The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1930 ET - StatsNZ will start printing monthly CPI from July 2027, meeting demand in markets and the broader public for better inflation data. It will go a long way to helping the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make improved policy calls, especially against a backdrop of continuing geopolitical shocks. The RBNZ has been pretty heavy handed over many years when moving to squeeze prices pressure from the economy. The result has been recession and high unemployment. Better data visibility will bring better choices. The monthly CPI will be introduced alongside quarterly CPI, rather than immediately replacing it. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1837 ET - Australian job ads extended a lengthening decline in June, falling 0.9% from May, according to data from employment portal SEEK. The decline has now extended for eleven months. Applications per job ad grew 2.0% on-month and are now at their highest level on record, the data shows. Blair Chapman, SEEK's chief economist, says hiring conditions are subdued, adding that the labor market is in transition away from sectors that thrived in the post-pandemic rebound, and toward industries underpinned by long-term investment in infrastructure. The softness of the SEEK report underscores risks to the job market going forward. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1647 ET - The premier of Canada's Pacific-coast province of British Columbia says PM Mark Carney should give the U.S. an ultimatum in trade talks ahead of the threat of a 50% tariff on certain goods. David Eby says U.S. can't "on one hand attack one group of families and workers, while hoping to get access" to Canada's rare earths. "The U.S. needs to make up its mind," says Eby at a press conference with his provincial counterparts. He adds Carney must demand whether the U.S. wants to be a strong partner with Canada. If the U.S. doesn't want that, Eby adds, "then we need to be looking to the rest of the world" to deepen economic ties. British Columbia is Canada's third-most populous province and fourth-largest by GDP. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1644 ET - Inflation likely slowed modestly in the first half of July with help from lower agricultural prices, while core inflation is seen holding steady. The consumer price index is expected to have risen 0.07% in the first two weeks of the month, lowering the 12-month rate to 3.10% from 3.18% in the second half of June, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts. Core CPI, which excludes energy and fresh food items, is seen rising 0.16% for an annual rate of 3.95%, little changed form 3.94% in 2H June. Statistics institute Inegi is scheduled to release mid-July inflation data on Thursday. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
The 2-year yield rose to 4.301%, the highest yield since February 2025. "2-Year Treasury Yield Highest In Over a Year -- Market Talk," at 3:59 p.m. ET incorrectly said the 2-year yield rose to 4.301%, the highest yield since February 2026 last year.
1559 ET - Oil prices rose and the 2-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level in over a year exactly one week before the Federal Reserve releases its latest decision on interest rates. Brent crude traded more than $20 above its early-July lows as tensions escalated between the U.S. and Iran. Gasoline prices reached above $4 a gallon, raising inflation concerns. The 2-year yield rose to 4.301%, the highest yield since February 2025 last year. The 10-year yield rose to 4.657%, the second highest level this year. Markets could get more clarity after July's interest rate meeting, as the Fed announced Chairman Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference next week following the meeting as usual. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com) Corrections & Amplifications
This item was corrected at 4:15 p.m. ET to show that the 2-year yield rose to 4.301%, the highest yield since February 2025, not February 2026.
1506 ET - Bitcoin is down 0.8% to $65,884 -- hitting resistance at $66k to $68k and potentially unwinding further, says analysts with Bitfinex in a note. That's because spot trading volume is light meaning that there's little underpinning the current rally. "The recovery appears to be driven primarily by derivatives positioning and a lack of sellers rather than an influx of fresh capital," says Bitfinex. Data from Deribit shows a spike in calls around $70k to $72k, the majority dated for July 31. Light volumes could result in extreme choppiness in reaction to some sort of event, says Bitfinex. "A market that climbs on thin participation can travel quickly in either direction, because there is little resting liquidity to absorb a shift in flow," the firm says. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1446 ET - The Federal Reserve announced that Chairman Kevin Warsh will hold a 2:30pm ET press conference next Wednesday following the committee's July interest-rate meeting. Warsh has initiated several task forces at the Fed, including a communications task force. That task force will review how the central bank conveys policy decisions during economic uncertainty, with more on its findings to come. The announcement of the press conference suggests that the chairman's communication following the meeting will continue, at least in the interim. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1349 ET - Only 10% of investors expect rates to remain steady at the current target range of 3.50-3.75% by year's end, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Ahead of the committee's July meeting next week and amid a quiet period for U.S. economic indicators, markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady. The 10-year yield rises to 4.654%. A surge in oil prices on renewed hostilities in the Middle East, pushes gas prices at the pump above $4 a gallon.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1335 ET - Oxford Economics is the latest forecasting firm to play down the economic impact for Canada from President Trump's plan to impose a 50% tariff on a range of Canadian-made goods. The 50% tariff targets a select group of goods. Should they be implemented as planned on Aug. 19, the impact would shave about 0.2 percentage points from Canada's level of GDP in 2027, Oxford says. Further, the tariff could reduce growth next year by up to 0.2 percentage points, through weaker exports and business investment. "The targeted nature of the tariffs means the biggest impacts would be at the sectoral and regional level," Oxford says. The firm projects Canada-based plastics, electrical machinery, forest products and beverage companies to be most affected. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1147 ET - Investors question if the rules for bitcoin have changed, says Zach Pandl with Grayscale in a note Wednesday. There's two ways to evaluate how bitcoin has moved, he says. One is using the so-called "four-year cycle" -- a pattern persistent since the early days of bitcoin- where prices typically rise ahead of and after bitcoin experiences a "halving". A "halving" is when rewards from a mined bitcoin block are cut in half from their prior amount. The last halving happened in 2024, reducing the reward per mined block to 3.125 BTC. Pandl notes that bitcoin may not be moving along that cycle anymore, instead moving more like a typical asset. "If macro factors are in the driver's seat, bitcoin's price could bottom when these macro factors turn around," says Pandl. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1050 ET - Yields on U.K. 10-year government bonds, or gilts, rise to a two-month high due to concerns about the potential impact of the Middle East conflict as well as uncertainty surrounding domestic fiscal policy. Investors worry that rising oil prices could push up inflation and cause the Bank of England to increase interest rates in the coming months. Uncertainty around fiscal policy under a new U.K. government is also causing investors to price in a risk premium into gilts. Ten-year gilt yields rise around 3 basis points to a two-month high of 5.065%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 22, 2026 19:30 ET (23:30 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments