Waste feedstock trade reroutes as US soybean oil biofuel demand keeps climbing

Fastmarkets07-28

The global waste-feedstock map is being redrawn, and the evidence is already in the customs record rather than just in forecasts. US imports of used cooking oil fell 38 percent year on year, led by a ...

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US imports of used cooking oil fell 38 percent year on year, led by a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/waste-feedstock-trade-reroutes-as-us-soybean-oil-biofuel-demand-keeps-climbing/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fastmarkets_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Waste feedstock trade reroutes as US soybean oil biofuel demand keeps climbing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWaste feedstock trade reroutes as US soybean oil biofuel demand keeps climbing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-28 12:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/waste-feedstock-trade-reroutes-as-us-soybean-oil-biofuel-demand-keeps-climbing/><strong>Fastmarkets</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The global waste-feedstock map is being redrawn, and the evidence is already in the customs record rather than just in forecasts. US imports of used cooking oil fell 38 percent year on year, led by a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/waste-feedstock-trade-reroutes-as-us-soybean-oil-biofuel-demand-keeps-climbing/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"UGA","symbol_name":"United States Gasoline Fund LP","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/waste-feedstock-trade-reroutes-as-us-soybean-oil-biofuel-demand-keeps-climbing/","article_id":"2654088320","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"fastmarkets_highlight","url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/waste-feedstock-trade-reroutes-as-us-soybean-oil-biofuel-demand-keeps-climbing/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2654088320","pubTimestamp":1785211200,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"fastmarkets_highlight","name":"Fastmarkets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Customs data show Chinese used cooking oil pivoting to Europe and US buyers broadening their tallow supply base, while the July WASDE confirms biofuel will take a majority of US soybean oil use in 2026/27.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"fastmarkets.com","property":["earning"],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"UGA":"United States Gasoline Fund LP","GUSH":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil &Gas Exp. & Prod. 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Bear 2X Shares","DIG":"二倍做多美国油气指数","VDE":"Vanguard Energy ETF","USE":"USCF Energy Commodity Strategy Absolute Return Fund","USO":"美国原油ETF","DBO":"原油ETF-PowerShares","USL":"United States 12 Month Oil Fund LP","FTXN":"First Trust Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF","PXJ":"Invesco Oil & Gas Services ETF","USOI":"ETRACS Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETN","DBC":"商品指数ETF-PowerShares DB","SOYB":"Teucrium Soybean Fund","MOO":"农业指数ETF-Market Vectors","OILK":"ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil ETF","CRAK":"VanEck Oil Refiners ETF","DRLL":"Strive U.S. Energy ETF","DBE":"能源商品ETF-PowerShares","BNO":"美国布伦特原油基金有限合伙企业","IEO":"iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas","FUE":"ELEMENTS Linked to the MLCX Biofuels Index Total Return","OILT":"Texas Oil Index ETF","XES":"SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF","IXC":"全球能源业ETF-iShares","OILU":"MicroSectors Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. 3x Leveraged ETN","ERX":"二倍做多能源ETF-Direxion","RJA":"农业指数ETF-ELEMENTS","WTIU":"MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETN","XLE":"SPDR能源指数ETF","BWET":"BREAKWAVE TANKER SHIPPING ETF","FBZ":"First Trust Brazil AlphaDEX Fund","PDBA":"INVESCO AGRICULTURE COMMODITY STRATEGY NO K-1 ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","XOP":"油气开采指数ETF-SPDR S&P","PXE":"Invesco Energy Exploration & Production ETF"},"translate_title":"随着美国豆油生物燃料需求不断攀升，废料原料贸易改变路线","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"FUE":1.5,"XES":1.5,"IEO":1.5,"BNO":1.5,"BWET":1.5,"CRAK":1.5,"OIH":1.5,"ERX":1.5,"VDE":1.5,"DIG":1.5,"DUG":1.5,"USOI":1.5,"USE":1.5,"UGA":1.5,"XLE":1.5,"DBO":1.5,"DRIP":1.5,"USL":1.5,"OILT":1.5,"XOP":1.5,"CORX":1.5,"DRLL":1.5,"RJA":1.5,"USO":1.5,"DBE":1.5,"FTXN":1.5,"TILL":1.5,"PXE":1.5,"FBZ":1.5,"GUSH":1.5,"OILU":1.5,"WTIU":1.5,"DBC":1.5,"SOYB":1.5,"MOO":1.5,"PDBA":1.5,"OILK":1.5,"IXC":1.5,"PXJ":1.5},"content_text":"The global waste-feedstock map is being redrawn, and the evidence is already in the customs record rather than just in forecasts. US imports of used cooking oil fell 38 percent year on year, led by a 67 percent collapse in Chinese-origin volume from 1,124 thousand tonnes to 368 thousand tonnes. Malaysia, up 38 percent, and Vietnam, up 186 percent, backfilled only part of the gap, so total US UCO supply from imports still contracted.\nCrucially, the molecules did not disappear. China’s total used cooking oil (UCO) exports rose 7 percent over the same period. What changed is the destination mix: flows to the US fell 61 percent while shipments to the Netherlands more than doubled, up 105 percent, making it China’s largest single destination. The displaced supply is now pressuring European and Southeast Asian markets instead.\nTallow: the mix broadens while volume holds\nUS inedible tallow imports held essentially flat, up 1 percent, but the origin mix reshuffled. Brazil, the most trade-policy-exposed origin, fell 23 percent from 350 thousand tonnes to 269 thousand tonnes, while Australia rose 24 percent, the UK jumped 1,561 percent from a small base and Ireland gained 217 percent. US buyers are diversifying away from concentration risk without giving up volume.\nBrazil, for its part, is hedging. Its tallow exports remain 88 percent US-bound, but shipments to the US eased 14 percent from 347 thousand tonnes to 297 thousand tonnes, and entirely new flows opened to the Netherlands and Belgium from a standing start. That looks like early optionality-building while bilateral trade talks continue.\nGeographically, the import flows concentrate at three gateways: San Francisco on the West Coast, which is tallow-led at 301 thousand tonnes, and the Gulf ports of Port Arthur and New Orleans, which handle used cooking oil at 215 and 178 thousand tonnes respectively. Detroit and the northern land borders handle most of the balance.\nThe economics: a policy-set RIN with a crush-driven wiggle\nOn the economics side, Fastmarkets’ econometric work shows the D4 RIN behaves as a policy-set level with a crush-driven wiggle rather than a mean-reverting spread. As the HOBO spread widens, the D4 RIN falls, with a beta of roughly negative 0.63 and a correlation of negative 0.38 in daily changes. Causality runs one way: HOBO Granger-causes the RIN at a p-value of 0.01, while the reverse test fails at 0.18. The reaction is contemporaneous, peaking at lag zero, with no exploitable lead or lag.\nPolicy resets the level. At a common HOBO spread, the RIN has re-based from 0.69 dollars under the blender’s tax credit regime to 0.88 dollars under 45Z and 1.56 dollars under OBBBA, with Chow tests confirming structural breaks at each policy line.\nFeedstocks do not respond uniformly, because the single D4 RIN is feedstock-blind and differentiation comes through price and the carbon-intensity-linked credit stack. \nWhen 45Z tied the credit to carbon intensity in 2025, waste fats moved from parity to a premium over soybean oil: UCO at plus 7.6 cents per pound, tallow plus 5.4 and distillers corn oil plus 6.1. OBBBA’s removal of soy’s ILUC penalty compressed those premiums in 2026, to plus 5.1, plus 3.7 and plus 4.7 cents respectively, but did not close them. Stacked with LCFS, the low-CI edge remains wide, with UCO earning roughly 120 cents per gallon of carbon credit versus about 83 for soybean oil.\nAcross the barrel, delivered feedstock costs currently range from 538 cents per gallon for Brazilian tallow and 566 for soybean oil up to 669 for Chinese UCO, with domestic tallow at 615, UCO at 604, distillers corn oil at 608 and canola oil at 631. Imported feedstocks also forgo the 45Z credit, so they lean more heavily on the RIN and LCFS legs of the revenue stack.\nThe demand backdrop: soybean oil goes majority-biofuel\nUnderpinning all of this is relentless growth in US soybean oil biofuel demand. The July WASDE left the soybean oil balance sheet unchanged from June, but the trajectory is the story: biofuel use rises from 11.8 billion pounds in 2024/25 to 14.6 billion in 2025/26 and 17.8 billion in 2026/27. That takes biofuel’s share of US soybean oil use to 53.7 percent, up from 40 percent just two years earlier.\nThe rest of the balance sheet reflects the squeeze. Soybean oil exports are projected to fall to 400 million pounds in 2026/27 from 1,000 million in the current year, food, feed and other industrial use gives ground, and the average price forecast sits at 70 cents per pound versus 64 cents in 2025/26. Even with no July revision, domestic soybean oil stays structurally tight, reinforcing the demand pull that is reshaping waste-feedstock trade flows worldwide.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"express","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.46.0","shortVersion":"4.46.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2654088320","isCrawlerRequest":true}