Wall Street wants to see whether Tesla can deliver on its robotaxi and Optimus plans
Tesla's Optimus robot has captured the interest of investors.
Tesla's earnings reports have increasingly been more about big themes than about the numbers themselves.
The carmaker already disclosed that it delivered 480,126 electric vehicles to customers between April and June, with those numbers coming in well ahead of expectations. Tesla also deployed 13.5 gigawatts of energy-storage products, below expectations but an improvement over the previous quarter.
That sets up Tesla for a "solid quarter" when it reports financial results on Wednesday afternoon, according to Morgan Stanley's Andrew Percoco. But in his view, "the key investor debate remains unchanged: Can Robotaxi and Optimus progress quickly enough to justify an accelerating AI investment cycle?"
He titled his note to clients: "Show us the bots."
This year is set to be Tesla's most expensive to date, with about $25 billion in capital expenditures planned. Some of that will be spent on the robotaxis and humanoid robots that underpin Tesla's valuation, although progress has been slower than expected.
Tesla on Tuesday announced that it would offer robotaxi services in Tampa and Orlando, after expanding to Miami earlier in July, although its service is for now limited to small sections of those new cities. In total, Tesla now provides rideshare trips in seven cities, offering unsupervised rides in at least three of them. It's unclear whether unsupervised trips are being offered in the Florida locations.
Tesla had initially aimed to add a total of five new cities by the end of June, and CEO Elon Musk has said he wants to expand from three states to "probably a dozen states" by the end of the year. Of the company's named targets for the first half of 2026, only Las Vegas and Phoenix are not yet home to Tesla's robotaxi network, which mostly relies on Model Y SUVs.
As for Optimus, Tesla's humanoid robot, investors haven't seen much of the company's new model designed for mass production. Musk pushed back its unveiling in April, citing concerns that rivals could copy the design.
He said that version could be unveiled in the "middle of this year," likely meaning that Tesla won't be able to ship the robots to third-party customers in the second half of 2026 as he had earlier forecast. Cantor Fitzgerald's Andres Sheppard now sees initial commercial deliveries in the third quarter of 2027.
Tesla's stock has fallen 17% on a year-to-date basis.
Also of interest to Wall Street is what Tesla can offer regarding its relationship with SpaceX $(SPCX)$. There have been speculations for months about a merger between the two Musk-led companies, which already collaborate on some projects.
"We think investors are looking at the high possibility of Tesla combining with SpaceX in the near future (next 1-2 years) and what this move could do to the Tesla stock," Deutsche Bank's Edison Yu said in a note. "We suspect this topic could get air time during the upcoming earnings call."
A merger would likely face some opposition. J.P. Morgan has said there could be regulatory issues and national-security concerns tied to Tesla's close relationship with China. BNP Paribas analyst James Picariello also said he would be worried about the companies' likely high cash burn.
"While we have little concern the combined entity would be able to raise additional capital if/when needed, it most certainly would further dilute current [Tesla] shareholders," Picariello, who rates Tesla's stock at underperform, said in a note to clients. SpaceX last raised cash through a bond sale in June, shortly after its initial public offering.
From a financial perspective, Tesla is expected to report second-quarter revenue of $26.4 billion and net income of $1.8 billion, according to analyst estimates compiled by FactSet. That would translate to year-over-year improvements of 17% and 30%, respectively. Analysts also forecast earnings per share of 53 cents, up from 40 cents a year earlier.
Also of interest to Wall Street are automotive gross margins excluding credits, a measure of the health of Tesla's core vehicle business. Yu expects margins of 18%, down from 19.2% in the prior quarter, citing strong sales offset by promotions. Yu rates Tesla at buy with a $465 price target.
-William Gavin
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 21, 2026 10:32 ET (14:32 GMT)
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