The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0734 GMT - China is likely able to draw down its crude inventories and sustain historically low import levels for several more months, possibly into 2027, Capital Economics says in a note. Economist Hamad Hussain says the sharp decline in China's crude imports has been a key factor capping global oil prices. He argues the drop reflects the end of China's streak of oil stockpiling, rather than weaker end-user demand from long-term trends such as rising EV adoption. However, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for much longer, oil markets are still likely to reach a tipping point in the coming months, potentially pushing crude prices to $120 a barrel or higher. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
0727 GMT - The recent re-escalation of the Middle East conflict could transform the energy supply disruption from a crude-routing problem to a broader supply-chain crisis, ANZ commodity strategists say in a research note. The oil market has avoided a more disorderly price response so far because of several buffers, including China's sharp reduction in crude imports, they say. However, the latest strikes raise concerns about whether these buffers can effectively keep the world supplied with oil, as a disruption to the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb shipping would undermine one of the market's most important workarounds, they note. ANZ maintains its end-Q3 2026 Brent crude forecast of $92 per barrel, but warns if regional supply disruptions intensify, Brent could rise towards $120 a barrel. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0721 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, decline slightly as oil prices stabilize, reversing Thursday's rise when 10-year gilt yields hit a 2-month high of 5.122%. U.K. retail sales data for June were better than expected, with monthly sales rising by 1.0%, better than the consensus forecast for a 0.1% contraction by economists in a WSJ survey. The data show that "households remain willing to run down their high saving rate to maintain their spending levels in the face of higher energy costs," Pantheon Macroeconomics' Rob Wood says in a note. Ten-year gilt yields fall 2.4 basis points to last trade at 5.088%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0717 GMT - Bitcoin rises slightly as U.S. stock futures stabilize after sharp falls overnight. A jump in oil prices due to the U.S.-Iran conflict contributed to falls in equities and cryptocurrencies Thursday along with earnings from Tesla and Alphabet raising concerns about AI spending. Oil prices ease slightly Friday, although remain elevated, supporting expectations the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates this year. Bitcoin rises 0.6% to $65,509, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0702 GMT - Brent crude edge lower in early trading after settling above $100 a barrel, though prices remained on track for weekly gains of more than 12% as threats to Red Sea shipping stoked fears of further supply disruptions. The global oil benchmark falls 1.3% to $99.39 a barrel, while WTI futures slip 1.4% to $90.89 a barrel. "The key question is at what price level pressure begins to build on the Trump administration to return to the negotiating table," analysts at ING say. Based on previous price spikes during the early stages of the conflict, they say pressure to de-escalate would rise significantly if Brent approaches $120 a barrel. For Iran, the more pressing issue is not the level of oil prices, but how long the country can withstand a sharp drop in oil revenue under the U.S. blockade. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0658 GMT - Sterling recovers slightly against a softer dollar but remains near a two-week low versus the euro, little moved after data showed U.K. retail sales unexpectedly rose in June. Retail sales rose 1.0% in June, whereas economists in a WSJ survey expected a 0.1% decline. Investors are now looking ahead to the U.K. purchasing mangers' survey for July at 0830 GMT. Sterling rises 0.1% to $1.3321 after the data, from $1.3309 beforehand, having reached a three-week low of $1.3296 Thursday, according to LSEG. The euro trades flat at 0.8544 pounds, near a two-week high of 0.8549 reached earlier. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0652 GMT - The dollar edges slightly lower but remains at elevated levels after reaching a three-week high on Thursday as a surge in energy prices boosted expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The market is now pricing a 33% chance the Fed could raise rates by 25 basis points on July 29 and is fully pricing a move by September, according to LSEG. The growing Middle East conflict has lifted energy prices, with the U.S. military saying late Thursday it completed its 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran. While oil prices stabilize somewhat Friday, they remain high. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 101.384, pulling back only marginally from the high of 101.544 reached Thursday.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0550 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields edge lower but stay near Thursday's peaks as Brent oil looks to stabilize around $100 per barrel, at least for now. Technical analysts at J.P. Morgan say the market could try to catch its footing near the next support level of 4.175%, "but we would like to see signs of seller exhaustion before we would suggest fading the move." The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edges 0.2 basis point lower to 4.701%, thus staying below an 18-month high of 4.714% reached Thursday, according to LSEG data. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0528 GMT - India HSBC Flash PMI data showed the weakest expansions in private sector sales and output since early 2022, according to its latest survey. HSBC Flash India PMI Composite Output fell to 54.3 in July from 57.1 in June while remaining in expansionary territory. Growth was capped by an increasingly challenging market, competitive pressures, order cancellations, reduced client enquiries and shortages of key raw materials, the survey showed. Inflationary pressures intensified, but new export orders rose at a stronger pace. "Renewed tensions in the Middle East have once again resulted in firms building buffers to manage the uncertainties around the longevity of the supply-side shock," says Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 24, 2026 03:34 ET (07:34 GMT)
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