The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1146 GMT - British Gas owner Centrica is dialing down 2027 expectations for its Centrica Energy trading unit, pointing to continued challenges for the business that won't be well received, RBC Capital Markets' Alexander Wheeler and Ziyad Jasimuddin say in a note. The business was positioned for an excess supply of gas at the start of this year and the hit now seems to be rolling into 2027, RBC says. The U.K. energy group said it expects 2027 adjusted Ebitda for Centrica Energy to be around the levels it recorded in 2025 and expects in 2026. This points to a result of between 200 million to 250 million pounds that compares with consensus expectations of 298 million pounds, according to RBC. Shares fall 8%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)
1109 GMT - U.K. inflation is expected to accelerate after slowing in June and could hit a peak of 3.3% in November, UBS Investment Bank economists say in a note. Utility bills are expected to rise in July and could push up annual headline inflation up to 2.9% from 2.6% in June, the economists say. "We expect food and goods inflation to pick up towards year-end as higher input costs--particularly for energy and fertilisers--are gradually passed through to consumers." The worsening Middle East conflict raises the risk of rising inflation, they say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1027 GMT - Palm oil ended higher as crude oil and soybean oil prices surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle East conflict, according to David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. The U.S. is increasing the presence of forces, medics and weaponry to the Middle East to give President Trump more military options, as he considers expanding the conflict against Iran, The Wall Street Journal reported. Ng sees prices for palm oil well supported above 4,600 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,780 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery rose 87 ringgit to 4,709 a ton.(tracy.qu@wsj.com)
1006 GMT - Centrica's decision to raise its interim dividend is generous given it is suffering from energy market volatility, AJ Bell's Russ Mould writes. The energy company has hiked its interim dividend by 9% to 2 pence a share. It is too simple that say Centrica is benefiting from higher energy prices, Mould says. Investment in several areas puts pressure on cash flow while the company has some bad debts, he says. Its retail-facing British Gas business performs better, he adds. Shares fall 9.3% to 163 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
1000 GMT - Shipping-insurance costs in the Strait of Hormuz surge as renewed tanker attacks make underwriters more reluctant to offer coverage, S&P Global Energy reports. Additional war-risk premiums have risen to between 7.5% and 10% of a vessel's hull value from 1% to 3% several weeks ago, while some tanker operators remain outside the strait rather than risk transit. Commercial activity also remains limited, with 10 vessels crossing Hormuz on Tuesday, compared with more than 130 daily transits before the Middle East war began, according to S&P. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
0952 GMT - The cost of insuring high-yield euro-denominated credit against default rises to a six-week high due to risk-off sentiment as the U.S.-Iran war intensifies. The U.S. on Wednesday said it fired strikes against Iranian targets, the 12th consecutive day of attacks. Iran continued attacks on ships on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran-backed Houthis claimed strikes on tankers in the Red Sea. The widening conflict has led investors to exercise caution. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps rises 3 basis points to 260bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0904 GMT - The Japanese yen falls to a fresh 40-year low against the dollar and the Swiss franc hits an 11-month low versus the dollar as the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict sends oil prices higher. The low-yielding yen and the franc are two of the worst performing G-10 currencies since the U.S.-Iran conflict started in late February and continue to underperform this month, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. "The negative energy price shock and building expectations for European Central Bank and Federal Reserve rate hikes has weighed on both currencies." The dollar rises to as high as 0.8156 francs and 163.44 yen. The euro also rises to a six-month high of 0.9316 Swiss francs, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0858 GMT - Norway's Equinor could upgrade full-year production guidance when it reports third-quarter results, Berenberg analysts write. The oil major's first-half production is up 6% year-on-year compared with full-year guidance of 3% growth, they say. While growth was expected to be weighted to the first half, Equinor has left the door open to revising its guidance, they add. Shares rise 3.37% to 392.30 Norwegian kroner. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0827 GMT - Goldman Sachs keeps its Brent crude forecast at $80 a barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026, but said fresh threats to Red Sea shipping and lower Kazakhstan exports have increased near-term upside risks to prices. The U.S. bank expects prices to hold most of their recent gains through the summer, supported by lower Middle East output, seasonal travel demand and continued inventory draws. Goldman still forecasts Brent at an average of $75 a barrel in 2027, saying strategic stockpiling should provide a floor for prices despite an expected global supply surplus. However, it warned Brent could surge above $120 a barrel if disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz persist through next year, with further upside if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal are also disrupted. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0817 GMT - France's TotalEnergies is prioritizing cutting net debt over higher distributions, RBC Capital Markets analyst Biraj Borkhataria writes. Its flat $1.5 billion quarterly share buyback comes as net debt falls $3.3 billion on the prior quarter. The company uses higher cash generation and a working capital release to pay the debt, he adds. Overall, net income is in line with expectations, while the marketing business seems to have had one of its strongest quarters in recent history, he adds. Shares rise 2.6% to 76.24 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0816 GMT - The European Central Bank could signal a possible September interest-rate rise through a media leak after Thursday's meeting, but this is unlikely to prevent the euro from falling in coming days, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. ING's near-term bias for the euro remains "titled to the downside" as currency markets appear "dangerously complacent" about the escalating Middle East conflict, he says. "Unless the newsflow becomes more constructive, we look for the euro to slip towards $1.1380 in the coming days." The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1423. The ECB announces its policy decision at 1215 GMT and is expected to leave rates unchanged but markets price a 90% chance of a rate rise in September, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0811 GMT - Oil prices extend gains for a fifth consecutive session after the U.S. carried out another round of strikes on Iran and unverified reports said Houthi rebels targeted two tankers in the Red Sea, fueling concerns over disruptions to another key shipping route. In early trading, Brent crude climbs 4.6% to $98.39 a barrel, while WTI futures rise 3.4% to $89.75 a barrel. "The U.S.-Iran conflict has shown no sign of easing, and there's still no indication of any emerging peace deal either," analysts at Deutsche Bank say. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply from June levels, while Kpler ship-tracking data show some vessels have rerouted to avoid the Red Sea after the Houthis announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia. The Houthis' threats have heightened concerns over longer shipping times, higher freight costs and the risk of tighter global oil supplies if the conflict escalates further. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 23, 2026 07:47 ET (11:47 GMT)
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