2026 as inflation concerns stay high, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1039 ET - The dollar has failed to benefit from higher oil prices in July as markets focus on interest-rate differentials, Standard Chartered's Steve Englander says in a note. Since the resumption of U.S.-Iran strikes, the dollar has dropped. If the market expects the Federal Reserve to be less reactive to higher oil prices on the assumption of little or temporary inflation impact, the dollar could fall further in the near term, he says. Standard Chartered still expects dollar strength over the medium term. "However, we need to see either a clearer cyclical rebound in the U.S. economy or a more definitive upward move in equilibrium real [inflation-adjusted] interest rates before dollar strength emerges."The DXY dollar index rises 0.2% to 100.95.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 20, 2026 15:59 ET (19:59 GMT)
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