A divided outlook emerges for Europe’s green steel market

Fastmarkets07-24 12:00

Fastmarkets’ updated European green steel forecast comes at a difficult time for the region’s steel industry. Weak demand, pressure on conventional steel prices and limited traded volumes continue to ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2653708486?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-07-24 12:00","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2653708486","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"A divided outlook emerges for Europe’s green steel market","media":"Fastmarkets","content":"<div>\n<p>Fastmarkets’ updated European green steel forecast comes at a difficult time for the region’s steel industry. Weak demand, pressure on conventional steel prices and limited traded volumes continue to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/a-divided-outlook-emerges-for-europes-green-steel-market/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fastmarkets_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A divided outlook emerges for Europe’s green steel market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA divided outlook emerges for Europe’s green steel market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-24 12:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/a-divided-outlook-emerges-for-europes-green-steel-market/><strong>Fastmarkets</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Fastmarkets’ updated European green steel forecast comes at a difficult time for the region’s steel industry. Weak demand, pressure on conventional steel prices and limited traded volumes continue to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/a-divided-outlook-emerges-for-europes-green-steel-market/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4232","symbol_name":"货物陆运","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/a-divided-outlook-emerges-for-europes-green-steel-market/","article_id":"2653708486","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"fastmarkets_highlight","url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/a-divided-outlook-emerges-for-europes-green-steel-market/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2653708486","pubTimestamp":1784865600,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"fastmarkets_highlight","name":"Fastmarkets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Fastmarkets’ updated outlook shows how policy could reshape European green steel prices and production.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"fastmarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4232":"货物陆运","ETS":"Elite Express Holding Inc.","SLX":"VanEck Steel ETF"},"translate_title":"欧洲绿色钢铁市场前景分歧","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SLX":1.5,"ETS":0.79},"content_text":"Fastmarkets’ updated European green steel forecast comes at a difficult time for the region’s steel industry. Weak demand, pressure on conventional steel prices and limited traded volumes continue to constrain the green steel market in the near term. The policy debate has also reopened, with producers pressing for a softer carbon framework than the one currently legislated, arguing that competitiveness is at stake. The outlook becomes increasingly divergent through to 2035, as different EUA price trajectories reshape the cost competitiveness and uptake of lower-emission steel.\nIn our base scenario, a moderated EU ETS price trajectory, higher raw material costs and lower carbon price expectations have increased the relative cost of green steel. Supply volumes fall as a result, with premiums becoming concentrated among the products delivering the largest emissions reductions.\n\nNear-term green steel market conditions remain challenging\nGreen steel trading remains limited and largely concentrated in bilateral offtake agreements, with buyers continuing to balance emissions reductions against affordability.\nFastmarkets’ green flat steel premium (<0.8tCO2e/t) was assessed at €135 at the end of May, remaining broadly in line with the assessment six months prior. The premium for reduced emission steel (1.4-1.8tCO2e/t) fared less well, sliding 50% since the last publication, underlining the greater pressure on products offering more modest emissions reductions\n\n\n\nRising raw material and ETS costs narrow steel cost differentials and premia\nThe latest forecast builds on the previous edition by incorporating Fastmarkets’ proprietary EU Allowance (EUA) price forecast, revised raw material costs and more granular supply, demand and trade data.\nThe largest change is the introduction of fundamentals-driven EUA scenarios based on current stated EU policy. These sit alongside a policy-moderation scenario, reflecting the growing possibility of industrial and political pressure leading to EU intervention in the ETS.\nCoking coal prices are also expected to increase more than previously expected, with blast furnace costs revised upwards in all scenarios. This is a result of a slower than expected phase-out of global BF-BOFs, alongside difficulties in investing in new coking coal capacity. This leads to a tight supply-demand balance for coal, even as scrap and DRI-based production expands globally.\nUnder Fastmarkets’ Current Policy – Base ETS scenario, EUA prices exceed €200/tonne in 2035. This increases BF-BOF production costs by 124% relative to 2025 levels, eventually leaving conventional steel more expensive than EAF-produced alternatives. In a policy moderation scenario, however, EUA prices do not rise more than 50% above 2025 levels, with blast furnaces remaining competitive into the 2030s, despite the increased raw material costs.\n\n\n\n\n\nThese cost dynamics also create a widening range of green premia. By 2030, the green steel premium (<0.8tCO2e) is highest under policy moderation, as lower EUA prices preserve the cost advantage of conventional production. Under current-policy pathways, higher carbon costs narrow the cost gap with low-emission production and reduce the premium, with premiums for reduced-carbon and green steel disappearing by 2035.\n\nPolicy moderation slows the shift to lower-emission production\nIn a moderated EUA price scenario, green steel (<0.8tCO2e) supply decreases to 12.5 million tonnes by 2035, down from 15.9 million tonnes in the previous report. Conventional production meanwhile retains a considerably larger share of the market, delivering 42% more supply in 2035 compared to the previous estimates.\nThe greatest changes occur at the extremes of the market, as carbon price scenarios increasingly dictate cost profiles. The competitiveness of hydrogen-based DRI-EAF production is particularly exposed to carbon prices, as its higher input costs require a strong avoided-carbon-cost incentive. Conversely, BF-BOF production remains competitive for longer when carbon-price increases are moderated.\nUnder current stated EU policy, however, the outlook for near-zero steel has been revised upwards. Tighter allowance supply and the phase-out of free allocation raise the cost of emitting, accelerating the shift towards low- and near-zero-emission production.\n\n\n\nEU ETS review points to a more gradual transition\nThe updated forecast does not change the direction of Europe’s steel transition but instead widens the range of possible outcomes. Under a moderated EU ETS price trajectory, lower carbon costs support conventional production and reduce utilisation of the greenest capacity. Under current policy, rapidly rising carbon costs accelerate decarbonisation but create greater competitiveness and deindustrialisation risks.\nHowever, the Commission’s 17th July EU ETS review points towards a more gradual rise in carbon costs. It would lower the rate at which the ETS cap contracts to 3.7% in 2031-2035 and 1.7% in 2036-2040, reform the Market Stability reserve and extend the phase-out of free allowances for CBAM-covered sectors like steel. Free allocation would also be conditional on investment in EU decarbonisation, with the new Industrial Decarbonisation Bank (IDB) providing more funding to industrial transformation.\nWhilst these proposals are not yet law, and could be subject to change, they would reduce steelmakers’ carbon exposure. This could support medium-term competitiveness but may come at the cost of long-term low-emission production.\n\n\n\n\n\nForecast green steel premiums to 2035\nScenario-based forecasts across six emissions intensity bands, built to inform procurement, investment, and decarbonization planning\n\nRequest access","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.46.0","shortVersion":"4.46.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2653708486","isCrawlerRequest":true}