The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0911 GMT - Sterling and U.K. government bonds show little reaction to a stronger-than-expected U.K. purchasing managers' survey as investors focus on the U.S.-Iran conflict. The composite PMI measure of business activity rose to 52.1 in July, exceeding the 49.8 consensus in a WSJ survey. The Middle East conflict has flared up in recent days, lifting oil prices. A sustained cooling in prices and improvement in business confidence is "by no means assured," S&P's Chris Williamson says in the survey's press release. Sterling rises 0.1% to $1.3324 while the euro trades flat at 0.8541 pounds, little changed from before the data. The 10-year gilt yield falls 5.1 basis points to 5.060%, Tradeweb data show, as oil prices fall from high levels. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0859 GMT - A hit to Moncler's share price looks overdone, with current challenges likely to ease, analysts at Berenberg write in a note to clients. The Italian fashion group saw its shares lose more than 7% on Thursday after the company reported slower sales growth over the second quarter. That weakness reflects timing issues and a hit to tourism in Europe from the Middle East conflict, Berenberg says. "[But] both trends may unwind, the latter if emerging euro weakness is sustained," the bank says. The euro fell to a three-week low this week after the ECB kept interest rates on hold despite growing inflation fears, a trend that could make European holidays more attractive to U.S. and Asian visitors. Berenberg has a hold rating and a 57-euro target on Moncler shares, which Friday gain a little ground back to 47.50 euros. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)
0833 GMT - The cost of default protection for European financial credit remains fairly high as geopolitical concerns and AI jitters weigh on market sentiment. Investors are concerned about the continuing Middle East conflict as well as huge spending plans by AI companies. The iTraxx Europe Senior Financials index of senior financial credit trades steady at 58 basis points, a 2-month high, after rising to that level on Thursday, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0829 GMT - The euro stays slightly higher against the dollar while eurozone government bond yields remain lower after the July eurozone purchasing managers' survey exceeded expectations. The eurozone composite purchasing managers' index rose to 51.9 in July from 50.0 in June, above the 50.2 forecast by economists in a WSJ survey. High oil prices could weigh on economic activity going forward, however. "July is seeing a welcome revival of economic activity in the eurozone, but a volatile geopolitical environment means it remains to be seen if the good news can last," S&P economist Chris Williamson says in the survey's press release. The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1387. The 10-year German bund yield falls 1.4 basis points to 3.195%, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0811 GMT - The euro and sterling could fall if energy prices continue rising markedly, with the risk of a further escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. The rise in natural gas prices impacts household incomes which can feed through into weaker consumer spending and growth, he says.While expectations for interest-rates rises are becoming more aligned between the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, investors are likely to see the U.S. economy being better able to manage potential tightening, he says. The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1393 after reaching a three-week low of $1.1363 on Thursday, LSEG data show. Sterling rises 0.1% after hitting a three-week low of $1.3296 Thursday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0800 GMT - U.K. retail spending could decelerate in the second half of the year as inflation is expected to hurt spending, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Rob Wood says in a note. U.K. retail sales data shows monthly sales increased by 1.0% in June, stronger than the consensus forecast of a 0.1% contraction by economists in a WSJ poll. U.K. inflation is projected to rise in the second half, eroding households' real income growth and affecting consumer spending, Wood says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0738 GMT - Gold prices are back below $4,100 as higher real yields and rate-hike bets weigh on the non-yielding metal's appeal. In early trading, New York futures are up 0.05% to $4,052.40 a troy ounce, leaving prices on track for a modest weekly gain after a rebound earlier this week. The market's main focus remains on monetary policy, as higher interest rates reduce bullion's appeal. "The benign June price data brought the Fed some more time to gauge how inflation evolves over the coming months," says Thomas Ryan from Capital Economics. "If inflation pressures remain as persistent as we expect, the Fed will begin tightening policy with a 25-basis-point hike in September, a move now fully priced into markets following the rebound in WTI to more than $90 a barrel." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0734 GMT - China is likely able to draw down its crude inventories and sustain historically low import levels for several more months, possibly into 2027, Capital Economics says in a note. Economist Hamad Hussain says the sharp decline in China's crude imports has been a key factor capping global oil prices. He argues the drop reflects the end of China's streak of oil stockpiling, rather than weaker end-user demand from long-term trends such as rising EV adoption. However, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for much longer, oil markets are still likely to reach a tipping point in the coming months, potentially pushing crude prices to $120 a barrel or higher. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
0727 GMT - The recent re-escalation of the Middle East conflict could transform the energy supply disruption from a crude-routing problem to a broader supply-chain crisis, ANZ commodity strategists say in a research note. The oil market has avoided a more disorderly price response so far because of several buffers, including China's sharp reduction in crude imports, they say. However, the latest strikes raise concerns about whether these buffers can effectively keep the world supplied with oil, as a disruption to the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb shipping would undermine one of the market's most important workarounds, they note. ANZ maintains its end-Q3 2026 Brent crude forecast of $92 per barrel, but warns if regional supply disruptions intensify, Brent could rise towards $120 a barrel. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0721 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, decline slightly as oil prices stabilize, reversing Thursday's rise when 10-year gilt yields hit a 2-month high of 5.122%. U.K. retail sales data for June were better than expected, with monthly sales rising by 1.0%, better than the consensus forecast for a 0.1% contraction by economists in a WSJ survey. The data show that "households remain willing to run down their high saving rate to maintain their spending levels in the face of higher energy costs," Pantheon Macroeconomics' Rob Wood says in a note. Ten-year gilt yields fall 2.4 basis points to last trade at 5.088%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0717 GMT - Bitcoin rises slightly as U.S. stock futures stabilize after sharp falls overnight. A jump in oil prices due to the U.S.-Iran conflict contributed to falls in equities and cryptocurrencies Thursday along with earnings from Tesla and Alphabet raising concerns about AI spending. Oil prices ease slightly Friday, although remain elevated, supporting expectations the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates this year. Bitcoin rises 0.6% to $65,509, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0705 GMT - Eurozone government bonds recover slightly as investors await French, German and eurozone purchasing managers' surveys. Any weakness in the readings could ease concerns about prospects of the European Central Bank raising interest rates. However, yields remain elevated, with the 10-year Bund yield having hit its highest since 2011 on Thursday. They risk rising further with Brent crude prices trading near $100 a barrel and the ECB suggesting on Thursday that rates could rise again. Rising oil prices will likely keep bond markets under pressure, though the PMI data "could provide some relief," Commerzbank analysts say in a note. The 10-year Bund yield falls 1.4 basis points to 3.1950, having hit 3.2118% on Thursday, LSEG data show. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 24, 2026 05:12 ET (09:12 GMT)
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