Shoppers are especially focused on value and spacing out purchases as they shop for back to school this summer, but overall spending is still expected to reach record levels.
That's according to the latest National Retail Federation's survey of consumers. The NRF said that back-to-school spending is expected to hit $146.8 billion this year -- more than spending for Mother's Day, Father's Day, Easter, and the Super Bowl combined.
Families with children in kindergarten through 12th grade are expected to spend a record $43.3 billion this year, while spending by college students will reach a record $103.5 billion, the highest level since at least 2003.
NRF found that 62% of consumers had started their back-to-school shopping by early July, but many shoppers are waiting for bigger discounts. About half of shoppers surveyed are planning to buy only the essentials for the start of the school year and replenish as needed throughout the year.
"Affordability is a concern for families and a top priority for retailers as we enter the back-to-school season," said NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews. "Shoppers are keeping value front and center as they look for ways to make their dollars go further."
He noted that despite low sentiment and high gas prices, "over the course of the year, we've also seen record per-person spend in almost every spending event this year," including an average of $284.25 on Mother's Day, $226.58 on Father's Day, and $199.78 on Valentine's Day, he added. "When it comes to spending on family and loved ones, consumers are really treating these events as essential spending."
About 61% of those surveyed said they are seeing higher prices for back to school. Of those who haven't yet bought at least half of their back-to-school items, 46% are waiting for the best deals, and 23% are spreading out their spending to manage their budgets, NRF said. Seventeen percent said prices are too high, and 12% said they are "trying to figure out how to pay for what I need."
More than half of those surveyed, or 54%, said they shopped during June sales events such as Amazon.com 's Prime Day, Walmart Deals, and Target Circle Deal Days. About half plan to buy online, with others planning to shop at department stores (47%), discount stores (44%), and clothing stores (39%).
Barron's has noted that the consumer discretionary sector, which was supposed to thrive during the year of the consumer, quickly fizzled in the face of higher gas prices and is now the worst-performing sector this year.
"Even during challenging economic years, back to school is a super resilient consumer spending event," Allison Zeller, NRF's vice president, consumer and industry insights, said last week. "Within the retail industry, and those who are tracking it closely, it's also regarded as the last major read that we get on the consumer before we head into the winter holidays."
Other factors contributing to the growing hesitancy among shoppers: Stalled wage growth, higher inflation, rising gas prices, and smaller savings. The levels of credit card debt and credit card delinquencies are both "near record highs," Mathews said.
"The good news for retailers and the economy is frankly, that when it comes to prioritizing how they're spending their hard-earned dollars, consumers are telling us that they're not willing to compromise on spending for school needs for their families," he said. Shoppers say they're cutting back on other spending areas (37%), using buy-now, pay-later options (20%), or willing to work overtime hours if needed (17%).
As consumers expand the range of places they are shopping for bargains and getting pickier about where to spend, retailers are touting their savings.
Walmart says it is offering its lowest prices since 2019 on 14 of the most popular school supplies found on classroom lists nationwide, with items costing as little as 25 cents.
Costco Wholesale is offering savings on backpacks, lunchboxes, laptops, and dorm room items, reminding shoppers that they can earn cash back rewards for using their Costco Anywhere Visa Cards by Citi.
And Five Below, which just opened its 2,000th store in LaGrange, Ga., says its assortment of items priced between $1 and $5 "makes it easy to explore amazing new products and say 'Yes!' to fun without breaking the bank."
Spending for students in kindergarten through high school is expected to average $863.86 on back-to-school items this year, up from $858.07 in 2025, according to the NRF.
Shoppers for this age plan to spend an average of $293.11 on electronics, $250.29 on clothing and accessories, $174.01 on shoes, and $146.45 on school supplies, according to the survey.
College student spending is expected to average $1,437.79, up from last year's $1,325.85 and above the previous record of $1,366.95 in 2023.
"The percentage of consumers planning to purchase electronics has increased significantly this year, while several other categories are also attracting more shoppers than previous years," Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said.
People plan to spend an average of $341.95 on electronics for college students, followed by $194.00 for dorm or apartment furnishings, $182.39 on clothing and accessories, $153.91 on food, and $133.34 on personal care items.
Spending on technology has expanded four percentage points to 34% as a "share of backpack" among families of K-12 students, but fewer shoppers are planning laptop and tablet purchases this year (46%, compared with 50% last year).
Tech spending by college students and their families has increased this year as users trade up for faster, more powerful, AI-enabled laptops that are also more expensive, Mathews said.
Twenty states now offer temporary sales tax holidays to give shoppers another way to maximize their back-to-school dollars, but the nonprofit Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy's analysis of those programs found that they provide little lasting benefit from high prices while draining nearly $600 million from state and local budgets.
"Sales tax holidays offer the appearance of tax relief without delivering much of the substance," said Miles Trinidad, ITEP State Analyst and author of the brief. Sales tax holidays that only apply to a limited number of purchases "are brief, poorly targeted, and expensive -- and higher-income households are often better positioned to benefit than the families lawmakers claim to be helping," because wealthier households can shift the timing of back-to-school shopping, while families living paycheck to paycheck can't.
"Tax cuts just aren't the answer to the affordability crises that people are facing," ITEP Deputy Director Jon Whiten told Barron's. "One-time tax breaks -- whether state sales tax holidays or gas tax suspensions -- at most help around the edges but have the dangerous downside of undermining the revenue base, leading to tax hikes, service cuts, or both down the road."
Write to Janet H. Cho at janet.cho@dowjones.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 26, 2026 15:48 ET (19:48 GMT)
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