The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1007 ET - The Swiss franc falls to another 13-month low against the dollar as the recent jump in energy prices boosts expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The market sees a 34% chance that the Fed will raise rates on Wednesday and is fully pricing a move by September, according to LSEG. This weighs on the low-yielding franc where markets see little chance of the Swiss National Bank raising rates any time soon. The dollar rises 0.2% on the day to as high as 0.8184 francs. The euro rises 0.1% to 0.9301 francs, having reached a six-month high of 0.9316 Thursday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0958 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are slightly higher while still struggling to break out of their recent range under $3. Even yesterday's "modestly supportive" report of a 32 Bcf storage build wasn't enough to avoid a small decline in the Nymex front month, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. "While bears beat back the bullish test higher, however, searing heat will return early next week, particularly in Texas, while Corpus Christi LNG feedgas nominations are creeping up." Early August heat could also provide a catalyst to retest the $3/mmBtu level, he adds. Nymex gas is up 0.4% at $2.928/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0953 ET - Emerging market debt provides attractive investment opportunities, especially where real yields remain high, BlackRock's Michel Aubenas says in a note. "Parts of Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa stand out in a more benign global rates environment," he says. If energy prices fall, this could lower the prospects of central banks raising interest rates and improve risk sentiment for emerging-market assets, Aubenas says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0950 ET - Sterling and euro were little moved by Friday's better-than-expected U.K. and eurozone purchasing managers' surveys as the data don't reflect the latest surge in energy prices, Monex Europe's Barry van der Laan says in a note. Both surveys were conducted between July 9 and 22, before Brent crude surged above $100 on the Middle East conflict, he says. "Had investors believed these surveys fundamentally changed the outlook for growth and inflation, both currencies should have responded positively." August PMIs and the next inflation releases carry more significance. They could show whether the renewed energy-price shock is impacting business confidence, pricing behaviors and activity, he says. Sterling and the euro are little changed at $1.3317 and $1.1371, respectively.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0945 ET - The dollar's strength looks set to persist until the U.S. and Iran can agree another ceasefire and energy prices come lower, ING analysts say in a note. A de-escalation in the conflict and a resumption in energy flows would cause oil prices to drop and U.S. interest rate rise expectations to unwind, they say. Should the conflict escalate and oil prices rise further, inflation would rise sharply and the Federal Reserve would need to respond by raising rates. The euro could fall below $1.13 while the dollar could rise to 165 yen, they say. The euro last trades down 0.1% at $1.1370 and the dollar is flat at 163.84 yen. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0945 ET - Oil futures are lower with Brent retreating below the $100 mark hit when Yemen's Houthis attacked Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, threatening the main alternative route for Saudi oil shipments. Prices are likely to stay within yesterday's range "with buying caution prompted ahead of a weekend that could bring major developments of either a bullish or bearish nature," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. The firm sees rising odds of renewed ceasefire talks, although Iran hasn't so far responded to President Trump's threats of massive attacks. "We feel that such events are more apt to skew bullish than bearish." Brent is off 2.8% at $97.89 a barrel, and WTI is down 2.3% at $90.09 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0945 ET - European natural-gas prices are headed for a weekly gain of more than 11%, as escalating hostilities in the Middle East continue to threaten global LNG supplies. In afternoon trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 3.3% to 64 euros a megawatt-hour. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have prompted Asian buyers to increase purchases of U.S. cargoes that would typically be destined for Europe. As a result, European LNG imports have fallen by more than is usual for the summer season. "If disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, upward pressure on European gas prices is likely to continue," says Norman Liebke from Commerzbank. The outlook is further complicated by Europe's historically low gas storage levels, which require substantial replenishment ahead of winter and will be difficult to rebuild without stronger LNG inflows. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0940 ET - Houthi threats in the Red Sea could force some vessels to reroute, increasing shipping costs and complicating logistics, but oil shipping from Yanbu is still expected to reach global markets, says Hamad Hussain from Capital Economics. "It is unlikely that all oil flows from Yanbu port will be choked off from global supply," the commodities economist says. Tankers carrying Saudi crude could still travel north through the Suez Canal, although the longer route would increase transit times and costs while limiting the ability of fully loaded supertankers to pass through. Another uncertainty is whether the blockade applies to all vessels. Some Chinese-flagged tankers have previously passed through the Bab El-Mandeb Strait without incident, raising questions over whether certain ships may continue operating, Hussain says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0847 ET - An agreement to end the U.S.-Iran conflict wouldn't necessarily bode well for the euro even if it is positive for the eurozone economy, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. If oil prices fall on any de-escalation in the conflict, the market could price out interest-rate rise expectations for the European Central Bank, he says. This was evident after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June where the euro saw little support from a significant fall in oil prices, he says. For now, ECB rate-rise bets are mitigating the negative impact of the recent jump in oil prices due to the re-escalation in the conflict, he says. The euro trades steady at $1.1381. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0824 ET - European equities are exposed to a clutch of possible negative catalysts, Bank of America analysts write. The Europe-wide Stoxx 600 remains close to record highs, while expectations for European companies' margins are at all-time highs, the analysts say. "Much of the good news is already in the price. This leaves the market vulnerable to disappointment," they say. Potential downside risks include wobbles in the AI trade and continued escalation in the Middle East leading to higher energy prices. Moreover, the prospect of a higher interest-rate environment could prompt further European underperformance. The Stoxx 600 rises 0.5% Friday, and is up 8.5% for the year. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0745 ET - Chinese government bonds have shown resilience despite the global market turbulence, emerging as a "clear low-volatility anchor," BlackRock's Navin Saigal says in a note. The Chinese government bonds have remained steady due to the government's supportive policy stance, strong domestic liquidity, and an economic cycle that is disconnected from the West, Saigal says. "Economies with greater policy autonomy and lower oil sensitivity, notably China, are better positioned as defensive anchors." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0621 ET - Palm oil ended higher. Prices are likely to remain supported in the near term, according to Chaos Ternary Futures analysts in a research note. Indonesia has officially launched its B50 biodiesel program, which will boost crude palm oil consumption, they point out. Data from Malaysia for July shows a month-on-month drop in production, they note. Despite recent retreats, middle east tension still keeps crude oil pries at elevated levels, which is likely to provide a support for crude palm oil's prices. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery rises 13 ringgit to 4,723 ringgit a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 24, 2026 10:07 ET (14:07 GMT)
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