The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0800 GMT - U.K. retail spending could decelerate in the second half of the year as inflation is expected to hurt spending, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Rob Wood says in a note. U.K. retail sales data shows monthly sales increased by 1.0% in June, stronger than the consensus forecast of a 0.1% contraction by economists in a WSJ poll. U.K. inflation is projected to rise in the second half, eroding households' real income growth and affecting consumer spending, Wood says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0738 GMT - Gold prices are back below $4,100 as higher real yields and rate-hike bets weigh on the non-yielding metal's appeal. In early trading, New York futures are up 0.05% to $4,052.40 a troy ounce, leaving prices on track for a modest weekly gain after a rebound earlier this week. The market's main focus remains on monetary policy, as higher interest rates reduce bullion's appeal. "The benign June price data brought the Fed some more time to gauge how inflation evolves over the coming months," says Thomas Ryan from Capital Economics. "If inflation pressures remain as persistent as we expect, the Fed will begin tightening policy with a 25-basis-point hike in September, a move now fully priced into markets following the rebound in WTI to more than $90 a barrel." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0734 GMT - China is likely able to draw down its crude inventories and sustain historically low import levels for several more months, possibly into 2027, Capital Economics says in a note. Economist Hamad Hussain says the sharp decline in China's crude imports has been a key factor capping global oil prices. He argues the drop reflects the end of China's streak of oil stockpiling, rather than weaker end-user demand from long-term trends such as rising EV adoption. However, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for much longer, oil markets are still likely to reach a tipping point in the coming months, potentially pushing crude prices to $120 a barrel or higher. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
0727 GMT - The recent re-escalation of the Middle East conflict could transform the energy supply disruption from a crude-routing problem to a broader supply-chain crisis, ANZ commodity strategists say in a research note. The oil market has avoided a more disorderly price response so far because of several buffers, including China's sharp reduction in crude imports, they say. However, the latest strikes raise concerns about whether these buffers can effectively keep the world supplied with oil, as a disruption to the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb shipping would undermine one of the market's most important workarounds, they note. ANZ maintains its end-Q3 2026 Brent crude forecast of $92 per barrel, but warns if regional supply disruptions intensify, Brent could rise towards $120 a barrel. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0721 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, decline slightly as oil prices stabilize, reversing Thursday's rise when 10-year gilt yields hit a 2-month high of 5.122%. U.K. retail sales data for June were better than expected, with monthly sales rising by 1.0%, better than the consensus forecast for a 0.1% contraction by economists in a WSJ survey. The data show that "households remain willing to run down their high saving rate to maintain their spending levels in the face of higher energy costs," Pantheon Macroeconomics' Rob Wood says in a note. Ten-year gilt yields fall 2.4 basis points to last trade at 5.088%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0717 GMT - Bitcoin rises slightly as U.S. stock futures stabilize after sharp falls overnight. A jump in oil prices due to the U.S.-Iran conflict contributed to falls in equities and cryptocurrencies Thursday along with earnings from Tesla and Alphabet raising concerns about AI spending. Oil prices ease slightly Friday, although remain elevated, supporting expectations the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates this year. Bitcoin rises 0.6% to $65,509, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0705 GMT - Eurozone government bonds recover slightly as investors await French, German and eurozone purchasing managers' surveys. Any weakness in the readings could ease concerns about prospects of the European Central Bank raising interest rates. However, yields remain elevated, with the 10-year Bund yield having hit its highest since 2011 on Thursday. They risk rising further with Brent crude prices trading near $100 a barrel and the ECB suggesting on Thursday that rates could rise again. Rising oil prices will likely keep bond markets under pressure, though the PMI data "could provide some relief," Commerzbank analysts say in a note. The 10-year Bund yield falls 1.4 basis points to 3.1950, having hit 3.2118% on Thursday, LSEG data show. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)
0658 GMT - Sterling recovers slightly against a softer dollar but remains near a two-week low versus the euro, little moved after data showed U.K. retail sales unexpectedly rose in June. Retail sales rose 1.0% in June, whereas economists in a WSJ survey expected a 0.1% decline. Investors are now looking ahead to the U.K. purchasing mangers' survey for July at 0830 GMT. Sterling rises 0.1% to $1.3321 after the data, from $1.3309 beforehand, having reached a three-week low of $1.3296 Thursday, according to LSEG. The euro trades flat at 0.8544 pounds, near a two-week high of 0.8549 reached earlier. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0652 GMT - The dollar edges slightly lower but remains at elevated levels after reaching a three-week high on Thursday as a surge in energy prices boosted expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The market is now pricing a 33% chance the Fed could raise rates by 25 basis points on July 29 and is fully pricing a move by September, according to LSEG. The growing Middle East conflict has lifted energy prices, with the U.S. military saying late Thursday it completed its 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran. While oil prices stabilize somewhat Friday, they remain high. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 101.384, pulling back only marginally from the high of 101.544 reached Thursday.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0648 GMT - Upside risks to Japan's inflation outlook remain high as the yen's recent depreciation and a rebound in crude oil prices add to cost pressures, says Okasan Securities economist Ko Nakayama. Price hikes are now stemming from a broad range of drivers--not just crude and naphtha, but also rising wages, a weak yen and higher raw material and logistics costs, he adds. Government data released earlier Friday showed a mild pickup in consumer inflation for June. Bank of Japan policymakers have said they expect the impact of surging oil costs to start appearing in consumer prices around the summer. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0550 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields edge lower but stay near Thursday's peaks as Brent oil looks to stabilize around $100 per barrel, at least for now. Technical analysts at J.P. Morgan say the market could try to catch its footing near the next support level of 4.175%, "but we would like to see signs of seller exhaustion before we would suggest fading the move." The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edges 0.2 basis point lower to 4.701%, thus staying below an 18-month high of 4.714% reached Thursday, according to LSEG data. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0542 GMT - Incoming data point to a Federal Reserve staying on hold at its July meeting, and also a likelihood of keeping rates unchanged for the remainder of the year, say Morgan Stanley strategists in a note. "The Fed is running out of patience for above-target inflation," they write. "Inflation has to perform in the coming months--we think it will--or the Fed will switch to hikes later this year," the strategists say. Money markets price in almost two Fed rate hikes by year end, according to LSEG data. However, decelerating inflation may keep the Fed on hold this year, with the fed funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. "We expect disinflation to keep the Fed on hold this year."(emese.bartha@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 24, 2026 04:00 ET (08:00 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments