Singapore economy should continue to expand at 'firm pace' in second half of 2026: MAS

The Edge Singapore07-27

The resilience is supported by the sustained strength of global artificial intelligence (AI)-related demand, says the central bank.The Singapore economy should continue to expand at a "firm pace" in ...

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The resilience is supported by the sustained strength of global artificial intelligence (AI)-related demand, the central bank adds.\n\"The global economy has remained resilient notwithstanding the Middle East conflict and the resulting oil price shock,\" says MAS. \"Alternative energy supplies and inventory drawdowns have helped energy markets rebalance at less elevated price levels than initially feared, limiting the drag on growth.\"\n\"At the same time, the continued strength of the global tech cycle has provided an important tailwind to regional economies integrated into technology supply chains,\" MAS adds.\nCompared to its last policy review in April, the global growth outlook has improved \"modestly\", even though uncertainties surrounding energy markets and trade policies remain, MAS continues.\nMAS, which announced that it expects core inflation to step up and remain elevated at this morning's monetary policy statement (MPS), reiterated that it expects core inflation to remain higher for longer before easing \"discernibly\" in the second half of next year in the macroeconomic review.\nCore and CPI-all items inflation (or headline inflation) are projected to average between 1.5% to 2.5% in 2026. Core inflation is likely to increase in July following the higher electricity and gas tariffs and remain elevated into 2027. Inflation should ease in the latter half of next year along with a gradual retreat in global energy price.\nThat said, MAS warned that inflation could pick up \"more strongly than expected\" if energy prices resurgence.\nHigher global AI-related activity and greater spillovers to adjacent domestic industries could also \"generate firmer demand conditions\", leading to more persistent inflationary pressures.\nMAS also warned, in its macroeconomic review, that it sees downside risks such as an unexpected tightning in financial conditions or a pullback in AI-related investment that could weigh on the sustainability of GDP growth, and in turn inflation.\nOn its decision to increase the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) within a policy band for the second time this year, MAS notes that Singapore's GDP expanded above expectations since its tightening move in April. The positive output gap is also now expected to widen instead of narrow. Imported cost pressures are expected to persist as well. Furthermore, core inflation is expected to rise and remain elevated for several quarters till the second half of next year.\n\"Given the uncertainties around the outlook, this calibrated adjustment builds on the policy tightening in April,\" says April. \"The rate of appreciation of the S$NEER policy band is assessed to be appropriate for ensuring medium-term price stability.\"\nAnalysts say\nOxford Economics' Sheana Yue says the central bank's latest tightening shows its focus on medium-term inflation risks rather than recent inflation outturns.\n\"A stronger growth outlook should keep the output gap positive for longer, supporting a restrictive policy stance despite a likely growth slowdown in [the second half of the year],\" says Yue in a July 27 note.\nWhile inflation has remained benign so far, Yue sees higher crude and refined fuel prices likely feeding through into domestic fuel, freight and imported goods costs, which may keep inflation risks tilted to the upside.\nTo UOB's Jester Koh, the \"key surprise\" to MAS's latest decision was the adoption of a \"more calibrated approach\" as opposed to the tightening itself. Koh had highlighted the risks of a 50 basis point (bps) slope steepening in a July 23 note. The analyst estimates that the central bank had, instead, steepened the slope by 25 bps to 1.25% per annum (p.a.).\n\"Given the heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties (resulting in energy price swings), in our view, MAS may prefer to make more incremental adjustments to the S$NEER settings to achieve greater monetary policy marksmanship, rather than either conducting off-cycle moves (the frequency of MAS meetings was already increased to four times a year in January/April/July/October from 2024, compared with twice annually in April/October previously), or delivering greater-than-necessary monetary tightening, at the risk of having to subsequently unwind those moves should geopolitical tensions ease and energy prices moderate, resulting in a lower-than-projected medium-term core inflation trajectory,\" says Koh.\nThe tone of the July monetary policy statement, he adds, leans towards a hawkish policy although the overall signalling may be interpreted as dovish given the incremental approach.\nOCBC Group Research's Selena Ling sees the balance of risk in the July monetary policy statement as \"distinctly different\" from that of April's policy given that there was no change to the MAS headline and core inflation forecast for 2026. The growth prognosis also remains upbeat, Ling notes.\nInstead, the latest move by MAS should be seen as a \"policy fine-tuning\" rather than a regime shift.\n\"The April policy tightening was likely reactive to the onset of the US-Iran war, whereas today's move is positioned as honing the tool against the core inflation which has yet to peak and is only expected to peak in coming months and subside only gradually after 1Q2027,\" Ling writes.\nBased on headline inflation of 1.5% and an output gap of 0%, Bank of America's Claudio Piron has calculated that the MAS's NEER policy slope is at 1% and is \"appropriate\" for 2026.\nThat said, based on a risks of an inflation rate of 2% in 2027 with a positive output gap, Piron estimates a policy slope of 1.5% by the end of the year.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.47.1","shortVersion":"4.47.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2654476040","isCrawlerRequest":true}