The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1600 ET - Oil prices eased pressure on bond yields ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision next week. Business activity in the U.S. private sector continued to expand to an eight-month high in July, a monthly survey from S&P Global said. Meanwhile, the rate of new home sales rose in June. In addition to the Fed's July interest rate meeting next week, markets will get a read on a slew of U.S. economic data, including second quarter GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index. The 2-year yield ended at 4.328%. The 10-year yield ended at 4.678%. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1318 ET - The Bank of Canada is "much more likely to stay on hold" as officials try to strike a balance between the sharp rise in energy prices and the escalation of US-Canada trade tensions, says Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. In his week-ending note, he says BMO is leaning toward that the newly proposed 50% tariff on certain Canadian goods will not be imposed as scheduled on Aug. 19. Nevertheless, Porter says the tariff threat serves as "loud reminder that trade will act as a drag on growth," particularly for Canada. He says BOC will likely exhibit patience, partly because its preferred gauges of core CPI sit below 2% for the first time in 6 years. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1237 ET - Economists at National Bank of Canada are unsure whether Canadian households can keep up the present pace of consumption. Statistics Canada signals that retail sales are set to climb for six straight months when official June data are released. NBC notes annual inflation-adjusted compensation growth in 2Q rose at its slowest pace since the start of the post-pandemic recovery. The firm says the normalization of wage growth, stagnant population growth and a resurgence in energy prices are likely to eating into households spending power.Households may turn out to be "the weak link in the economy," the firm says. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1234 ET - Ethereum is off 1.3% to $1,861, after climbing to around $1,950 earlier this week. Much like bitcoin, ethereum has seen a return of capital coming from ETFs. "After a prolonged period of net outflows, these funds are now heading toward a third consecutive week of positive net inflows," says Linh Tran of XS.com in a note. Ethereum ETFs have posted five straight days of net inflows, according to data from CoinGlass --but the macroeconomic environment continues to pressure riskier assets. "In this environment, capital tends to favor cash, the U.S. dollar, and defensive assets rather than expanding aggressively into the cryptocurrency market," says Tran. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1139 ET - Cryptocurrency investors were increasingly optimistic this week about the passage of the Clarity Act, which supported prices for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. But that support has faded as the odds for the passage of the Clarity Act have decreased, says Alex Schmidt of CoinShares in a note. "This week demonstrated, in both directions, that the market is… trading the headline," says Schmidt. Decreasing the expectations around the passage of the bill is opposition from Senate Democrats over ethical concerns. Bitcoin is down 1.7% to just above $64,000, according to data from LSEG. Ethereum falls 1.2% to $1,862, XRP is down 1.8% to $1.09, and solana is down 2.8% to $73.94. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1044 ET - Companies issued a 21% bigger volume of euro-denominated sustainable bonds, known as environmental, social and governance $(ESG)$ bonds, in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period a year ago, LBBW's Matthias Schell says in a note. Supply of green bonds reached 53.7 billion euros ($61.1 billion) in the first half, a record high for any half-year period, Schell says. "The positive trend in ESG bonds is likely to continue," he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1043 ET - BofA analysts expect the Fed will stay on hold next week in a target range of 3.5-3.75%, but the spike in oil prices makes it a close call. "Chair Warsh faces a difficult choice," they say in a note. "Not hiking could challenge the Fed's credibility on inflation. But raising rates would go against his framework of looking through supply shocks," they say. They still expect three 25 basis point hikes in September, October and December.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1007 ET - The Swiss franc falls to another 13-month low against the dollar as the recent jump in energy prices boosts expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The market sees a 34% chance that the Fed will raise rates on Wednesday and is fully pricing a move by September, according to LSEG. This weighs on the low-yielding franc where markets see little chance of the Swiss National Bank raising rates any time soon. The dollar rises 0.2% on the day to as high as 0.8184 francs. The euro rises 0.1% to 0.9301 francs, having reached a six-month high of 0.9316 Thursday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1003 ET - Bitcoin is down 1.1%, but at around $64,000 it remains elevated versus the multi-year lows it had found last month. Supporting this is the slow return of demand from ETFs after a steady streak of capital outflows. Prior to yesterday, bitcoin ETFs posted seven consecutive days of net inflows, giving prices a boost to nearly $67,000. While these are good signs for bitcoin investors, the token's fundamentals are fragile, says analysts with Coinbase Research in a note. "At next week's FOMC meeting, the Fed's guidance and rate decision will be crucial," says Coinbase. "If the Fed holds and long-term yields remain stable, we think bitcoin can remain resilient." Other major cryptocurrencies are lower, with ethereum down 1.1% to $1,864. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0953 ET - Emerging market debt provides attractive investment opportunities, especially where real yields remain high, BlackRock's Michel Aubenas says in a note. "Parts of Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa stand out in a more benign global rates environment," he says. If energy prices fall, this could lower the prospects of central banks raising interest rates and improve risk sentiment for emerging-market assets, Aubenas says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0950 ET - Sterling and euro were little moved by Friday's better-than-expected U.K. and eurozone purchasing managers' surveys as the data don't reflect the latest surge in energy prices, Monex Europe's Barry van der Laan says in a note. Both surveys were conducted between July 9 and 22, before Brent crude surged above $100 on the Middle East conflict, he says. "Had investors believed these surveys fundamentally changed the outlook for growth and inflation, both currencies should have responded positively." August PMIs and the next inflation releases carry more significance. They could show whether the renewed energy-price shock is impacting business confidence, pricing behaviors and activity, he says. Sterling and the euro are little changed at $1.3317 and $1.1371, respectively.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0945 ET - The dollar's strength looks set to persist until the U.S. and Iran can agree another ceasefire and energy prices come lower, ING analysts say in a note. A de-escalation in the conflict and a resumption in energy flows would cause oil prices to drop and U.S. interest rate rise expectations to unwind, they say. Should the conflict escalate and oil prices rise further, inflation would rise sharply and the Federal Reserve would need to respond by raising rates. The euro could fall below $1.13 while the dollar could rise to 165 yen, they say. The euro last trades down 0.1% at $1.1370 and the dollar is flat at 163.84 yen. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 24, 2026 16:00 ET (20:00 GMT)
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