The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1156 ET - The falling availability of oil from the Persian Gulf is likely to support crude prices in coming weeks, although immediate demand seems to have been met with the supply surge that occurred under the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, Vikas Dwivedi of Macquarie Group says in a note. "The reintroduction of geopolitical risk premium has driven the recent rally along with a short squeeze propelled by historically high short interest prior to the ceasefire's collapse," he says. Macquarie assigns a "medium probability" of modest escalation from here, "but a low probability for a return to a large-scale conflict, absent a serious miscalculation by either side." WTI is up 6.5% at $92.44 a barrel and Brent is up 6.8% at $100.82.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1117 ET - Canadian energy companies are among the top gainers on Toronto's indexes as oil surges back higher, with Brent crude reaching $100 a barrel before easing amid renewed Middle East tensions flaring up. Crude jumped after Tehran-backed Houthi militants claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, threatening another key shipping route and reviving fears of a broader return to confrontation with Iran. Canada's energy companies have already benefited from higher prices and renewed investor interest during the early weeks of the conflict as limited movement in the key shipping lane of the Strait of Hormuz threatened global supplies. Among the top gainers in the session are Vermilion Energy, Athabasca Oil, Cenovus and Suncor. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
1106 ET - RTX and Lockheed Martin shares are climbing despite a wider selloff hitting the broader market. The defense contractors just reported strong 2Q earnings bolstered by hefty spending for the White House's military actions in Iran, particularly for missile systems. RTX shares are up over 7% and on pace for their largest percent increase in nearly two years. Lockheed shares are up nearly 11%and on pace for their largest percent increase in more than six years. The rest of the market is getting crushed as global oil prices climb back to $100 a barrel from Tehran-backed Houthi militant attacks on Saudi tankers. (dean.seal@wsj.com)
1051 ET - U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 32 billion cubic feet last week, an increase that was roughly in line with the five-year average and with expectations. At 3,056 Bcf, gas in underground storage was 183 Bcf above the 2021-2025 average and 16 Bcf below the year-earlier level, the EIA reports. The weekly increase--the smallest so far of the current injection season--landed between the 30 Bcf average for the week and the 34 Bcf estimate in a WSJ survey of analysts. Nymex natural gas futures are up 0.5% at $2.940/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1050 ET - U.A.E. stocks end higher as major banks rise, while Saudi Arabia also gains, supported by index heavyweight Saudi Aramco. This comes as President Trump says the U.S. would hold Iran responsible for future attacks by Houthi militants after the group fired on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. First Abu Dhabi Bank and Emirates NBD, the largest listed banks on their respective exchanges, support gains in Abu Dhabi and Dubai after both lenders reported resilient earnings in 2Q, a period marked by war-related disruptions. Healthy loan growth and solid capital levels are improving confidence in the banking sector, says Mazen Abou Ismail, head of trading desk at FFA Private Bank Dubai. Abu Dhabi's benchmark index gains 0.7%, Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index rises 0.3%, the Dubai Financial Market General Index adds 0.2% and Qatar's QE Index falls 0.3%. (farhan.salehrafid@wsj.com)
1028 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are modestly higher ahead of the EIA's weekly inventory report, with the market also keeping watch on Tropical Storm Bertha as it makes its way along the Louisiana coast toward Texas. Analysts in a WSJ survey predict a 34 Bcf storage injection for last week, which would increase slightly the surplus over the five-year average. The EIA report is due at 10:30 a.m. ET. Nymex natural gas is up 0.1% at $2.929/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1003 ET - While European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde dodged all questions about what policymakers are likely to decide in September, the bank is clearly worrying about upside risks to inflation, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Claus Vistesen says in a note. After the decision to hold rates steady, Lagarde acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the path of energy prices since the June staff projections, he says. That reveals that the decision will to a large extent depend on the trajectory of oil prices and conditions in the Middle East. That points to a quarter-point rate increase in September as the ECB's inflation forecasts will remain well above the prewar path, supporting a shift in policy towards the upper end of neutral, Vistesen says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0948 ET - The European Central Bank signalled the possibility of a rate increase in the coming months during Thursday's decision, MFS Investment Management's Peter Goves says in a note. The ECB kept rates unchanged at 2.25% but said that the full impact of the energy shock from the Middle East conflict is yet to surface. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the decision was unanimous, although some governors wondered whether a rate hike should be considered. Traders are pricing in a 71% chance of a quarter-point ECB rate rise in September and are fully pricing this move by October, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0943 ET - Oil prices and Treasury yields are rising ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed, which was once navigating the appropriate time to possibly lower interest rates, is now increasingly focused on more inflation risks, such as higher energy prices and demand driven by artificial intelligence investment. Oil prices are climbing back to $100 a barrel as President Trump says the U.S. would hold Iran responsible for future attacks by Houthi militants after the group fired on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. Investors are pricing in the possibility that the Fed may need to raise rates in the future. The 10-year yield reaches its highest intraday level since January 2025. Still, according to the CME's FedWatch tool, only 35.8% of investors expect the Fed to raise rates next week.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
0942 ET - The euro is unlikely to fall much further after the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged Thursday, says Petros Pantzari at broker Monaxa in a note. By holding rates steady, the ECB is signalling that the energy price shock hasn't yet fully passed through to broader prices, he says. "The euro may initially struggle to rally because there was no fresh [rate] hike, but downside should remain contained as [ECB President Christine] Lagarde preserves the option to tighten again." The euro falls to a three-week low of $1.1367 after the ECB's announcement, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0934 ET - The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, along with negotiations that don't appear to making any headway in brokering a ceasefire, are pushing up grains again this morning. Most-active corn, soybean, and wheat futures on the CBOT are all at near-term highs, but may be encountering some technical resistance, says Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note. Bergman adds that the latest developments in the U.S.-Iran war are also driving grains higher, with Brent crude oil rising back to $100 a barrel. CBOT corn climbs 0.6%, soybeans are up 0.7%, and wheat rises 0.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0932 ET - If energy prices remain at the current elevated levels, the European Central Bank is likely to increase interest rates in September, Aberdeen Investments' Felix Feather says in a note. "An energy cost shock of that magnitude would be too great for the ECB to look through," he says. The ECB voted to keep interest rates on hold at 2.25% at Thursday's rate decision and said it would follow a data-dependent approach at future meetings. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 23, 2026 11:56 ET (15:56 GMT)
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