The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0321 GMT - The Singapore dollar is steady against its U.S. counterpart as traders assess various developments over the Middle East conflict. While U.S. military forces carried out another round of strikes against multiple targets in Iran, mediators have been working to encourage the U.S. and Iran to agree to a new ceasefire. "Our base case has been for a managed escalation in the Middle East, allowing low market volatility to persist," two strategists at OCBC Group Research say in a research report. This could limit further U.S. dollar gains ahead of the Fed policy meeting next week, the strategists add. The U.S. dollar is little changed at S$1.2908. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0252 GMT - Bitcoin is little changed at $65,310.22 in early Asian trading. The cryptocurrency is consolidating around the $64,500 level, supported by healthy investor gains and stable positioning in derivatives markets, says crypto research firm Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish. Speculative appetite is gradually returning, with futures and options open interest increasing, while U.S. spot bitcoin ETF flows have recovered toward breakeven, suggesting institutional selling pressure is easing. However, the growing share of short-term, price-sensitive capital in trading may lead to sharper price volatility, Glassnode adds. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
0249 GMT - South Korea is expected to post softer but resilient 2Q growth, supported by robust chip exports fueled by the artificial intelligence boom. Gross domestic product likely grew 0.4% on quarter, slowing from the revised 1.8% expansion in 1Q, according to the median forecast from a WSJ poll of 15 economists. On an on-year basis, GDP growth likely remained solid, with a 3.4% expansion following 3.8% growth in 1Q, the poll shows. "With the AI-driven semiconductor boom rolling on, exports will again do the heavy lifting," Moody's Analytics says in a note. Citigroup has raised its 2Q and 2026 growth forecast, citing strong chip exports. The 2Q GDP data are due Thursday. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)
0236 GMT - Indonesia's central bank is expected to raise its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate by 25 bps to 6.0% on Wednesday, according to six out of the nine economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. The other three economists forecast Bank Indonesia to keep the policy rate unchanged. Bank Indonesia has implemented a series of rate increases and liquidity measures to support the economy, HSBC economists say in a note. While these measures have helped attract some capital inflows, the rupiah remains under pressure amid rising oil prices, supporting the case for another rate increase, HSBC adds. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0223 GMT - Singapore's inflation likely ticked up in June, as higher energy prices continue to feed through to transport and utility costs, say analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, in a note. Imported inflation has risen by almost 20% on year since March. "Broader price pressures are likely to emerge later, as consumer price inflation typically tracks import costs with a lag," the analysts add. While inflation is expected to rise further, government support, including new support packages for households, should help cushion the impact on consumer spending power. BMI estimates that Singapore's headline inflation accelerated to 2.0% in June, from May's 1.8%.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0221 GMT - Singaporeans' inflation expectations rose slightly, taking cues from global developments, such as the Middle East conflict, that could drive up prices, a survey shows. While fewer respondents in the quarterly survey expect inflation will rise over the next year, their expectations for the gain inched up to an average of 3.4% in June from 3.3% in the prior edition, an index by DBS and Singapore Management University shows. Global inflation is rebounding this year due to supply-side constraints of energy products and the demand-side pull from the artificial-intelligence boom, but Singapore's headline and core figures rose only modestly, which keep inflation expectations in check, says Taimur Baig, DBS's chief economist. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0217 GMT - Malaysia's exports growth may slow in 2H, as inventory restocking in the electrical and electronics sector eases, base effects fade and global trade normalizes, Kenanga IB analysts say in a note. They raise their 2026 export growth forecast to 19.0% from 9.7% following strong 1H trade data. GDP growth is expected to moderate in 2H as export momentum normalizes, while domestic demand should remain supportive, they add. Kenanga maintains its 2026 Malaysia GDP growth forecast at 4.5%-5.0%, with upside potential, if current momentum persists into 2H. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0205 GMT - The Trump administration's announcement of an additional 50% duty on Canada, following the announcement of a levy on Brazil, could be a way to rebuild its tariff regime. Capital Economics' Stephen Brown notes the administration is resorting to a new method that cites Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act. That may be an attempt to see if Section 338--which some commentators suggest was superseded by subsequent legislation--could be used to impose duties on other countries in the future, the economist says. If so, that could help the administration regain some of the flexibility it lost when the Supreme Court struck down prior tariffs, though Brown notes considerable uncertainty about whether it will follow through with new duties and if those will be upheld by the courts. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
0155 GMT - Malaysia's trade growth is expected to moderate in 2H after a strong 1H, TA Securities analyst Farid Burhanuddin says in a note. Export demand should remain supported by an electrical and electronics upward cycle and steady global demand, but a stronger ringgit, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over U.S. trade policy could weigh on momentum, he says. Some of the recent export strength may also have reflected front-loading ahead of potential tariff changes, he reckons. However, Malaysia's diversified export base and continued supply-chain relocation are expected to cushion external risks, allowing trade to continue to support the country's economic growth and external balances, albeit at a slower pace, he adds. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0154 GMT - A resolution to the Middle East conflict still looks reasonable, MUFG Bank's Michael Wan says in a research report. "Latest indications are that there continues to be talks and discussions happening in the background including through mediators," the senior currency analyst notes. With the U.S. mid-term elections coming up, coupled with the lack of munitions by the U.S. military, oil prices may not revisit the highs seen earlier in the conflict. Wan says. "If this assumption is right, this implies some space for Asian currencies including oil-sensitive currencies INR and PHP to do somewhat better from here," Wan adds. The dollar is little changed at 61.672 pesos and is 0.1% higher at 33.65 baht, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0046 GMT - The signals from New Zealand's 2Q underlying inflation data were mixed and shouldn't move the dial much for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, says Miles Workman, senior economist at ANZ. The trimmed mean and weighted median measures accelerated, but the ex-fuel and energy measure slowed, and services inflation cooled meaningfully, he notes. Still, while 2Q should mark the peak in inflation, fuel prices are currently rising again and the RBNZ is unlikely to stop worrying about potential spillover effects any time soon, he adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0023 GMT - New Zealand's still-contained underlying inflation gives RBNZ some breathing room, Capital Economics' Abhijit Surya says in commentary. Data released earlier showed the "pickup in price pressures last quarter was not particularly broad-based, with measures of core inflation still well behaved," the senior APAC economist says. Overall, the inflation readings "won't instil a sense of urgency in the RBNZ to deliver back-to-back hikes as financial markets are expecting," Surya says. Capital Economics' base case continues to be for RBNZ to wait until October to raise rates. Also, Capital Economics still sees RBNZ's tightening cycle will be relatively shallow, with Official Cash Rate peaking at 3.25% in mid-2027. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 20, 2026 23:21 ET (03:21 GMT)
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