The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0905 GMT - Business confidence in France inched up in July, though it remains subdued overall, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Claus Vistesen says in a note. The headline manufacturing sentiment index rose to 101 in July from 100 in June, marginally above its long-run average. Across sectors, the small manufacturing increase was joined by a rebound in services confidence, while sentiment in retail trade jumped--possibly due to the World Cup. "Overall, these are encouraging data, pointing to a clear improvement in business sentiment," Vistesen says. More generally, hard date for the second quarter point to a stronger GDP outturn in next week's first print than surveys imply. "We think the initial estimate will show that GDP rose by 0.3% in 2Q, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in 1Q." (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0904 GMT - The Japanese yen falls to a fresh 40-year low against the dollar and the Swiss franc hits an 11-month low versus the dollar as the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict sends oil prices higher. The low-yielding yen and the franc are two of the worst performing G-10 currencies since the U.S.-Iran conflict started in late February and continue to underperform this month, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. "The negative energy price shock and building expectations for European Central Bank and Federal Reserve rate hikes has weighed on both currencies." The dollar rises to as high as 0.8156 francs and 163.44 yen. The euro also rises to a six-month high of 0.9316 Swiss francs, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0858 GMT - Hong Kong's common-law system could make it a useful gateway for Malaysian companies seeking to enter mainland China. Its more familiar legal and business environment may help reduce execution risks, particularly for smaller companies, although using Hong Kong as an intermediary may involve additional costs, Hong Kong Trade Development Council Regional Director for Southeast Asia and South Asia Leung Kwan Ho says in a media roundtable. Hong Kong will continue leveraging its "one country, two systems" framework to connect overseas businesses with mainland China, he adds. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0844 GMT - Hong Kong businesses are turning to Asean markets for diversification amid continuing geopolitical tensions, according to Leung Kwan Ho, Hong Kong Trade Development Council regional director for Southeast Asia and South Asia. Speaking at a media roundtable in Kuala Lumpur, he says that companies are looking beyond their traditional Western markets as supply chains realign and Southeast Asian economies expand. Leung sees opportunities across the services sector. Professional services such as consulting in finance, engineering, technology and infrastructure, as well as risk management, are areas where Hong Kong companies can collaborate with Malaysian counterparts while deepening bilateral trade and investment, he says. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0816 GMT - The European Central Bank could signal a possible September interest-rate rise through a media leak after Thursday's meeting, but this is unlikely to prevent the euro from falling in coming days, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. ING's near-term bias for the euro remains "titled to the downside" as currency markets appear "dangerously complacent" about the escalating Middle East conflict, he says. "Unless the newsflow becomes more constructive, we look for the euro to slip towards $1.1380 in the coming days." The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1423. The ECB announces its policy decision at 1215 GMT and is expected to leave rates unchanged but markets price a 90% chance of a rate rise in September, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0812 GMT - Sterling could continue to hand back recent gains if U.K. short-dated rates drift lower and fiscal risks return, ING analysts say in a note. Inflation probably won't reach the 4% threshold seen as the trigger for the Bank of England to raise interest rates while the European Central Bank could deliver one more rate rise, they say. New U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham's openness to bigger policy changes means a bolder budget, expected in October or November, cannot be ruled out, they say. The euro rises to a nine-day high of 0.8544 pounds, having hit a 13-month low of 0.8453 last week, according to LSEG. ING expects it to reach 0.88 by year-end and 0.90 in 2027. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0806 GMT - Markets increase their expectations of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in 2026 due to rising oil prices and inflation fears. Intensifying conflict in the Middle East has led investors to price in the possibility of high inflation and potential central bank rate hikes to tackle inflation. Investors fully price in one quarter-point BOE rate increase in November and a 93% possibility of a second rate rise in December, LSEG data show. Traders were pricing in a total of 38 basis points of BOE rate rises in 2026, last week. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0805 GMT - U.S. and eurozone government bond yields rise across maturities, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury and German Bund yields hitting two-month highs of 4.671% and 3.198%, respectively, according to Tradeweb data. Yields have been climbing in recent sessions as renewed escalation in the Middle East prompted oil prices to rise, with Brent last trading 3.80% higher at $97.64. The rise in oil prices could concern policymakers at the European Central Bank ahead of a monetary policy decision later in the day. The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold, while a rate hike is anticipated in the coming months. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0735 GMT - Gold prices fall after reaching a two-week high on Wednesday, as escalating tensions in the Middle East drive oil higher, fueling concerns over inflation and interest-rate hikes. In early trading, gold futures in New York are down 1% to $4,110.30 a troy ounce, after rising in the previous session as dip-buyers emerged despite firmer U.S. yields. Investors now await the Federal Reserve's meeting next week for more cues on the monetary policy outlook. While the U.S. central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged this month, traders expect at least one rate hike by the end of the year. Higher interest rates tend to diminish the appeal of non-yielding bullion. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0730 GMT - Bitcoin falls as U.S. stock futures decline amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and after earnings from Alphabet and Tesla fuelled concerns about AI spending. The U.S. is surging forces, medics and weaponry to the Middle East as President Trump considers expanding the conflict against Iran, WSJ reports. Shares in Tesla and Alphabet fell in after-hours trading after both reported negative free cash flow for the latest quarter and said they expect higher capital expenditures. Bitcoin falls 0.3% to $65,673, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0726 GMT - The euro rises ahead of the European Central Bank's policy decision later in the day. The ECB is largely expected to keep rates on hold when it announces its decision at 1215 GMT but markets are pricing in an 84% chance of a 25 basis-point rate rise in September, LSEG data show. Investors will be keen to hear the ECB's response to the renewed rise in oil prices stemming from the escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict. The ECB is likely to cement the prospect of a rate rise in September, although the euro is unlikely to benefit much since this is largely priced in, Commerzbank's Antje Praefcke says in a note. The euro rises 0.2% to $1.1427. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0718 GMT - Yields on 10-year U.K. government bonds, or gilts, rise to a two-month high as soaring oil prices raise inflation risk and increase the possibility of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in 2026. "The latest rise in energy prices led to fresh concerns about a more prolonged stagflationary shock, with investors pricing in more inflation as a result," Deutsche Bank Research strategists say in a note. Ten-year gilt yields climb 3.8 basis points to a high of 5.080%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 23, 2026 05:05 ET (09:05 GMT)
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