The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0913 GMT - Japan could struggle to curtail the yen's depreciation against the dollar due to the U.S.-Iran conflict, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. President Trump told Axios Thursday that he is close to deciding whether to launch a "massive attack" against Iran on a scale that is "bigger than ever before." A large attack that lifts oil prices even higher could increase market pricing for an interest-rate rise by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, Halpenny says. "That will ensure Japan remains constrained by what they can do to curtail dollar/yen moving further higher." The dollar falls 0.1% to 163.71 yen, having reached a 40-year high of 163.98 on Thursday, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0911 GMT - Sterling and U.K. government bonds show little reaction to a stronger-than-expected U.K. purchasing managers' survey as investors focus on the U.S.-Iran conflict. The composite PMI measure of business activity rose to 52.1 in July, exceeding the 49.8 consensus in a WSJ survey. The Middle East conflict has flared up in recent days, lifting oil prices. A sustained cooling in prices and improvement in business confidence is "by no means assured," S&P's Chris Williamson says in the survey's press release. Sterling rises 0.1% to $1.3324 while the euro trades flat at 0.8541 pounds, little changed from before the data. The 10-year gilt yield falls 5.1 basis points to 5.060%, Tradeweb data show, as oil prices fall from high levels. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0904 GMT - The latest jump in oil prices following an escalating conflict in the Middle East is likely to be short-lived, Julius Baer's Norbert Rücker says in a note. Despite fresh attacks on tankers in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, the renewed fighting appears to reflect efforts by the parties to strengthen their bargaining positions ahead of another round of negotiations. "None of the involved conflict parties have an interest in the situation getting out of hand," Rücker says, adding that conditions underpinning the early summer truce are unchanged. With the pledged government oil releases only partially done and global oil overall less depleted than initially expected, the market still has a buffer if supply disruptions persist, Julius Baer says. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
0847 GMT - Spanish energy major Repsol's second-quarter results exceed elevated expectations, UBS analyst Henri Patricot writes. The company is fully capturing extremely high refining margins and the third quarter could be even better, he adds. Margins are at record levels and the company has no planned maintenance, enabling it to fully benefit, he says. The bank increases the stock's target price to 26 euros from 23 euros and increases its 2026 buyback forecast to 1.1 billion euros from 1 billion euros. Shares fall 2.5% to 26.01 euros.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0833 GMT - The cost of default protection for European financial credit remains fairly high as geopolitical concerns and AI jitters weigh on market sentiment. Investors are concerned about the continuing Middle East conflict as well as huge spending plans by AI companies. The iTraxx Europe Senior Financials index of senior financial credit trades steady at 58 basis points, a 2-month high, after rising to that level on Thursday, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0829 GMT - The euro stays slightly higher against the dollar while eurozone government bond yields remain lower after the July eurozone purchasing managers' survey exceeded expectations. The eurozone composite purchasing managers' index rose to 51.9 in July from 50.0 in June, above the 50.2 forecast by economists in a WSJ survey. High oil prices could weigh on economic activity going forward, however. "July is seeing a welcome revival of economic activity in the eurozone, but a volatile geopolitical environment means it remains to be seen if the good news can last," S&P economist Chris Williamson says in the survey's press release. The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1387. The 10-year German bund yield falls 1.4 basis points to 3.195%, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0811 GMT - The euro and sterling could fall if energy prices continue rising markedly, with the risk of a further escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. The rise in natural gas prices impacts household incomes which can feed through into weaker consumer spending and growth, he says.While expectations for interest-rates rises are becoming more aligned between the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, investors are likely to see the U.S. economy being better able to manage potential tightening, he says. The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1393 after reaching a three-week low of $1.1363 on Thursday, LSEG data show. Sterling rises 0.1% after hitting a three-week low of $1.3296 Thursday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0800 GMT - U.K. retail spending could decelerate in the second half of the year as inflation is expected to hurt spending, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Rob Wood says in a note. U.K. retail sales data shows monthly sales increased by 1.0% in June, stronger than the consensus forecast of a 0.1% contraction by economists in a WSJ poll. U.K. inflation is projected to rise in the second half, eroding households' real income growth and affecting consumer spending, Wood says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0751 GMT - The oil market is increasingly focused on the resilience of physical crude flows rather than whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Rystad Energy says. While supply disruptions since March have been absorbed through inventory drawdowns, alternative export routes and spare production capacity are diminishing, leaving the market more exposed to prolonged outages. "The direction of prices will ultimately depend on three factors: whether crude flows into Asia can be maintained, whether refiners can adapt to a changing mix of crude grades and how geopolitical developments unfold," says Janiv Shah, VP of commodity markets. Rystad's base case is an interim deal that restores trade but stops short of resolving the nuclear issue or curbing Iran's maritime leverage. Markets would still price in a geopolitical-risk premium while Gulf oil inventories are cleared, export operations recover and confidence in shipping routes is rebuilt. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0744 GMT - Anglo American's share price rise was triggered by Teck Resources' beat to consensus expectations, Berenberg analysts write. The two companies are combining to create one of the world's largest miners. While Anglo American's operational performance was decent, its 2.9% share increase on Thursday was more driven by Teck's earnings, they say. Significantly, Teck showcased another quarter of operational progress at the historically problematic Quebrada Blanca mine, the analysts say. Teck's management also made encouraging comments on Chinese regulatory approval for the deal, and said the merger is set to complete between September 2026 and March 2027, they add. Shares rise 2.6% to 3,725 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0734 GMT - China is likely able to draw down its crude inventories and sustain historically low import levels for several more months, possibly into 2027, Capital Economics says in a note. Economist Hamad Hussain says the sharp decline in China's crude imports has been a key factor capping global oil prices. He argues the drop reflects the end of China's streak of oil stockpiling, rather than weaker end-user demand from long-term trends such as rising EV adoption. However, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for much longer, oil markets are still likely to reach a tipping point in the coming months, potentially pushing crude prices to $120 a barrel or higher. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
0727 GMT - The recent re-escalation of the Middle East conflict could transform the energy supply disruption from a crude-routing problem to a broader supply-chain crisis, ANZ commodity strategists say in a research note. The oil market has avoided a more disorderly price response so far because of several buffers, including China's sharp reduction in crude imports, they say. However, the latest strikes raise concerns about whether these buffers can effectively keep the world supplied with oil, as a disruption to the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb shipping would undermine one of the market's most important workarounds, they note. ANZ maintains its end-Q3 2026 Brent crude forecast of $92 per barrel, but warns if regional supply disruptions intensify, Brent could rise towards $120 a barrel. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 24, 2026 05:13 ET (09:13 GMT)
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