Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0010 ET - The probability of a Fed-rate increase are being priced unusually high by markets, notes Pictet Wealth Management. "While we cannot entirely rule out the risk of a surprise hike, current market pricing looks too high," says senior U.S. economist Xiao Cui in a note. Cui reckons the latest U.S. inflation data and Fedspeak reinforce expectations for the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% this week. However, officials continue to view inflation as the more dominant policy risk, leaving the door open to tightening as early as September, she says. Cui also sees the likelihood of two dissents in favor of a 25bp rate hike from regional Fed presidents Logan and Hammack, with a possible third from Kashkari. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)
1019 ET - U.S. businesses in Europe are starting to see a more stable transatlantic trade and investment relationship, according to a survey published on Monday. The American Chamber of Commerce to the EU says that 51% of companies now expect the bloc's trade and investment relationship with the U.S. to remain stable over the next year, while 21% expect it to improve. It also says that 28% expect the relationship to worsen, down from 46% in September 2025 and 89% in January 2025. The relationship between the U.S. and the EU has come under strain in recent years amid tariff and trade negotiations. (edith.hancock@wsj.com)
0813 ET - Copper prices rise in afternoon trading as a pause in fighting between the U.S. and Iran pushes oil lower, easing concerns over inflation pressures and global economic growth. Three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange are up 1.2% to $13,769.50 a metric ton. Focus in recent weeks has been on potential new U.S. import tariffs and Chinese demand. "In China, the premium paid for imported copper over local supplies in China rose to $100 a ton, up from $20 a ton in late January, a sign of strong demand," ANZ analysts say. "The market is also bracing for the possibility that the Trump administration imposes levies on imports of copper, which continues to attract increasing volumes of metal into the U.S." Meanwhile, a deadly storm in Chile disrupted production at major copper mines, adding further supply concerns. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0538 ET - Markets should expect a low-growth, high-inflation global environment after the U.S. imposed new tariffs on key trading partners last week, CG Asset Management's Emma Moriarty says in a note. The U.S. on Friday announced new tariffs on 60 trading partners including the European Union and China. The tariffs take effect against a backdrop of a global energy shock and increased supply-chain disruptions, Moriarty says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0334 ET - Gold prices rise after the U.S. paused military strikes against Iran, sending Brent crude below $90 a barrel and easing concerns over inflationary pressures. In early European trading, New York gold futures are up 0.9% t $4,107.10 a troy ounce. "The easing in geopolitical tensions has reduced inflation concerns and could lessen pressure on the Fed to tighten policy further, providing near-term support for gold ahead of this week's closely watched Fed meeting," says Soojin Kim, analyst at MUFG. With a hold largely priced in, investors will focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks for clues on the policy outlook and the likely path of interest rates for the remainder of the year.(giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0305 ET - Bitcoin rises as a pause in fighting between the U.S. and Iran improves risk sentiment. President Trump has delayed major military escalation against Iran to allow for diplomacy, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing U.S. officials. Continued negotiations, lower energy prices and reduced military escalation improve liquidity conditions, lower inflation fears and support risk appetite, Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam says in a note. However, bitcoin remains vulnerable given recent outflows in spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, he says. Any renewed attacks in the Middle East could send bitcoin to as low as $60,000, he says. Bitcoin rises 1.3% to $65,440, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0136 ET - Malaysia's tariff outlook could remain uncertain as the U.S. continues its excess-capacity investigation, CIMB economists Chew Khai Yen and Michelle Chia say in a note. They expect the probe to result in additional Section 301 tariffs, potentially lifting Malaysia's headline tariff rate back toward the 15%-19% level originally proposed under the U.S. reciprocal tariff plan. The newly effective 10% Section 301 forced-labor tariff has had little impact, as broad exemptions reduced the share of Malaysian exports to the U.S. subject to the levy to 31.9% from 33.0%, lowering the trade-weighted effective tariff to 5.1% from 5.2%, they add. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 28, 2026 00:10 ET (04:10 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments