Vegoils price commentary: CME soyoil futures down on sharply lower energy prices; CPO at highest in over a week

Fastmarkets07-28

The new third-month September CPO futures contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives gained 2.07% to close at 4,578 ringgit ($1,128) per tonne, extending gains from the midday when it closed at 4,529 ...

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On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange declining crude oil weighed on soyoil futures, which fell sharply in the session.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"fastmarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LW":"Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.","DTO":"二倍做空原油ETN(德银)","USOI":"ETRACS Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETN","RJN":"ELEMENTS Linked to the Rogers International Commodity Index - Energy Total Return","USL":"United States 12 Month Oil Fund LP","CME":"芝加哥商品交易所","USE":"USCF Energy Commodity Strategy Absolute Return Fund","PXJ":"Invesco Oil & Gas Services ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","FFLV":"Fidelity Fundamental Large Cap Value ETF","COMB":"GraniteShares Bloomberg Commodity Broad Strategy No K-1 ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","AVIE":"Avantis Inflation Focused Equity ETF","BNO":"美国布伦特原油基金有限合伙企业","PDBC":"Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF","FNDX":"Schwab Fundamental U.S. Large Company ETF","ASGM":"Virtus AlphaSimplex Global Macro ETF","RAAX":"VanEck Real Assets ETF","CMCI":"Vaneck Cmci Commodity Strategy Etf","IXC":"全球能源业ETF-iShares","DBO":"原油ETF-PowerShares","VDE":"Vanguard Energy ETF","XLE":"SPDR能源指数ETF","OIH":"石油服务ETF","CMDT":"PIMCO Commodity Strategy Active ETF","VAW":"Vanguard Materials ETF","ASO":"Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc.","ACOM":"Harbor Active Commodity ETF","DBC":"商品指数ETF-PowerShares DB","XOP":"油气开采指数ETF-SPDR S&P","UGA":"United States Gasoline Fund LP","GCC":"智慧树连续商品指数基金","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","YALL":"God Bless America ETF","SDCI":"USCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund","IVE":"标普500价值指数ETF-iShares","DBE":"能源商品ETF-PowerShares","VOOV":"Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF","IEO":"iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas","ERX":"二倍做多能源ETF-Direxion","OILK":"ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil ETF","GSG":"iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust","BWET":"BREAKWAVE TANKER SHIPPING ETF","OILT":"Texas Oil Index ETF","HGER":"Harbor Commodity All-Weather Strategy ETF","GUSH":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil &Gas Exp. & Prod. 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Bear 2X Shares"},"translate_title":"Vegoils 价格评论：芝加哥商品交易所大豆油期货因能源价格大幅下跌而下跌；CPO 创一周多来最高","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"XOP":0.9,"ASO":1,"CMCI":1.5,"USL":0.9,"HGER":1.5,"GSG":1.5,"DRIP":0.9,"DWT":1.5,"IXC":0.9,"SDCI":1.5,"ACOM":1.5,"OIH":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"CME":1.5,"RAAX":1.5,"GUSH":0.9,"FFLV":1.5,"DBO":0.9,"VAW":1.5,"OILU":0.9,"BWET":0.9,"YALL":1.5,"OILT":0.9,"OND":1,"VOOV":1.5,"DTO":1.5,"VDE":0.9,"USE":0.9,"UGA":0.9,"USOI":0.9,"DBC":0.9,"FAAR":1.5,"IEO":0.9,"RJN":1.5,"XLE":0.9,"AVIE":1.5,"FNDX":1.5,"PXJ":0.9,"OILK":0.9,"ASGM":1.5,"USO":0.9,"IVE":1.5,"COMB":1.5,"ERX":0.9,"CMDT":1.5,"DBE":0.9,"BNO":0.9,"GCC":1.5,"PDBC":1.5,"LW":1},"content_text":"The new third-month September CPO futures contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives gained 2.07% to close at 4,578 ringgit ($1,128) per tonne, extending gains from the midday when it closed at 4,529 ringgit per tonne, and after trading between 4,464-4,585 ringgit per tonne.\nCPO defied weakness in crude oil, with the latter a major influence on palm oil prices in recent months following the US-Iran conflict since late February, and as both WTI and Brent crude futures were trading lower for most of Asia hours around $80 per barrel.\nWeaker crude oil prices typically exert pressure on palm oil prices, with palm oil also used as feedstock for biodiesel production.\nThe recovery in CPO was supported by expectations of a strong El Niño weather phenomenon in the second half of 2026, according to forecasts from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology on Tuesday, which will generally bring hot and dry weather to Southeast Asia, and likely affect palm oil production negatively in the medium to long term going into 2027.\nAdditionally, market participants are also awaiting Indonesia’s announcement on its B50 biodiesel program, with an energy ministry official reiterating the planned July 1 start according to local media reports on Tuesday, pending ministerial decrees including the revised allocation for 2026.\nThe energy ministry had earlier projected the revised allocation to be 17.6 billion liters under a move to B50, up from the initial allocation of 15.65 billion liters.  \nBiodiesel in Indonesia\nHigher biodiesel blending in Indonesia could see lower export availability from the world’s largest palm oil producer and keep prices supported, although market sources have previously pointed out concerns over capacity and logistics which could limit the transition to a B50 mandate this year.  \nSeparately, a weaker Malaysian ringgit also supported buying sentiment for CPO futures, with the currency softening by around 0.27% against the US dollar on Tuesday and improving CPO’s buying appeal for overseas buyers. \nNonetheless, indications of better Malaysian production in June also kept buying sentiment in check, with the Southern Peninsular Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reporting June 1-15 production 13.79% higher on the month, signaling some production recovery after falling in May.  \nCPO futures trading on the BMD will also be paused on Wednesday June 17 due to a national holiday in Malaysia, with trading to resume on Thursday June 18.\nMeanwhile, Chinese vegoil futures moved higher across the board, with gains led by palm olein as the most active September contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose by 1.27% to close at 9,357 yuan ($1,385) per tonne, while the equivalent soybean oil contract inched up by 0.24% to close at 8,345 yuan per tonne, with gains capped by weaker CME soybean oil futures.\nThe September rapeseed oil futures contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange also rose by 0.27% to 9,869 yuan per tonne.  \nIn the cash market, CPO offers for July-shipment out of Indonesia were around $1,205 per tonne FOB Indonesia, while olein offers for the same month were at $1,125-1,130 per tonne FOB Indonesia.\nAn olein cargo for July-shipment was also washed out at $1,140 per tonne CFR China, while a September-shipment cargo was also washed out in the night of Monday June 15 at $1,148 per tonne CFR China.\nCPO offers to India for July-shipment were around $1,235.00-1,242.50 per tonne CFR west coast India (WCI) with bids at $1,227.50 per tonne CFR WCI, while offers for August-shipment were around $1,250 per tonne CFR WCI with buying ideas at $1,240 per tonne CFR WCI.\nSoybean oil\nSoybean oil for August-September shipment was also traded to India at $1,247-1,250 per tonne CFR WCI and for October-December shipment at $1,249-1,250 per tonne CFR WCI. \nOffers for nearby months were slightly higher compared with the previous day, with July-shipment cargoes offered at $1,262-1,270 per tonne CFR WCI, August-September shipment at $1,252-1,255 per tonne CFR WCI and October-December at $1,250-1,256 per tonne CFR WCI.\nOffers for sunflower oil remained firm with Black-Sea origin material offered around $1,450 per tonne CIF landed weight (LW) for July shipment, and Argentinian offers for August-September around $1,425 per tonne CIF, while buying interest remained lackluster with buyers covered and sunflower oil more expensive against rivals palm and soybean oil.  \nIn the Americas, CME soyoil futures traded with sharp losses on Tuesday, mainly pressured by a sharp decline in energy prices, amid growing hopes of an end in the US-Iranian conflict and the full re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz.\nThe most-active July CME soybean oil contract went down by 1.95% day on day to 72.92 cents per lb.\nCrude oil futures plunged in the session, weighing on soyoil, after hitting the lowest level since early March. The reported peace deal between the US and Iran raised expectations that the countries from the Persian Gulf could restore exports through the Strait of Hormuz.\nMarket participants also assessed an updated model under the revised 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit framework for Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (45ZCF-GREET) on Friday June 12.\nThe update incorporated provisions from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB), including the removal of indirect land-use change (ILUC) emissions from calculations beginning in 2026, alongside restrictions limiting eligible feedstocks to those produced or grown in the US, Canada and Mexico.\nSoymeal oil futures\nMeanwhile, CME soymeal futures traded with gains on Tuesday, in part driven by bullish prospects from market chatter that China would have purchased more US soybeans, while a product spreading dynamics with lower soyoil added a positive tone.\nThe most-active July CME soymeal contract went up by 0.93% day on day to $304.80 per short ton.\nIn Argentina, trading activity in the physical market was reportedly impacted on Tuesday by a deadlock in wage negotiations between oilseed workers’ unions and grain and by-product exporting companies, just two days before the expiration of a mandatory conciliation period.\nIn the physical market in South America, soyoil basis markets were slower amid losses in CME soyoil futures prices and the risk of an oilseed crush workers strike in Argentina.The July basis was assessed at a discount of 20.1 cents per lb in Argentina, 0.85 cents per lb above the previous assessment, while the corresponding basis in Brazil was assessed at a discount of 18.85 cents per lb to July futures, up by 1.35 cents per lb day on day.\nOn the soymeal front, the August basis in Brazil fell by $0.50 per short ton compared with the previous assessment, at parity to August futures.In Argentina, the corresponding soymeal basis fell $2 per ton compared with the previous price, assessed at a discount of $1.50 per ton to the same futures contract.\nAs of 5:30pm Central European time, Euronext August rapeseed futures were trading at €511.25 ($593) per tonne, down by €2 per tonne from the last market close.\nFOB Rotterdam rapeseed oil (RSO) prices broadly declined along the curve on Tuesday, tracking weakness in Paris‑listed rapeseed futures at the time of writing. \nMovements in the wider vegetable oils complex were mixed, while Canadian canola futures were firmer, offering some support. \nEven so, losses mounted amid falling underlying crude oil prices, which dropped to multi‑week lows following reports that the US and Iran have reached peace deal in the Middle East conflict. \nMeanwhile, market chatter during the session circulated that the August–September–October (ASO) strip traded a few times around the €1,150 per tonne mark, although these trades had not been confirmed by the time of publishing.\nMarket participants said buyers, particularly on the crush side, were likely looking to “lock in some volumes,” in the words of one trader, given the “decent looking margins at the moment.”\nFor July, offers were heard at €1,270 per tonne, with bids at €1,210 per tonne, while offers for ASO were reported at €1,152-1,60 per tonne, with bids at €1,140-1,150 per tonne. \nDown the curve, November-December-January (NDJ) offers stood at €1,152-1,160 per tonne, while bids for the strip stood at €1,144-1,149 per tonne. \nPrices for FOB sunflower oil (SFO) across six EU ports were broadly unchanged along the curve on Tuesday amid prolonged thin liquidity and a still‑wide gap between buyer and seller ideas. \nFor the July-August-September (JAS) window, offers were heard at $1,495 per tonne early in the session and were reported higher at $1,510 per tonne later in the session, with bids for the strip heard at $1,480-1,485 per tonne. \nDown the curve, October-November-December (OND) offers stood at $1,395-1,405 per tonne, while bids were mostly heard at $1,375 per tonne. \nIn the Black Sea SFO market, activity was very quiet, with no fresh trading reported out in the open. \nRussia-origin material offers were reported at $1,430-1,440 per tonne, while buy-side indications were heard at $1,410-1,415 per tonne.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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