The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0845 ET - The European Central Bank's decision to leave interest rates unchanged was no surprise, and the accompanying press release gives no clear signal about its next move, Capital Economics' Jack Allen-Reynolds says in a note. Despite the increase in oil prices over recent weeks, the commentary maintains a neutral tone on the policy outlook, noting that energy prices are close to the ECB's baseline assumptions, he says. If energy prices drop back in the coming months, the bank is likely to leave interest rates unchanged this year, Allen-Reynolds notes. "But if energy prices keep rising, there's a good chance that it will hike again." If policymakers expect to hike in September, ECB President Christine Lagarde might give a hint at the press conference later, he adds. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0842 ET - The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday. However, against a backdrop of higher commodity prices and the latest increased tensions in the Middle East, this pause is likely to be temporary, Fidelity International's Conor Parle says in a note. "Beyond oil prices, gas prices had been increasing even before the recent heightened tensions," the eurozone economist says. Reasonable resilience in the euro area economy means that once the ECB updates its September forecasts it will likely be in a comfortable position to increase rates by a further 25 basis points, while sending a clear message about its commitment to price stability, Parle says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0836 ET - Eurozone government bond yields stay higher on the day but trim their rises after the European Central Bank left interest rates on hold, as expected, having raised rates at its previous meeting. The 10-year Bund yield falls to 3.188%, from 3.194% before the decision, although it remains 0.9 basis points higher on the day. The yield hit a 15-year high of 3.205% earlier in the day. The two-year Schatz yield is up 1.5 basis points at 2.854%, versus 2.864% beforehand. The ECB didn't provide any direct hints that rates would rise further. However, it said uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict remains high and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0822 ET - Yields on U.K. 2-year government bonds climb as investors bet on the prospects of the Bank of England raising interest rates in the coming months due to surging oil prices. Investors are concerned about the risk of hostilities persisting, keeping energy prices up and forcing central banks to increase interest rates. Markets price in a total of 47 basis points of BOE rate rises in 2026 as the Middle East war intensifies, LSEG data show. Two-year gilt yields are up 3.5 basis points to last trade at 4.466%, having hit a two-month high of 4.474% earlier in the session, Tradeweb data show. Ten-year gilt yields also hit a two-month high of 5.088%. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0802 ET - The dollar rises to a three-week high as it reverts to its traditional safe-haven role, with correlations to equities and interest rates somewhat normalizing, TD Securities strategists say in a note. "A sustained dollar surge, however, looks unlikely as rate differentials are not expected to return to 2022 extremes when the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle materially outpaced global peers." A solid U.S. economy is no longer enough for dollar outperformance as markets demand a much larger U.S. growth and equity premium, they say. TD expects modest dollar strength in the third quarter, citing room for long positioning to build, but expects it to fall towards year-end. The DXY dollar index rises to as high as 101.370. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0746 ET - British Gas owner Centrica is dialing down 2027 expectations for its Centrica Energy trading unit, pointing to continued challenges for the business that won't be well received, RBC Capital Markets' Alexander Wheeler and Ziyad Jasimuddin say in a note. The business was positioned for an excess supply of gas at the start of this year and the hit now seems to be rolling into 2027, RBC says. The U.K. energy group said it expects 2027 adjusted Ebitda for Centrica Energy to be around the levels it recorded in 2025 and expects in 2026. This points to a result of between 200 million to 250 million pounds that compares with consensus expectations of 298 million pounds, according to RBC. Shares fall 8%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)
0709 ET - U.K. inflation is expected to accelerate after slowing in June and could hit a peak of 3.3% in November, UBS Investment Bank economists say in a note. Utility bills are expected to rise in July and could push up annual headline inflation up to 2.9% from 2.6% in June, the economists say. "We expect food and goods inflation to pick up towards year-end as higher input costs--particularly for energy and fertilisers--are gradually passed through to consumers." The worsening Middle East conflict raises the risk of rising inflation, they say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0627 ET - Palm oil ended higher as crude oil and soybean oil prices surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle East conflict, according to David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. The U.S. is increasing the presence of forces, medics and weaponry to the Middle East to give President Trump more military options, as he considers expanding the conflict against Iran, The Wall Street Journal reported. Ng sees prices for palm oil well supported above 4,600 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,780 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery rose 87 ringgit to 4,709 a ton.(tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0606 ET - Centrica's decision to raise its interim dividend is generous given it is suffering from energy market volatility, AJ Bell's Russ Mould writes. The energy company has hiked its interim dividend by 9% to 2 pence a share. It is too simple that say Centrica is benefiting from higher energy prices, Mould says. Investment in several areas puts pressure on cash flow while the company has some bad debts, he says. Its retail-facing British Gas business performs better, he adds. Shares fall 9.3% to 163 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0600 ET - Shipping-insurance costs in the Strait of Hormuz surge as renewed tanker attacks make underwriters more reluctant to offer coverage, S&P Global Energy reports. Additional war-risk premiums have risen to between 7.5% and 10% of a vessel's hull value from 1% to 3% several weeks ago, while some tanker operators remain outside the strait rather than risk transit. Commercial activity also remains limited, with 10 vessels crossing Hormuz on Tuesday, compared with more than 130 daily transits before the Middle East war began, according to S&P. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
0552 ET - The cost of insuring high-yield euro-denominated credit against default rises to a six-week high due to risk-off sentiment as the U.S.-Iran war intensifies. The U.S. on Wednesday said it fired strikes against Iranian targets, the 12th consecutive day of attacks. Iran continued attacks on ships on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran-backed Houthis claimed strikes on tankers in the Red Sea. The widening conflict has led investors to exercise caution. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps rises 3 basis points to 260bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0504 ET - The Japanese yen falls to a fresh 40-year low against the dollar and the Swiss franc hits an 11-month low versus the dollar as the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict sends oil prices higher. The low-yielding yen and the franc are two of the worst performing G-10 currencies since the U.S.-Iran conflict started in late February and continue to underperform this month, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. "The negative energy price shock and building expectations for European Central Bank and Federal Reserve rate hikes has weighed on both currencies." The dollar rises to as high as 0.8156 francs and 163.44 yen. The euro also rises to a six-month high of 0.9316 Swiss francs, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 23, 2026 08:45 ET (12:45 GMT)
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