Aussies could be in for fresh fuel price shockA Treasury briefing paints a dire picture of the Middle East oil crisis, with more fuel supply at risk than during the first phase of the war.3 min read

7NEWS07-28 00:00

Oil markets are more vulnerable now than at the start of the Middle East conflict, Treasury has warned, amid expectations inflation is set to rise further.In a briefing provided to Treasurer Jim ...

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Credit: AAPIMAGE/MICK TSIKAS“Compared to the pre-MoU disruptions, the current situation affects more Gulf output, placing additional pressure on inventories to meet supply shortfalls,” Treasury said.Be the first to know: Add 7NEWS as your preferred news source on GoogleIn the May budget, Treasury included a worst-case scenario that showed what things could look like if the situation really deteriorated.In the downside scenario, oil prices would peak at $US200 a barrel in the September quarter and inflation would peak at 7.25 per cent in the 12 months to December.Chalmers said the recent escalation in the conflict posed a “substantial threat to global inflation”.“There is still so much uncertainty about this war and its ongoing costs and consequences,” he said in a statement.Headline inflation eased to four per cent annually in March, due in part to lower-than-expected oil prices and the government’s 32c a litre cut to the fuel excise.But the trimmed mean, which the Reserve Bank pays more attention to, was still too high at 3.6 per cent, HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said.The trimmed mean for the June quarter is expected to nudge even higher in figures to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday.The Reserve Bank, which will hand down its next rates decision on August 11, could look at those numbers and decide that more tightening is needed to get inflation under control.“The key questions are: is the growth downturn under way enough to believe that inflation is expected to head back to target soon; and will it be soon enough, given core inflation has been above target for four years already?” Mr Bloxham said.“The first question is a tricky calibration exercise; the second is a judgment call about the RBA board’s level of patience.“Both are uncertain.”‘Over the moon’ Aussie banishes haunting memories to win gold3 min read‘Heartbroken’ Aussie’s medal bid cruelled by injury: ‘Felt a crunch’1 min read","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.46.0","shortVersion":"4.46.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2654025368","isCrawlerRequest":true}