A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of July 20-24 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.
GRAINS & OILSEEDS: Higher oil prices supported grains into the beginning of the week, and investors will watch for further escalation between the U.S. and Iran after two American servicemembers were killed and another was presumed dead after weekend strikes.
Elevated oil levels typically boost agriculture markets, though some investors fear that higher energy costs will fuel inflation and make a Federal Reserve rate hike more likely--a development that would be negative for prices in the sector. The week ahead is light on macroeconomic data after last week's softer-than-expected inflation prints, which will help to keep the Middle East situation in focus.
Weather concerns are weighing on crop outlooks. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sees an 81% chance of a very strong El Nino weather event by the end of 2026. The greatest impact is expected in the Asia-Pacific regions growing rice, wheat, sugar and palm oil, ING strategists Warren Patterson and Thijs Geijer wrote.
Despite the risks posed by El Nino to some crops, the weather system can benefit others, in particular soybeans. More broadly, technological developments mean that crops are less vulnerable to El Nino, and despite big swings at a national level, food prices shouldn't be significantly impacted, the strategists wrote.
Speculative investors bought into commodities across the agricultural complex last week, as investors closed out their bets against soybeans and Chicago wheat, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report.
Wheat futures slipped 0.9% in Chicago to $6.77 a bushel in European afternoon trade Monday, while corn futures rose 1.4% to $4.74 a bushel. Soybean contracts rose 2.1% to $12.28 a bushel.
SOFT COMMODITIES:
Brazilian weather will remain front of mind for coffee traders after heavy rainfall damaged crops in Sao Paulo state. Forecasts are for mostly dry weather through Wednesday, with isolated showers in the south between Thursday and Friday. Coffee prices rose 1% to $3.23 a pound, holding broadly steady on last week's prices.
Cocoa prices were flat Monday, holding at $5,519 a metric ton in New York. Rain in Ghana and the Ivory Coast should support tree growth.
Sugar contracts edged 0.1% lower to 14.82 cents a pound. Sugar is especially exposed to a strong El Nino because its key supply regions in India, Thailand and Brazil stand to be significantly impacted, JPMorgan analysts wrote.
Write to Joe Stonor at josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 20, 2026 12:38 ET (16:38 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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