TotalEnergies Forecasts Strong LNG Prices and Refining Margins for Q3

TotalEnergies SE (NYSE:TTE) stock is trading higher on Wednesday after the company reported second-quarter 2026 results.

Details

Adj. EPS $2.68 Misses $2.71 Estimate, Sales $61.771B Miss $69.150B Estimate

The French energy giant posted adjusted earnings of $2.68 per share, missing the $2.71 consensus estimate.

Revenue for the quarter came in at $61.77 billion, below the expectations of $69.15 billion.

Adjusted net income rose to $6.0 billion from $3.6 billion in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $13.2 billion, up from $9.69 billion in the year-ago quarter.

Oil & Gas production reached 2.395 Mboe/d, led by new project ramp-ups in Brazil, the U.S., and Libya, which offset Middle East production disruptions.

Cash flow from operations excluding working capital changes stood at $9.8 billion in the quarter.

Segment Performance

• Exploration & Production delivered $3.2 billion in adjusted net operating income and $5.8 billion in cash flow, benefiting from higher liquid prices while maintaining upstream costs at $5/barrel.
• Integrated LNG generated $0.8 billion in adjusted net operating income and cash flow, impacted by weaker European gas trading. The company expanded LNG diversification with the ECA LNG project startup in Mexico and new long-term LNG agreements in Asia.
• Integrated Power delivered $700 million in adjusted cash flow, up 25%, supported by EPH assets. Downstream cash flow rose 35% to $2.9 billion, with adjusted net operating income increasing 24% to $2.3 billion, driven by stronger refining, chemicals, trading, and marketing performance.
• Refining & Chemicals reported adjusted net operating income of $1.8 billion in the second quarter, benefiting from improved refining and petrochemical margins. Meanwhile, oil trading performance remained strong and in line with the first quarter levels.
• Marketing & Services delivered adjusted net operating income of $500 million in the quarter, supported by seasonal strength in Europe and a 21% Y/Y increase driven by improved unit margins.

Share Repurchase & Dividend

The Board approved a second interim dividend of 90 cents euros per share for FY26, up 5.9% (Y/Y).

The Board bought back 16.9 million shares in the second quarter for $1.5 billion. It also authorized up to $1.5 billion in share buybacks for the third quarter.

Outlook

Refining margins reached historically high levels, supported by reduced Russian refining capacity, Middle East supply disruptions, and low global inventories.

The company expects European gas prices to remain elevated at $16–$20/Mbtu, driven by low inventories, winter restocking needs, and ongoing Middle East tensions affecting LNG supply. TotalEnergies expects average LNG selling prices to exceed $11.5/Mbtu in the third quarter of 2026.

Excluding Middle East disruptions, Q3 production is expected to grow 3% year over year, while regional impacts could reduce total output by 5%–10%. Refinery utilization is expected at 80%–85%, with SATORP operations expected to return to full capacity by quarter-end. The company reaffirmed its 2026 investment plan of $15 billion.

TTE Stock Price Activity: TotalEnergies shares were up 1.78% at $86.42 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Photo by Vytautas Kielaitis via Shutterstock