Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting July 27.
A decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve will mark the focus of the coming week, where interest rates are expected to be left on hold but investors will watch for signals on when rates could rise given the recent surge in energy prices.
Interest-rate decisions are also due in Japan and the U.K., while investors will watch Chinese purchasing managers' indexes plus eurozone gross domestic product and inflation data.
Events in the Middle East will be firmly on investors' radar. Military attacks between Iran and the U.S. have intensified in recent days, causing oil prices to surge and bond yields to rise as inflation fears grow.
U.S.
The Federal Reserve announces a decision on Wednesday and is expected to leave the Fed funds rate on hold at 3.50%-3.75%.
Focus will be on the accompanying statement for any clues on whether rates are likely to rise by a quarter point at the subsequent meeting in September, with U.S. money markets fully pricing in this eventuality, LSEG data show.
Investors could be left disappointed, given that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has tended to shy away from forward guidance and favors short statements, ING analysts James Knightley and Chris Turner said in a note. The meeting also comes in the wake of recent weaker-than-forecast U.S. consumer-price and producer-price data as well as softer jobs figures, they said.
However, that shouldn't stop investors from anticipating a September rate hike, they said, especially given the recent surge in energy prices and concerns about the potential for AI-related demand to feed into inflation.
"We suspect that a brief FOMC statement and a press conference that once again avoids offering forward guidance will do little to challenge the market's increasingly firm expectations for a 25 basis-point hike in September."
Analysts at ABN Amro expect that rates will stay on hold through 2026, although for this to happen "tensions around Iran will need to ease materially in weeks rather than months," they said in a note.
Second-quarter GDP data are due Thursday, alongside the release of PCE inflation figures--the Fed's preferred measure of inflation--for June, and weekly jobless claims figures.
Other data include preliminary durable goods figures for June on Monday, and the Conference Board's consumer confidence reading for July on Tuesday.
The Treasury will auction $69 billion in two-year and $70 billion in five-year notes on Monday and $44 billion in seven-year notes on Tuesday.
Canada
Canadian gross domestic product data for May are due Friday.
The data will give a picture of how the country's economy was performing ahead of renewed hostilities in the Middle East and a jump higher in oil prices.
Canadian money markets currently price an 82% chance of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates by year-end, LSEG data show, largely as a result of higher energy costs.
However, U.S. President Trump's decision to impose 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods could slow economic activity and raise questions about rate-hike prospects.
Eurozone
First-estimate eurozone gross domestic product data for the second quarter on Thursday and flash estimate inflation data for July on Friday will give investors food for thought. They come after the European Central Bank left interest rates on hold at its recent meeting but kept the door open to a potential second rate hike in September following last month's rate increase.
"The decision [to hold rates] shows that the ECB aims to return inflation to target gradually rather than as quickly as possible," Stefan Gerlach, chief economist of EFG International, said in a note. "Inflation has exceeded 2% every year since 2021, yet the Governing Council is willing to tolerate a slow return to target rather than tighten policy aggressively."
First estimate GDP data for the past quarter are due from the eurozone's four largest economies--Germany, France, Italy and Spain--alongside for the eurozone as a whole, on Thursday. On the same day, flash estimate Spanish and German inflation data for July are released.
The European Commission will release business and consumer sentiment surveys on Thursday, while eurozone unemployment data for June are also due.
Italian consumer and business surveys for July will be published Friday, alongside French, Italian and eurozone flash estimate inflation data for July.
On Monday, Germany's closely-watched Ifo business climate index for July is scheduled for release, followed by the ECB's M3 money supply data for June.
Belgium will hold a bond auction Monday, the Netherlands on Tuesday, while Germany will sell August 2036 Bunds on Wednesday. Italy will hold its end-of-month auctions for short-dated BTPs and linkers on Tuesday, and for medium- to long-dated BTPs and floating rate notes on Thursday.
U.K.
The Bank of England's monetary policy decision on Thursday is the U.K.'s main event in the coming week.
The BOE is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, with potentially seven members voting in favor while two members could vote for a rate increase.
Due to the high global energy prices, the BOE will likely keep the door open for an interest-rate rise at a future meeting, Bank of America economists said in a note.
Investors will also look out for the BOE's review of the impact of its quantitative tightening program. This program is the process through which the BOE unwinds its gilt holdings which were acquired during previous periods of quantitative easing.
Any signals of a slower quantitative tightening pace or a further skew away from selling long-dated bonds would likely support U.K. government bonds, Bank of America strategists said in a note.
British Retail Consortium's July shop price index is released Tuesday.
The Bank of England Money and Credit report for June, which reveals a combination of consumer lending, mortgage lending and mortgage approvals for that month, is due on Wednesday.
The U.K. plans to conduct sales by programmatic tenders of the 0.125% 2028 gilt and the 4.125% 2040 gilt on Tuesday.
Japan
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to leave monetary policy unchanged at its two-day meeting ending Friday, as policymakers assess the effects of its latest rate increase, which brought the policy rate to 1%. The central bank is also set to issue updated forecasts for inflation and economic growth.
"The key focus will be whether the BOJ signals an intention to adjust the pace of policy normalization in response to changes in its economic and inflation outlook," J.P.Morgan's Ayako Fujita said in a research report. "This will be assessed by comparing the Outlook Report's projections with the tone of the policy statement and Governor Ueda's press conference. We continue to expect the next rate hike to come in October."
A slew of economic data is due before Friday's BOJ decision, including Tokyo consumer inflation for July and industrial production, retail sales and employment figures for June.
The BOJ is scheduled Wednesday to make outright purchases in three segments of the Japanese government-bond market: securities with maturities of more than three years and up to five years, those with maturities of more than 25 years, and inflation-indexed bonds. The purchases could provide support to the domestic bond market.
The Ministry of Finance is scheduled Thursday to auction about 2.8 trillion yen of two-year government notes. Investors may take a wait-and-see approach because the sale falls on the first day of the BOJ's two-day meeting.
China
China faces a quieter week, though investors will closely watch July purchasing managers' indexes due Friday for fresh insight into business sentiment in the world's second-largest economy. Companies continue to contend with conflict in the Middle East, persistent trade tensions and rapid advances in artificial intelligence.
ANZ Research expects the official manufacturing PMI to fall to 49.9 from 50.3 in June. Senior rates strategist Jennifer Kusuma said the projected decline reflects a correction in major commodity prices earlier this month, which slowed raw-material restocking and weighed on business sentiment and the outlook for corporate profits. ANZ expects the nonmanufacturing PMI to edge down to 50.0 from 50.2, citing adverse summer weather that constrained services and construction activity.
China is also set to release industrial-profit data Monday, offering a midyear view of the intense competition and prolonged price wars squeezing corporate earnings. Those pressures have prompted companies to increase exports and expand overseas in recent years.
Australia/New Zealand
The week ahead in Australia will focus on the release of June inflation data on Wednesday.
Monthly inflation is likely to have remained around 4.0% on-year, with a sharp fall in fuel prices likely offset by a solid increase for new dwelling costs, rents and holiday travel, according to economists.
Core trimmed mean inflation appears likely to remain well above the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2% to 3% target band at around 3.7%, which will leave the door open to another RBA interest rate hike in August.
There's an active debate about whether the RBA will need to tighten monetary policy further, and the data is likely to have a big impact on the outcome of the next policy meeting in August.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock will speak on Tuesday and the bank's chief economist Sarah Hunter will speak on Thursday. Both the talks could be used to set up expectations about interest rates ahead of August.
South Korea
South Korea is likely to post another month of strong semiconductor-led export growth in July when it releases trade data on Saturday.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
July 24, 2026 10:55 ET (14:55 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments