Trump tells Axios he's close to making a decision on a 'massive attack' on Iran
Yemen's Houthis said they had launched strikes on two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea.
Oil futures climbed sharply Thursday, with global benchmark Brent crude topping $100 a barrel for the first time since May, after Yemen's Houthi militants claimed attacks on two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea.
That has amped up the threat to the flow of oil in the Middle East, particularly through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, an oil chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea. And the situation could soon worsen further.
President Donald Trump told Axios Thursday that he's considering a "massive attack" against Iran that would be bigger than ever before, and that the U.S. is "all set for it." In an earlier post on Truth Social, Trump said he would hold Iran responsible for further attacks on Saudi ships and would inflict "major military punishment" on Iran and the Houthis if it happens again.
This follows the Iran-backed rebel group's threat to target Saudi Arabian shipping and block Saudi access through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait - and it "effectively hems" Saudi Arabia into a conflict in which its Persian Gulf neighbors are "already having to deal with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran," said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation.
Global benchmark Brent crude's September front-month contract (BRN00) (BRNU26) was up over 7% to settle at $100.69 a barrel Thursday, its highest level since May 22. Brent has risen for five consecutive sessions and logged its largest five-day gain since March 9, according to Dow Jones Market Data
West Texas Intermediate crude's contract for September delivery (CL.1) (CLU26) climbed 6.2% to $92.19 a barrel, with the U.S. benchmark settling at its highest level in seven weeks.
For oil, this is "no longer just headline volatility," Amena Bakr, head of Middle East energy and OPEC+ insights at Kpler, wrote in a post on X Thursday. Coordinated pressure on both Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz, direct tanker targeting and an escalating military conflict with no clear path to de-escalation are creating a "structural supply risk," Bakr said.
She estimated a 25% disruption to global oil supplies - noting that "there is no spare capacity that can replace 25% of global supply." Emergency releases from the world's strategic petroleum reserves have helped to ease the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz since March.
Economists at Handelsbanken, led by James Sproule, wrote in a note on Thursday that Brent crude's existing gain of about 30% since the U.S. and Iran resumed fighting after their recent ceasefire is "a rise that looks set to continue" if the two carry on with strikes.
Yahya Saree, the rebels' military spokesperson, said missile and drone strikes had been launched against the Saudi vessels, which he claimed in a post on Telegram had "violated the blockade." The Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia early this week.
In a post on X, U.S. Central Command said late Wednesday that it had carried out another round of strikes against Iran for a 12th straight night, targeting maritime capabilities, missile- and drone-storage sites, coastal surveillance facilities and air-defense assets.
"The strikes further degrade Iran's ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial vessels," Centcom said in a statement.
The latest strikes bring further uncertainty to investors as to when shipping might resume at more typical levels through the Strait of Hormuz, with peace talks between Washington and Tehran no longer seeming imminent.
Strategists at RBC Capital Markets, led by Peter Schaffrik, wrote in a note on Thursday that while reserves of oil are currently being released, the situation will get to a point by the fall where inventories can't be depleted much more. They said this could represent a "crunch point" ahead of the winter heating season - but with that still a few months away, there are currently enough supplies for global economies to continue to function relatively normally, they noted.
-Myra P. Saefong -Nora Redmond
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July 23, 2026 15:18 ET (19:18 GMT)
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