The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1147 ET - Investors question if the rules for bitcoin have changed, says Zach Pandl with Grayscale in a note Wednesday. There's two ways to evaluate how bitcoin has moved, he says. One is using the so-called "four-year cycle" -- a pattern persistent since the early days of bitcoin- where prices typically rise ahead of and after bitcoin experiences a "halving". A "halving" is when rewards from a mined bitcoin block are cut in half from their prior amount. The last halving happened in 2024, reducing the reward per mined block to 3.125 BTC. Pandl notes that bitcoin may not be moving along that cycle anymore, instead moving more like a typical asset. "If macro factors are in the driver's seat, bitcoin's price could bottom when these macro factors turn around," says Pandl. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1050 ET - Yields on U.K. 10-year government bonds, or gilts, rise to a two-month high due to concerns about the potential impact of the Middle East conflict as well as uncertainty surrounding domestic fiscal policy. Investors worry that rising oil prices could push up inflation and cause the Bank of England to increase interest rates in the coming months. Uncertainty around fiscal policy under a new U.K. government is also causing investors to price in a risk premium into gilts. Ten-year gilt yields rise around 3 basis points to a two-month high of 5.065%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1045 ET - The Bank of England could cut sales of long-term U.K. government bonds, or gilts, under its quantitative tightening program, TD Securities' Pooja Kumra says in a note. Quantitative tightening is the process in which the BOE reduces bond holdings acquired during previous periods of quantitative easing. The size of the BOE's long-dated gilt assets has declined due to the gilt sales program, which began in 2022. The BOE could reduce long-term gilt sales starting October to reflect the limited stock of these bonds remaining on the BOE's balance sheet, Kumra says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1036 ET - Bitcoin is down 1.2% to $65,613, after climbing over $66,000 for the first time since early June yesterday. Inflows continue to be seen for bitcoin ETFs, according to data from CoinGlass -- with $203.2 million in inflows in those ETFs yesterday. That makes it six straight days that bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows, which is encouraging after weeks of net outflows. But the amount of money that's come back to ETFs isn't meaningfully changing the fundamental outlook for bitcoin, says Li Xing of Exness in a note. "The recovery remains modest in a broader context, with July's inflows still well below the combined $6.9 billion of net outflows recorded during May and June," says Xing. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1035 ET - Any interventions from Japanese authorities to shore up the yen are unlikely to have a lasting impact until the market becomes more confident in Japan's fundamentals, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. For the yen to strengthen in coming months, further reassurances on fiscal policy will be needed and the Bank of Japan will have to signal a faster pace of interest-rate rises, she says. Many market participants are worried about expansionary fiscal policy and the BOJ's slow pace of tightening, she says. Rabobank expects the dollar to fall to 159 yen within three months, from 163.05 currently, if the BOJ signals more aggressive tightening and the Federal Reserve sounds cautious about raising rates. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1030 ET - Bank of Nova Scotia sticks to its call for Bank of Canada rate increases later this year despite the threat of new U.S. tariffs. Economist Derek Holt says the threat of 50% tariffs likely represents a negotiating ploy -- something that USTR Jamieson Greer hinted at in remarks to CNBC. Holt reckons Trump may want a USMCA deal before the midterms because "he needs some wins" given fallout from Iran war and affordability. Further, Holt says Canada has shock observers to withstand this latest trade hit. First, a weaker Canadian dollar would buoy exports; and elevated commodity prices stemming from the war in Iran, which will lift national income. Holt adds risks are building that firms eventually pass on the higher fuel costs to stop profit-margin deterioration. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1009 ET - More than half--53%--of U.S. residents oppose the construction of an AI data center in their neighborhood, Redfin says. Roughly one-third, or 34%, support it. AI data centers are controversial largely because they reportedly strain electricity and water resources, which can push up energy costs and spark environmental concerns. They can also disrupt communities with noise and large, industrial-looking structures. For some people, AI data centers also represent broader fears about AI: 58% of U.S. residents believe that advances in AI will eliminate jobs and make it harder to afford homes. Real-estate agents say concerns about nearby data centers are becoming increasingly common among homebuyers. Older generations are more likely to oppose data centers in their area. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
1002 ET - HSBC sees value in long-dated U.S. inflation-protected Treasurys, or TIPS, strategist Dhiraj Narula says in a note. Yields on TIPS are now at multi-decade highs. "The surge in real rates in recent weeks notably contrasts with the collapse in inflation breakeven spreads, which have remained low despite the uptick in oil prices amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East," the strategist says. The key reason for this is the more decisive messaging on price stability from several Federal Reserve members, emphasising a commitment to the 2% inflation target, he says. HSBC maintains a neutral duration--a measure of a bond's sensitivity to interest-rate changes--position on nominal U.S. Treasurys. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0941 ET - Sterling falls to a one-week low against the dollar and the euro as investors weigh U.K. fiscal uncertainty, lower-than-expected inflation data for the country and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. New U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced a cap on bus fares across England and VAT cuts on electricity bills. This points to a government willing to use fiscal space early, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. Data earlier showed U.K. inflation eased more than forecast to 2.6% in June, dampening interest rate rise expectations. President Trump warned of further military strikes against Iran on his Truth Social platform Wednesday. Sterling falls to as low as $1.3352 and the euro rises to as high as 0.8539 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0920 ET - HSBC retains its end-2026 forecast for the 10-year German Bund yield at 2.80%, strategist Chris Attfield says in a note. The current level is 3.185%, according to LSEG. Ten-year Bund yields are more likely to track moves in two-year German debt than in 10-year U.S. Treasurys, he says. As such, European Central Bank policy will be crucial for this expectation of lower 10-year German yields, "although yields will doubtless continue to be buffeted by developments in the Middle East," Attfield says. "In our view the curve will continue to be driven from the short end in the coming month." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0918 ET - U.K. government bond yields, or gilt yields, price in a lot of political risk compared to their developed market peers, Invesco's Graham Hook and Benjamin Jones say in a note. That risk premium could narrow if the government delivers credible fiscal plans and growth commitments at this year's budget, they say. Ten-year gilt yields hit a two-month high of 5.064% due to geopolitical jitters and domestic concerns, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0859 ET - Fairly limited net supply of long-term U.K. government bonds, or gilts, by the Debt Management Office could be supportive for long-dated gilts, TD Securities Pooja Kumra says in a note. Any weakness in long-maturity gilts would be an opportunity to add exposure to the 15-year to 20-year sector, Kumra says. U.K. 30-year gilt yields are last up 1.8 basis points at 5.760%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 22, 2026 11:47 ET (15:47 GMT)
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