The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2046 ET - The signals from New Zealand's 2Q underlying inflation data were mixed and shouldn't move the dial much for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, says Miles Workman, senior economist at ANZ. The trimmed mean and weighted median measures accelerated, but the ex-fuel and energy measure slowed, and services inflation cooled meaningfully, he notes. Still, while 2Q should mark the peak in inflation, fuel prices are currently rising again and the RBNZ is unlikely to stop worrying about potential spillover effects any time soon, he adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
2023 ET - New Zealand's still-contained underlying inflation gives RBNZ some breathing room, Capital Economics' Abhijit Surya says in commentary. Data released earlier showed the "pickup in price pressures last quarter was not particularly broad-based, with measures of core inflation still well behaved," the senior APAC economist says. Overall, the inflation readings "won't instil a sense of urgency in the RBNZ to deliver back-to-back hikes as financial markets are expecting," Surya says. Capital Economics' base case continues to be for RBNZ to wait until October to raise rates. Also, Capital Economics still sees RBNZ's tightening cycle will be relatively shallow, with Official Cash Rate peaking at 3.25% in mid-2027. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2022 ET - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar as traders weigh mixed signals over the U.S.-Iran conflict. On the one hand, American forces started a new round of strikes against Iran at the Commander-in-Chief's direction, U.S. Central Command said in a post on social-media platform X. On the other hand, however, mediators were working Monday to push the U.S. and Iran into a new ceasefire. The U.S. dollar is little changed at 162.47 yen and is 0.1% higher at 1,477.50 won, while the Australian dollar is 0.1% higher at US$0.6999, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2020 ET - New Zealand inflation hit a two-year high in 2Q, in line with expectations, but the outcome is overwhelmingly an imported-energy story, says Sunny Nguyen, economist, Moody's Analytics. Beneath the spike, the domestic picture is more encouraging than the headline suggests, she adds. Non-tradable inflation eased to 3.4%, and core measures excluding food and energy held at 2.5%, showing little sign that the fuel shock is bleeding into other prices, Nguyen adds. The data affords patience for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, she says.(james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
2016 ET - Japanese stocks are higher in early trade, following recent selloffs in technology stocks. Energy companies and trading houses are leading the gains, partly due to expectations for higher oil prices amid the Iran conflict. Inpex is up 2.8% and Mitsubishi Corp. is 1.7% higher. The dollar is at 162.47 yen, compared with Y162.49 as of Monday 5 p.m. Eastern time. Investors are tracking developments in the Middle East after the U.S. military said Monday it launched a new round of strikes intended to further degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 0.4% at 64371.34. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
2009 ET - JGBs fall in the early Tokyo session, tracking overnight price declines in U.S. Treasurys. Both JGBs and Treasurys tend to move in tandem. JGB prices are also likely to be weighed by the recent rise in crude oil prices, which could lead to higher inflation in Japan and a quicker pace of BOJ rate increases. Meanwhile, ongoing net supply of JGBs remains high and Japanese economy is robust overall, Citi Research's Tomohisa Fujiki says in a recent research report. "We see no particular reason to aggressively buy bonds," the rates strategist adds. Ten-year JGB yield rises 2 bps to 2.725%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1948 ET - Japanese stocks may rise following recent selloffs in technology stocks. Nikkei futures open at 65155 on the SGX, up 340 points from Monday and up 1170 points from Friday. Japanese markets were closed Monday for a national holiday. The dollar is at 162.50 yen, compared with Y162.34 as of Friday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on developments in the Middle East after the U.S. military said Monday it launched a new round of strikes intended to further degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 4.0% to 64141.12 on Friday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
1937 ET - The pickup in price pressures across the New Zealand economy in 2Q wasn't particularly broad-based, with measures of core inflation still well behaved, says Abhijit Surya, economist at Capital Economics. So there's not a strong case for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike rates aggressively, he adds. The rise in the headline gauge can be pinned almost entirely on tradables inflation, which jumped from 2.5% to a three-year high of 4.9%, he says. Despite the ugly reading for headline inflation, the numbers won't instill a sense of urgency in the RBNZ to deliver back-to-back hikes, he adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1813 ET - The Canadian dollar weakened after President Trump's plan to impose a 50% tariff on a broad range of goods. The escalation in trade tension "threatens to damage the Canadian economy and add to the strain of an already vulnerable currency," says Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at forex firm Corpay. The 50% duty, he says, will apply regardless of whether they were previously exempted under USMCA's terms--removing a key protection for Canadian exporters. There are carve outs, such as energy, which Schamotta says should limit the macroeconomic blow. Along with the tariffs, the White House unveiled a series of measures aimed at building up aluminum-smelting capacity in the US, which Schamotta warns could hit Canada hard. Canada is America's top foreign supplier of the metal. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)
1805 ET - President Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on a wide range of Canadian goods could prompt the Bank of Canada to reconsider the need for rate cuts. Back in April, Gov. Tiff Macklem warned the central bank might need to cut rates should Washington escalate trade restrictions. In its latest economic outlook, published last week, the BOC projects a rebound in growth -- and one of the assumptions underpinning that forecast is that the average US tariff rate on Canadian goods remains at the 5% level. Trump's new trade gambit comes as BOC officials were of the view that firms are finally adjusting to the trade landscape. USDCAD is up marginally in trading after the White House released the new Canada tariff plan. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)
1559 ET - Treasurys fell sending yields higher in a quiet week for U.S. economic data and Fed speakers, with policymakers in a blackout period ahead of next Wednesday's interest-rate decision. U.S. leading economic indicators edged lower in June on weakening consumer spending, according to a report from The Conference Board. Meanwhile, the average price for a gallon of gasoline topped $4, according to AAA, following a recent surge in oil prices stemming from escalating military conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Brent crude futures briefly topped $90 a barrel this morning. The 10-year yield rose 0.055 percentage point to 4.597%. The two-year yield rose 0.042 percentage point to 4.214%. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1502 ET - CoinMarketCap's Fear and Greed index is drawing closer to neutral territory, which would be the first time since May the sentiment is that positive. CoinMarketCap assesses the score at 38 out-of 100, which is a reading slightly outside of the 40-60 range for neutral sentiment. Sentiment has been on a gradual improvement, gaining 12 percent since the early days of June. Bitcoin prices are trading up 1.5%, trading above the threshold of near-term resistance at up 1.4% to $65.1k. Ethereum are up 2.1% to over $1,900, and XRP climbs 1.8% to $1.11. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 20, 2026 20:46 ET (00:46 GMT)
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