SpaceX's earnings report next week could unleash a further wave of selling, as some insiders will soon be able to unload shares
SpaceX's Starship rocket lifted off from Starbase, Texas, for its 13th flight on July 24. It marked the second flight of the V3 Starship and Super Heavy vehicles.
SpaceX pulled off its latest Starship flight test to a near-perfect degree, in the words of one analyst - but the successful launch wasn't enough to reverse the stock's steady decline.
On Friday, Elon Musk's space-technology company launched its megarocket for the 13th time, after a handful of delays had pushed the mission back by about a week. According to SpaceX $(SPCX)$, all major objectives were completed on the flight, which was also the second involving the third-generation version of Starship.
Twenty Starlink V3 satellites were deployed and briefly communicated with SpaceX's existing constellation of spacecraft before burning up; a single Raptor engine was reignited in space, and the upper stage of Starship was able to have a "soft" splashdown in the Indian Ocean. It also gave SpaceX "all the heat-shield data we needed and then some," Musk said in a post on X.
"We believe Flight 13 could lead to a Starship catch attempt at the pad on its next flight test, which is one of the biggest milestones to achieve full reusability and a high launch cadence," KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock said in a Sunday note as he praised the "near perfection" of the test.
However, there was one "material issue" with the flight, noted bullish Bernstein analysts. Starship's Super Heavy booster successfully carried out the high-thrust portion of a boost-back burn with all 33 Raptor 3 engines, before it ended the burn early, according to SpaceX. When it tried to relight 13 engines for a landing burn, only some turned on, leading to the booster having a hard splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico.
"This was not ready for a landing on the launch pad. SpaceX has landed and flown again the Starship booster," Bernstein's Douglas Harned said in a note to clients. "While all other aspects of the booster's operation appeared to be a success, the landing was not."
Starship, Harned noted, is key to unlocking the out-of-this-world valuations that some Wall Street analysts think could be in SpaceX's future. Making the vehicle fully reusable will better allow the company to improve its Starlink satellite-internet service and put data centers in orbit.
"Friday's Starship launch was a key step toward that goal," Harned added.
Still, SpaceX shares have continued to decline. On Monday, they fell as much as 4% to trade at a new low, while SpaceX bonds were also hit hard. The stock's market capitalization has dropped by more than $1 trillion since its June 16 high.
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Possibly adding to the pressure on the shares is next week's earnings report, which will be SpaceX's first as a public company. When it reports second-quarter earnings on Aug. 4, SpaceX will not only be providing a financial update to investors but also opening the door to a potential mass-selling event.
Up to 37% of insider shares subject to a 180-day lockup schedule could be released for trading next month, with the first tranche of as much as 911.5 million shares set to be freed up on Aug. 6. Stock held by Musk and select other insiders, which together account for over 63% of pre-IPO outstanding shares, is subject to a longer lockup.
Shares of Tesla $(TSLA)$, which reported earnings last week, were also slipping on Monday by more than 1%. That company's spending plans and its lukewarm commentary about its artificial-intelligence initiatives appeared to concern investors. Tesla's stock is down more than 30% on a year-to-date basis and has erased all gains made over the last 12 months.
On Tesla's earnings call with investors last week, Musk was asked about the possibility of Tesla and SpaceX merging. He responded by touting the companies' "overlap" and collaboration, before acknowledging that he can't discuss corporate combinations on an earnings call and allowing Tesla's general counsel to step in.
-William Gavin
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July 27, 2026 12:36 ET (16:36 GMT)
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