The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
1412 ET - Trump's new 50% tariffs should only affect a narrow slice of Canadian forest-product exports, says TD Cowen's Sean Steuart. He says in a report that major Canadian forest products are "seemingly exempted from the annex list provided by the U.S. government," and that only a few equities will likely be exposed to potential Section 338 tariffs. Steuart says the tariffs apply mainly to paper packaging, tissue, and certain specialty engineered wood products, while major Canadian exports like softwood lumber, OSB, and market pulp are excluded. He notes that KP Tissue is the most exposed, while Cascades and West Fraser Timber are only marginally exposed to the tariffs. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
1235 ET - Yesterday's adjustments to the Section 232 aluminum tariffs, which add an "incentive program" for companies to invest in U.S. aluminum smelters, is not seen as moving the needle for U.S. aluminum, which remains reliant on foreign producers despite 8 years of the tariff. "U.S. primary aluminium production has continued to decline over the years despite years of tariff protection," says ING Economics in a note. Not only does the building of an aluminum smelter require years of work, but access to "reliable, competitively priced electricity" is a bigger barrier for the building of new aluminum smelting. As a result, aluminum prices and regional premiums are expected to remain elevated, says the firm. 3-Month LME aluminum prices are up 0.9% to $3,169.50/mt. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1145 ET - A severe winter storm in Chile has temporarily disrupted Lundin Mining's operations, but TD Cowen's Craig Hutchison thinks the impact should be short-lived and doesn't threaten full-year guidance. At Caserones, mining is suspended due to heavy snowfall and power issues, and Hutchison estimates roughly $12 million in Ebitda lost per week of downtime, though management had already factored weather risks into its 130,000 to 140,000 metric-ton forecast. At Candelaria, mining paused but the mill continues to run on stockpiled ore, keeping its outlook intact as well. Depending on how long access restoration takes, Hutchison thinks the storm's effects will be a neutral to slightly negative impact. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
0616 ET - Palm oil futures closed lower, weighed by a pullback in rival soy oil and potential profit taking overnight, Kenanga Futures analysts said in a note. The downside was likely cushioned by concerns over the possible impact of a super El Nino on future supply and expectations of strong demand from India ahead of the festive season, it added. Kenanga Futures pegs the support and resistance for the October contract at 4,560 ringgit a metric ton and 4,665 ringgit a ton, respectively. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery ended 34 ringgit lower at 4,609 ringgit a ton. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0454 ET - London's miners trade higher in mid-morning European trade as gold prices gain. This comes as mediators work on a new ceasefire agreement. Reports that talks were ongoing halted oil's rise and eased some inflation concerns. At the same time, investors have bought gold, which has suffered from some price weakness, MUFG's Soojin Kim writes. "Markets continue to balance the inflationary impact of higher energy costs against weaker U.S. economic data, with expectations that persistent inflation could prompt the Fed to maintain a tighter monetary policy stance," she writes. In New York, gold futures are up 1.3% at $4,068 a troy ounce. In London, precious metal miners Fresnillo, Hochschild Mining and Endeavour Mining all rise over 2.3%. Commodities giant Glencore gains 2% and Anglo American rises 1.5%.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0326 ET - China Modern Dairy is likely to swing to profit in 2026 as industry fundamentals improve, DBS Group Research analysts say in a note. Raw milk prices are on track to recover to around 3.10 yuan per kilogram by year-end, compared with contract prices of roughly 3.02 yuan a kilogram in 2Q, they say. Fair-value losses on biological assets should narrow to 2 billion yuan or less from 3.1 billion yuan in 2025, lifting China Modern Dairy's earnings, they add. The analysts project 2026 revenue growth of 5% on year and a turnaround to 169 million yuan in profit from a 1.1 billion yuan loss last year. DBS maintains its buy rating and a target price of 1.70 Hong Kong dollars. Shares rise 8.7% to HK$1.25.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0120 ET - Higher nickel ore prices are likely to support Central Omega Resources' earnings, despite a quota cut on mining, says UOB Kay Hian. Indonesia's new nickel ore benchmark pricing framework, which took effect April 15, and the limited nickel ore mining quota across the industry have driven realized prices of the commodity sharply higher, the analyst says. However, the brokerage cuts its 2026 and 2027 net-profit forecasts for the mining and mineral processing company by 6% and 21%, respectively, to reflect lower sales volume assumptions. It lowers the stock's target price to 820.00 rupiah from 900.00 rupiah, with an unchanged buy rating. Shares are 3.0% lower at 655.00 rupiah. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2109 ET - Gold still offers value as a hedge against large equity-price declines, says Capital Economics' Thomas Mathews in a note. The yellow metal has arguably behaved more like a "risky" asset than a "safe" one lately, as its recent price volatility has been comparable with that of the benchmark S&P 500 stock index, the strategist says. Gold's underperformance amid the Middle East conflict also seems to undermines its alleged inflation-hedge status, he says. However, gold's link with real bond yields still seems intact, and he expects that any fall in real yields would give the metal a boost. He also doesn't anticipate gold's recent positive correlation with equities to last if the economy takes a blow and spurs the Federal Reserve to cut policy rates aggressively. Spot gold rises 0.3% to $4,022.19 a troy ounce. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
2031 ET - Gold edges higher in Asian trade. Physical demand for the metal, particularly in China, and central bank buying are underpinning the gold market, say ANZ Research analysts in a note. While bullion faces near-term headwinds from Federal Reserve tightening expectations and a firm dollar, investment positioning in the yellow metal looks lean after months of exchange-traded fund outflows, which suggests further declines could be limited, the analysts add. A higher interest-rate environment typically weighs on nonyielding assets like gold. Spot gold rises 0.1% to $4,014.07 a troy ounce.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)
1925 ET - AIC Mines has been sold off after its 4Q output softened slightly, but Ord Minnett stays bullish and says there aren't likely to be any lingering issues from the quarterly result. Ord Minnett raises its price target by 5.9%, to A$0.90/share, citing AIC Mines's new outlook that includes an accelerated expansion of its Eloise copper project. AIC Mines now expects to reach 25,000 tons of copper concentrate annually by FY29, beating expectations. "There is now improved valuation appeal," says analyst Paul Kaner. AIC Mines's share price closed Monday at A$0.625, close to a one-month low. Ord Minnett retains a "speculative buy" call on its stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
Capital Management is shaping up as an option for Aurelia Metals, says Jefferies. Aurelia Metals had A$143.9 million in cash at the end of June. That was up A$49.2 million on 3Q and beat consensus hopes by 14%. Analyst Daniel Roden notes Aurelia Metals's liquidity stands at A$183.9 million, and the company hasn't drawn on its A$40 million revolving credit facility. "The new facility carries no cash-backing requirement, materially lower financing costs, and opens forward capital management as a live option," Jefferies says. It retains a buy call and A$0.40/share price target on Aurelia Metals, which ended Monday at A$0.29. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1850 ET - Jefferies assumes AIC Mines's expansion of its Eloise copper project will incur capital costs of A$30 million. That's higher than the A$15 million guided by the company to bring Eloise's capacity to 1.5 million tons of ore a year. Still, analyst Daniel Roden says the capex forecast is "meaningfully below our prior estimated A$45 million-A$65 million, given key long-lead items have been oversized during Stage 1." AIC Mines says the expanded Eloise operation will be ready in the December quarter of 2028. That's around two years earlier than previously planned. Jefferies has a "buy" call on AIC Mines and raises its price target by 11%, to A$1.00/share. AIC Mines ended Monday at A$0.625. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 21, 2026 16:50 ET (20:50 GMT)
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