The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0849 ET - Retail, leisure sectors and pubs would benefit from Andy Burnham's plan to reduce cost of living pressures on households as this would likely boost consumer spending, AJ Bell's Dan Coatsworth writes. "There is talk that Burnham will slash business rates for pubs, clubs, and music venues by 20%. That would be Christmas come early," Coatsworth adds. (ian.walker@wsj.com)
0848 ET - The dollar could remain little affected by the latest bout of U.S. trade uncertainty in the near term, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. President Trump's plans for new tariffs should broadly replicate the Section 122 tariffs which are due to expire on Friday, meaning the currency implications should be limited, he says. Moreover, it comes at a time when markets are pricing in U.S. interest-rate rises and Middle East risks are higher, providing some support to the dollar, he says. However, if trade uncertainty becomes more pronounced, dollar selling could re-emerge as investors become more concerned over unpredictable policies and the damage to the U.S. economy, he says. The DXY dollar index trades flat at 101.135. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0833 ET - Little evidence of indirect energy effects in the U.K's inflation print suggests the Bank of England will keep rates on hold next week and likely beyond, HSBC economist Chris Hare says in a note. Inflation fell to 2.6% in June from 2.8% in May, driven by motor-fuel prices and particularly diesel, although core inflation held steady at 2.6%, above consensus expectations. The first evidence of indirect energy effects would come into food inflation, which eased, and there is no evidence of higher wages and price setting emerging so far, he says. However, for the BOE, higher oil-and-gas prices in recent weeks pose additional upside risks to the inflation outlook, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0801 ET - The Japanese yen could stay weak as authorities show less urgency for currency interventions and inflationary risks remain elevated, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said authorities would take action to curb the yen's depreciation "should the need arise." This adds to signs of Japan's "reluctant acceptance of allowing the yen to weaken as long as the pace of the move is gradual," he says. Meanwhile, inflation could rise further, leaving the yen vulnerable to worries the Bank of Japan isn't doing enough to combat price pressures, he says. The dollar falls 0.1% to 162.99 yen after reaching a 40-year high of 163.23 Tuesday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0757 ET - The new U.K. treasury chief John Healey looks like he could deliver significant reforms in the welfare sector based on his past comments, Invesco's Graham Hook and Benjamin Jones say in a note. U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has indicated a willingness to address rising costs and Healey could favor cutting welfare spending, they say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0724 ET - Uncertainty around the U.K.'s fiscal policy has added around 20 basis points to U.K. government bond yields, or gilt yields, UBS Investment Bank economist Arend Kapteyn says in a note. If the government maintains its fiscal rules at this year's autumn budget as it pledged, U.K. government bonds could rally, with yields dropping by at least 20bps, Kapteyn says. "If the rules are changed, however, the risk premium could rise materially." Ten-year gilt yields are up 1.6bps to last trade at 5.044%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0609 ET - Infrastructure debt continues to be a reliable source of stable, defensive income, Schroders Capital CIO Nils Rode says in a note. "It represents a compelling allocation within private credit and real assets portfolios, delivering income that diversifies overall corporate exposure," he says. Infrastructure debt benefits from structural tailwinds. The global need for investment across energy, digital, transport and social infrastructure is expanding, alongside demand for financing options to meet ambitious spending and development plans, Rode says. Infrastructure debt is also "one of the most effective ways" to combine a stable yield with a defensive asset that provides protection during market selloffs. Junior infrastructure debt now offers double-digit returns for investors seeking higher returns, Rode adds. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0559 ET - Investors are increasingly assessing opportunities across the entire investment universe to achieve their specific objectives, rather than viewing public and private markets as separate allocation decisions, Schroders Capital CIO Nils Rode says in a note. This is one of the findings of Schroders' latest Global Investor Insights Survey, reflecting the views of more than 1,000 investors and intermediaries with combined assets under management of around $72 trillion. "Specifically, approximately half of investors say they now assess opportunities across public and private equity and credit markets together rather than through separate allocation frameworks," he says. Strategies across the public-private continuum are used to achieve specific portfolio goals, Rode says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0556 ET - The euro rises against the dollar as higher oil prices prompt investors to price in more aggressive interest-rate increases compared to the Federal Reserve, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. However, it's hard to see the market pricing in even higher European Central Bank rates, regardless of the language delivered at Thursday's policy decision and press conference, he says. "Barring a near-term move towards another ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, our bias remains for the euro drift back to $1.1380 and then take its cue from tomorrow's ECB meeting." The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1408. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0540 ET - U.S. Treasury yields trade steady on the day, with the 10-year yield close to an earlier two-month high, while the dollar is marginally lower. Investors remain cautious as oil prices rise and Middle East tensions continue, leaving a risk that yields and the dollar could rise. "The pullback [in the U.S. dollar] could prove limited, however, as Treasury yields remain at elevated levels and geopolitical tensions could continue to fuel safe-haven demand," DHF Capital S.A's Bas Kooijman says in a note. Brent crude rises 3.5% to $94.19. The 10-year Treasury yield is last up 0.2 basis points at 4.630%, having earlier hit a high of 4.642%, according to Tradeweb. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 101.102, having hit a one-week high of 101.210 overnight. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0511 ET - The cost of insuring euro-denominated credit against default climbs as investors take precaution due to the ongoing U.S.-Iran war. The Middle East conflict is driving up oil prices, raising inflation risk and increasing the prospects of major central banks hiking interest rates in the coming months. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps rises 1 basis point to 257bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0509 ET - U.K. politics should remain in focus for sterling traders as this week's inflation and jobs data do little to shift the outlook for the Bank of England, Monex Europe analysts say in a note. The BOE is likely to leave rates unchanged on July 30, they say. Attention therefore remains on politics as newly-appointed Prime Minister Andy Burnham plans to reduce the cost of living and has said he'll seek flexibility within the fiscal rules. "We retain a modest downside bias [for sterling] pending budget detail." Sterling trades flat at $1.3374 while the euro rises 0.1% to 0.8526 pounds, showing a limited reaction to Wednesday's lower-than-expected headline inflation data for June. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 22, 2026 08:50 ET (12:50 GMT)
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