The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1208 ET - Bitcoin prices have been attempting to rally in recent days, but that momentum may be short-term -- as evidenced by bitcoin trading down 1.5% to $64,885, according to LSEG data. Traders think that macro-level pressure looks to keep a thumb on bitcoin prices, at least until the 4th quarter of the year, says analysts with Binance Research in a note. The firm says that bitcoin closed around $59,500 to end the first half of 2026, which makes it 53% that bitcoin has tumbled since hitting an all-time high above $120,000 in October 2025. "This places BTC within a plausible, though unconfirmed, historical bottoming window into Q4 2026," says Binance. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1154 ET - Economist Kyle Dahms at National Bank of Canada estimates that price-adjusted retail spending rose by nearly 1% annualized in 2Q in Canada, based on recent inflation data and Statistics Canada's estimate for retail sales for June. That estimated 1Q increase would mark a deceleration from the previous quarter, but Dahms says it's a solid outcome given the poor start to 2Q. On a per-capita basis, he estimates price-adjusted retail sales rose 1.4% annualized in 2Q. Statistics Canada's estimate for a 0.4% rise in nominal retail sales is likely fueled by spending on sporting goods and beverages tied to World Cup games hosted in Canada, the economist adds. He warns 3Q retail-sales data might deteriorate due to escalation of military attacks in Iran and higher oil prices. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1124 ET - An interest-rate hike by European Central Bank in September is possible but not certain, Berenberg's Felix Schmidt says in a note. Although the ECB's governing council voted unanimously to keep rates unchanged, some governors questioned whether an increase should be considered. The ECB is therefore keeping the door open to a potential hike in September, Schmidt says, though as President Christine Lagarde said, the burden of proof is on the data. "The ECB does not yet know how it will decide in seven weeks' time," he notes. The future path of rates will depend largely on how energy prices shift. "If these prices fall following the current spike, the ECB will probably stay put at the Sept. 10 meeting," he adds. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1119 ET - A jump in Treasury yields looks to make tight farmer budgets even harder to traverse. "For agriculture, this is the wrong rate shock at the wrong time," says Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull in a note. Wiesemeyer notes that borrowing costs for farming have begun to ease, but higher yields have reignited fears around future rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Farmers have been dealing with higher input costs, which in turn has inflated the size of the operating loans that they take out ahead of the growing season. "Ag bankers have reported falling loan repayment rates for eight consecutive quarters as three years of thin crop margins drain working capital," says Wiesemeyer. "So rising benchmarks feed straight into renewal-season stress." (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1101 ET - Even though the European Central Bank unanimously kept interest rates on hold, its President Christine Lagarde noted at the accompanying press conference that some policymakers considered hiking. "More than ever, everything indicates that the ECB will raise its key interest rates at the next meeting in September," Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer says in a note. Lagarde's statement that she no longer describes the upside risks to inflation as "more balanced," unlike at the recent Sintra Forum, goes in the same vein, he says. To halt a rate increase, there would now need to be a U.S.-Iran agreement soon and a credible, permanent opening of the Strait of Hormuz, Kraemer says. "This is not completely out of the question, but unlikely." (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1024 ET - Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by trading volume and market capitalization behind bitcoin, has been losing value relative to bitcoin for a little more than a year. "The question for investors is whether ETH is now cheap enough to mark a durable bottom--the precondition for ETH outperformance and, historically, for a broader altcoin season," says analysts with CryptoQuant in a note. Ethereum is now trading at $1,900, which is off nearly 20% from its average cost basis of just above $2,300, says CryptoQuant. But the firm notes that institutional investors appear to be moving more money into ethereum ETFs, and other signs appear to suggest that a price bottom may hit soon. Ethereum is down 1.4%, while bitcoin falls 1.5% to $64,875. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1010 ET - Fewer apartments are sitting empty, rents are climbing, and yet the deals keep coming, Zillow says. The typical U.S. asking rent rose to $1,965, up 2.2% compared to a year ago, and nearly 2 in 5 rental listings came with a concession attached. A concession is a move-in discount, commonly a free month's rent, waived fees or free parking. For renters who land a freebie, the real cost of renting can be softer than the asking price suggests. The 2.2% annual rent growth in June is a slight acceleration from the previous month. Yet the increase in concessions-39.7% of rental listings on Zillow offered one in June, up from 35.2% a year ago--softens the blow for renters. The backdrop is a rental market that has added significant new inventory over the past few years, giving renters more choices.(chris.wack@wsj.com)
1003 ET - While European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde dodged all questions about what policymakers are likely to decide in September, the bank is clearly worrying about upside risks to inflation, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Claus Vistesen says in a note. After the decision to hold rates steady, Lagarde acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the path of energy prices since the June staff projections, he says. That reveals that the decision will to a large extent depend on the trajectory of oil prices and conditions in the Middle East. That points to a quarter-point rate increase in September as the ECB's inflation forecasts will remain well above the prewar path, supporting a shift in policy towards the upper end of neutral, Vistesen says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1002 ET - U.S. pending home sales fell 1.3% week-over-week, Redfin says. That's the lowest level in three months. The decline in homebuying demand comes as weekly average mortgage rates rise to a 11-month high of 6.55%. Also, home prices are stubbornly high, sitting just about $900 shy of their all-time peak. The buyers who are in the market have more leverage than they've had in years, says Redfin. Homes that have been sitting on the market for longer than a few weeks often come with room to negotiate on price and seller concessions. But desirable, move-in ready homes can still be competitive because many people don't want to take on renovation costs while mortgage payments are high. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
0957 ET - Sterling could weaken later this year as the U.K. fiscal situation remains tense and the Bank of England is unlikely to raise interest rates, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. New U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham must achieve the "virtually impossible" task of implementing growth-friendly policies without placing greater strain on the budget, he says. Fiscal risks are likely to rise again from September ahead of the next budget, he says. Meanwhile, rate cuts are more likely than rate rises if the U.S.-Iran conflict is over by the end of September and the labor market remains weak, he says. Commerzbank expects the euro to rise to 0.88 pounds by December from 0.8531 currently. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0948 ET - The European Central Bank signalled the possibility of a rate increase in the coming months during Thursday's decision, MFS Investment Management's Peter Goves says in a note. The ECB kept rates unchanged at 2.25% but said that the full impact of the energy shock from the Middle East conflict is yet to surface. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the decision was unanimous, although some governors wondered whether a rate hike should be considered. Traders are pricing in a 71% chance of a quarter-point ECB rate rise in September and are fully pricing this move by October, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0943 ET - Oil prices and Treasury yields are rising ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed, which was once navigating the appropriate time to possibly lower interest rates, is now increasingly focused on more inflation risks, such as higher energy prices and demand driven by artificial intelligence investment. Oil prices are climbing back to $100 a barrel as President Trump says the U.S. would hold Iran responsible for future attacks by Houthi militants after the group fired on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. Investors are pricing in the possibility that the Fed may need to raise rates in the future. The 10-year yield reaches its highest intraday level since January 2025. Still, according to the CME's FedWatch tool, only 35.8% of investors expect the Fed to raise rates next week.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 23, 2026 12:08 ET (16:08 GMT)
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